Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 182136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WAS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH THE NEXT ONE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/NORTHERN
BAJA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
AND NOGALES. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL THROUGH 19/06Z...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KOLS/KDUG WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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