Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 280338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&




&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/23Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND
DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO GOOD NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY THRU SUNDAY WITH SATURDAY LIKELY SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS
SETTING OR TYING RECORDS HIGHS VERSUS TODAY AND SUNDAY. HERE ARE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THEN THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR
MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

DATE                     MARCH 28TH     MARCH
29TH                           RCD/YR     FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       94/1988     93  91/1943    90  91/1943
AJO                       98/1988     94  97/1988    92  93/1943
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         98/1988     94  94/1986    91  98/1971
PICACHO PEAK              94/1988     94  92/1988    92  93/2004
NOGALES                   87/1986     89  84/1986    86  85/1967
FORT THOMAS               90/1988     89  87/1986    87  86/2012
SAFFORD                   91/1988     87  91/1988    86  89/1953
SIERRA VISTA              84/1988     84  82/1967    82  83/2012
TOMBSTONE                 84/1988     84  87/1917    82  86/1943
WILLCOX                   86/1988     84  89/1916    81  88/1916
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT    87/1988     85  85/2012    82  85/2012

TUCSON AIRPORT HIT 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2015 AT 113 PM.
THIS IS NEARLY TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE DATE OF
APRIL 9TH. HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH
29TH...SO BASED ON RECENT HISTORY...RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SUNNY WARM LATE MARCH DAY ACROSS SE AZ AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR FOR 2015 THRU THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW LOCALS MIGHT APPROACH RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A WIDESPREAD RECORD DAY WITH A FEW AGAIN ON
SUNDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

STILL LOOKING AT A WEAK TROF MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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