Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 200934
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEK AS WEATHER
SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JUST PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A PAIR OF IMPULSES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE STRONGER SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ECMWF IS TRYING TO SIGNAL A
PATTERN CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE CONSOLIDATING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE SPLIT BACK
INTO THE MAIN FLOW NEXT WEEK. I`M NOT SO SURE...WE`RE DUE...BUT IT
MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS CONSIDERING HOW BUSY THINGS
STILL ARE UPSTREAM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 21/12Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL LIGHT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING GUSTIER IN THE AFTERNOON...SLY/SWLY AT 12-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE A MODEST COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF 152...AND 10
TO 15 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 151...WHICH COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DRYING OF FINE FUELS...MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE ZONES. FIRE CREWS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL
ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. A MORE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT EXISTS ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN



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