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000
FXUS65 KTWC 121533
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 AM MST SAT APR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHOWING SOME BREAKS AS THE LOW
OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING. STILL RATHER
DRY IN LOWER LEVELS BUT A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE UNDER PATCHES OF
MAINLY VIRGA (ISOLATED AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS) AS SFC DEWPTS
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AFTER 1PM AS WE SEE LESS CLOUD COVER
IN GENERAL. CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WIND
ADVISORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON LOOK SOLID. MINOR UPDATES TO
TWEAK TEMPERATURES BACK UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR FIRST
PERIOD CLOUD TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUN NIGHT. APPEARS THAT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NE OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY NWLY WINDS EAST
OF TUCSON SUN AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SUN EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN CONUS MON WILL TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TUE-WED. THEREAFTER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR.
THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SEWD TOWARD THE NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST NEXT FRI. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL AMPLIFY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE UPSHOT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MON-FRI.

A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU MON FOLLOWED BY ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO
OF WARMING TUE. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO CONTINUE
WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/18Z.
EXPECT WSW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS IN SE AZ THIS AFTN THRU JUST AFTER
SUNSET. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY SE OF A LINE
FROM KFHU-KLSB INCLUDING KDUG VCNTY WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST.  SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS 13/05Z-18Z. PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD
THINNING CIRRUS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE
OF KSAD WHERE CLOUD DECKS AS LOW AS 8-12K FT AND ISOLD -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THRU 13/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151 AND
152...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153. THIS AREA
INCLUDES COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...SOUTHERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN
GREENLEE...SOUTHEAST PINAL AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES. THE ALPINE
RANGER DISTRICT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WARNING. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND A
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY IN
NORTHWEST WINDS MAINLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WIDESPREAD AND
LONG LIVED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR AZZ151>153.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR AZZ503-507>509-511>513.

&&

$$

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