Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 122000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
100 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST. DAILY CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MOST
STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT SOME
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RIM COUNTRY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ AND WC NM...MOVING WSW. WITH SEVERAL
UPPER FEATURES FOR SUPPORT...INCLUDING THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER
CHIHUAHUA...STORMS SHOULD BE STRONG/SEVERE INTO THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST PERSISTENT STORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR SE
OF TUCSON WHERE FLASH FLOOD REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT STORMS AND OUTFLOWS TO PUSH W THROUGH TUCSON METRO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST TO BE GENERATED DOWN VALLEY INTO
W PIMA AND SE PINAL COUNTIES.  A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY CONTINUES
UNTIL 9 PM.

THE HEART OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CROSS SONORA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO
SW AZ SUNDAY. THIS WILL FUEL STORMS AS THE MOISTURE MOVES UP THE
TERRAIN INTO SC/SE AZ SUNDAY AFTN.  A LINGERING DISTURBANCE SHOULD
ADD ENOUGH IMPETUS TO GENERATE STRONG STORMS SUNDAY.

MODELS DEPICT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT BASIN
HIGH AND ENTERING EC/SE AZ FROM THE EAST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DURING PEAK HEATING WHICH WOULD MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE BASIN HIGH MAY BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK BY A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN US. IF THE HIGH SETS UP OVER AZ AS INDICATED...THAT MAY
LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RAISE TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END...KD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/00Z.  SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
THRU 13/05Z.  SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AND
ISOLD GUSTS 50+ KTS.  FROM KTUS EAST LCL VSBY AOB 3SM +TSRA.  WEST
OF KTUS AFT 12/21Z LCL VSBY BLO 3SM IN BLOWING DUST DUE TO STRONG
T-STORM OUTFLOWS.  AFT 13/05Z CONVECTION DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED SCT
-SHRA/TSRA THEN INCREASING TO SCT TO NUMEROUS AGAIN AFT 13/20Z.
T-STORMS SFC WIND GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS EXCEPT NEAR T-STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET WITH LOCAL
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.  DUE TO RECENT RAINS MANY AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF.  LOCATIONS WEST OF TUCSON IN THE LOWER
DESERTS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONG
DOWNBURSTS.  STORMS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO
WEST.

SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER 1200.  THEREAFTER MONSOON MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK FOR DAILY CONVECTION.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

 FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM
  THIS EVENING FOR AZZ503-504-507-508-512-513.

 BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 9 PM
  THIS EVENING FOR AZZ502-504-505.

&&

$$

PUBLIC DROZD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER CERNIGLIA

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