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000
FXUS65 KTWC 181610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO PREVAIL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE PACIFIC NW
SEWD INTO SE AZ THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED FROM TUCSON WWD
WHILE SCATTERED MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/NRN COCHISE COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE EWD TODAY. THUS...SUNNY SKIES TODAY FROM TUCSON WWD
WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY ERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THRU TUE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUE...THEN
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EWD WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY THUR-FRI
AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE
TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN A RETURN OF BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THUR-FRI...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F COOLER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED FRIDAY. A GRADUAL DAILY WARMING TREND WILL
THEN OCCUR SUN-WED FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPS THUR-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL EAST OF KTUS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SKC AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
OR 19/12Z. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WLY/
NWLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST OF
KTUS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DAILY WARMING TREND. EXPECT
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING PARTICULARLY EAST OF TUCSON AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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