Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 211037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 AM MST Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Very hot temperatures will continue across the area
through this weekend with near or record breaking temperatures
forecast. Moisture around the area will bring a chance of
thunderstorms again Wednesday east and south of Tucson, but they
will be more likely to generate gusty outflow winds and lightning
than significant rain. A return to dry weather is forecast
Thursday and Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Debris cloud cover continues to thin across the area
as of 3 am. Temperatures were as warm as 24 hours but they will
still bottom out well above June normals. Surface dewpoints were
mostly in the 40s with precipitable water values in the 0.75" to 1"
range. A little less convective activity today versus Tuesday with
main threat once again being strong gusty outflow winds which may
cause havoc with ongoing wildfires along with developing areas of
blowing dust. Highs today will be at or slightly cooler than Tuesday.

Atmosphere dries out Thursday and Friday as upper high center
settles right over the area. Further south it will become more
active both days over the Sierra Madres. Thats good thing.

Very hot temperatures will continue thru the weekend where both the
Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory were extended into Sunday.

Models indicating a return of moisture from the east on Sunday as
back door cool front approaches the area. Thus a slight chance of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
Tucson Sunday and Monday. Will see some minor moisture seepage north
from Sonoran storms early next week with deeper moisture possible as
the week progress with the upper high shifting to a position
east of the. High temperatures early next week will gradually cool.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 22/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 8-15k ft AGL with isolated to scattered
-TSRA/-SHRA developing mainly east-to-south of KTUS this afternoon.
SFC wind mainly less than 12 kts, though brief gusts to 45 kts are
possible in/near the stronger TSRA. Precip chances will diminish
this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur
this afternoon, mainly east to south of Tucson. Thunderstorm
outflows will produce brief strong, gusty and erratic winds. Dry
conditions will return area-wide Thursday and Friday. A more typical
monsoonal pattern will develop this weekend, with a few showers and
storms on Saturday, followed by better coverage Sunday and Monday
afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage of thunderstorms will
be mainly east to south of Tucson. In general, 20-foot winds will be
terrain driven at less than 15 mph. The exception will likely be
Thursday afternoon, when gusty northwest winds should prevail,
especially northeast of Tucson and across the Upper Gila River
Valley including Safford.


All time record highs across the region

                     RECORD_DATE AND YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT  117 6/26/1990
BISBEE-DOUGLAS ARPT  110 6/26/1994
AJO                  117 7/5/2007, 7/6 2007 and 7/31/1995
FORT THOMAS          115 6/26/1990
KITT PEAK             98 7/30/1995
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS    118 7/15/1998, 7/26/1995 and 6/26/1990
PICACHO PEAK         119 7/28/1995
SAFFORD AG STATION   114 6/30/1994
SIERRA VISTA FD      108 7/4/1989
TOMBSTONE            112 7/4/1989
WILLCOX              110 6/28 AND 6/29/1994, 6/26/1990 and 7/6/2005

Daily record highs today and Thursday

DATE                      Jun 21     Jun 22
                          RCD/YR     RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT      112/1990   114/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT   105/1990   106/1990
AJO                      115/1919   115/1960
FORT THOMAS              109/2005   112/1961
KITT PEAK                 94/1979    92/1988
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS        114/1968   113/1955
PICACHO PEAK             116/2005   113/1988
SAFFORD AG STATION       109/1960   108/1960
SIERRA VISTA FD          103/1990   104/2012
TOMBSTONE                106/1996   109/1929
WILLCOX                  106/1968   106/1990


 Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ510>514.

 Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509-515.



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