Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 270400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS HAS SLID ONSHORE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND IS
STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF FLATTENING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 140W/45N AS PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. 27/04Z DEWPOINTS
WERE CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 10-20
DEGS HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 4-10 DEGS WARMER THAN 24 HRS AGO. A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING...WHICH WILL THEN HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS TO 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND TONIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING
SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...AND THEN EVENTUALLY THRU THE
GREAT BASIN. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO MON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT-TUE AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/130W AROUND MIDDAY TUE. THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS
OR MORE AGO. THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER FOR NEXT
TUE-WED VERSUS PREVIOUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED A MUCH
LESS AMPLIFIED EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR MON NIGHT-WED...HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.
POPS WERE DECREASED TUE...AND NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA WIDE. HAVE THEN MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF SE AZ TUE NIGHT-WED. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WED.

HIGH TEMPS THANKSGIVING DAY THRU SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10
DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN-MON FOLLOWED BY MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING TUE-WED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS







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