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000
FXUS65 KTWC 082112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MUCH COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...THEN DRY AND WARMER TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG ENERGY CARVING DOWN THE FAR BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TRENDS ARE RATHER LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING
FROM 1/3 TO 1/2 INCH...SO STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER VERY
WELL COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BETTER MOISTURE FIELD WILL
WRAP IN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...FOCUSING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP BETWEEN
23Z-06Z EAST OF TUCSON (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NM BORDER AND DOUGLAS /
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAIN AREA BETWEEN 02Z-05Z).

WITH ORIENTATION OF RIDGE SHARPENING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
THROUGH THE PLAINS...RESIDUAL ENERGY WILL SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN SONORA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE KICKING EASTWARD
THROUGH MEXICO EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. AS THE IMPULSE SAGS INTO
SONORA EARLY SUNDAY...THE RESULTING ENHANCEMENT TO EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH THINGS TO BREEZY LEVELS SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A COOLER AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
COOLEST LEVELS OF THE PAST 3 WEEKS OR SO. THIS MEANS AROUND 27-30 IN
COLDEST COCHISE COUNTY VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING.

RIDGE LOSING AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT DOMINATING OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

STORM TRACK NORTH OF US NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER PATCH OF WEAK ENERGY
SAGGING BACK TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/ -SHRA FROM MAINLY E OF KTUS TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP AND ESPECIALLY -TSRA WILL OCCUR AT THE KDUG
TERMINAL. CLOUD DECKS THRU THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
5-9K FT AGL...THEN CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WILL BE NWLY TO NELY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. SURFACE
WIND LATE TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ELY 5-15 KTS WITH EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING AFTER 15Z SUNDAY MORNING TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME BREEZINESS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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