Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 180401
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
901 PM MST Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Continued above normal temperatures. A fast moving
disturbance will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
night into Thursday, mainly near eastern mountains. Expect some
minor cooling Friday and Saturday, then near record high
temperatures are possible early next week as high pressure aloft
builds over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It was a relatively cloudy day across southern
Arizona today as we have been locked in under an expansive layer of
cirrus clouds thanks to a disturbance off to our southwest.
Dewpoints are still holding in the 40s across most of the area and
PWAT values continue to creep up towards the one inch mark according
to the 00z sounding. As a result, a few showers were able to develop
in southern Cochise County this evening. A quick moving shortwave
trough will result in a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
again Wednesday night into Thursday, though mainly north and east of
Tucson.

Otherwise, summer just doesn`t want to give up as high temperatures
are still running 5-10 degrees above normal. There looks to be a
very slight cool down in store for this weekend as another trough
skirts by our corner of the state, but it will be short-lived as
temperatures will quickly rebound due to high pressure building back
in overhead by the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 19/06Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8-12k ft AGL and SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL
thru the forecast period. Slight chance of -SHRA tonight, mainly
confined to Cochise County. SFC wind remains terrain driven and less
than 12 kts through Wednesday. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance will result in a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Dry conditions then settle in across the region
lasting into the middle of next week. Normal diurnal wind trends
continue through Thursday, becoming breezy Friday afternoon from the
southwest. An easterly wind regime then sets up for Sunday and
beyond.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Discussion...JKP
Aviation/Fire Weather...Howlett

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