Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
935 PM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail into early next week. Breezy
to windy conditions will occur Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure
system approaches from the west. Expect cooler temperatures Thursday
in wake of the low pressure system. A modest warming trend will then
occur this weekend, but daytime temperatures will remain at least a
few degrees below normal.


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this evening showed a clear sky
across southeast Arizona. The next upper level low that will bring
strong gusty winds to the area on Wednesday was approaching southern
California. Per 04z water vapor imagery, the center of the upper low
was about 350 miles west of Los Angeles. Latest model runs move this
low into southern California Wednesday afternoon with the pressure
gradient increasing across the area. This low will move across
central Arizona late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Not
really worried about wind advisory type wind speeds since the
tightest pressure gradient will happen during the evening/overnight
hours. However there will be fire weather related issues on
Wednesday where a red flag warning has been issued for southeastern
sections of the forecast area. Moisture is rather limited with this
system but can`t rule out a stray showers in the White Mountains on
Thursday as this area will be closest to the center of the upper
low. Temperatures will be quite pleasant as with highs on Thursday
running about 10 to 15 degrees below late May normals.


Mostly clear skies will prevail through at least Wednesday morning.
Winds mostly light/diurnal in speeds and directions anticipated
overnight. Very similar winds (slightly stronger) are expected late
Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect Wednesday afternoon
through early Wednesday evening for most of Fire Weather Zones 151
and 152 due to the combination of strong and gusty southwest winds,
low relative humidities and a high to very high fire danger.

Slow moving trough will approach the region on Wednesday and the
subsequent tightening pressure gradient will result in gusty winds
across the area. Dry air is already in place and that will remain
unchanged with afternoon humidities falling into the 5-15 percent
range. Isolated spots in fire weather zones 150 and 153 may briefly
reach criteria but these conditions are not expected to be
widespread enough for a warning at this time.

Beyond Wednesday dry conditions will continue into next week with
afternoon breezes each day, however winds are expected to remain
below red flag thresholds Thursday through the weekend.


    Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ151-152.



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