Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

000
FXUS65 KTWC 122054
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Tue Mar 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild conditions will continue through
Wednesday. Then another storm system will impact the area Thursday
through the weekend and into early next week with cooler temperatures
and a chance of showers at times. Gusty winds should also accompany
this system as it approaches Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Beautiful afternoon with light winds, mild temperatures
and plenty of sunshine. Things will change as we progress through the
remainder of the week, however thanks to a passing weather system
followed by an upper level low settling over the region for an
extended period of time.

Wednesday, an upper level trough is beginning to deepen over the
western U.S. with a lead shortwave passing by to the north. This will
bring a few showers to the White Mountains and gusty winds to the
rest of the area during the afternoon hours. The strongest winds will
be east of Tucson but not strong enough for any headlines. Just a
good blustery afternoon. Cool advection will drop afternoon
temperatures back a few degrees with highs peaking 2-4 degrees below
average for the day.

Thursday, a second and much stronger system will move due south along
the AZ/CA border as a rather deep cutoff low. Scattered showers will
begin to pop up late morning into the early afternoon as the low
settles in for a long stay. The low will linger in place through
Friday with a decent bit of moisture over AZ for our best threat of
showers over a wide area for the event. We even have a chance for a
thunderstorm or two, mainly northeast of Tucson. Afternoon
temperatures will be even cooler yet and ending up 6-12 degrees
cooler than average Tucson westward and 2-6 degrees cooler to the
east.

The main band of moisture is expected to rotate north Friday night,
however the upper low looks to reconsolidate over the SW corner of
the state Saturday into Sunday, then wobble around a bit as it
gradually fills through Tuesday. This low and residual moisture
should result in widely scattered showers at times across the area
with a bit of an emphasis east of Tucson Sunday.

Beyond Tuesday the low has filled in the model world and westerly
flow has redeveloped over the region, although heights don`t rise
significantly or rapidly so the warmup will be gradual and subdued.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z.
SCT-BKN cirrus above 20k feet. SWLY-WLY SFC winds 8-15 kts easing to
variable less than 10 kts after 13/02Z. Wind increasing and becoming
SWLY-WLY 15-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts after 13/17Z. Strongest winds
east and south of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy Wednesday as a weather system
approaches the area. Although it will be rather breezy, humidity
levels and fuel moistures remain elevated so critical fire weather
conditions are not expected. A secondary weather system will drop
over the area from the north, bringing cooler temperatures, more
humidity and a threat of showers late Thursday into Monday with the
best chance for precipitation occurring on Friday where areas of
wetting rain are expected to help maintain the spring greenup.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.