Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272255
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 PM MST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER NRN NEVADA AND NRN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SWD FROM THIS UPPER LOW INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SWRN NEVADA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SE ARIZONA TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SEWD INTO FAR SRN NEVADA/
NWRN ARIZONA AROUND DAYBREAK THUR.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED VIA THE 27/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC TO WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT THUR WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN ARIZONA. A VERY TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THUR AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THUR EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR LOCALES EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. PLEASE REFER TO
AWIPS PRODUCT PHXNPWTWC /WMO HEADER WWUS75 KTWC/ FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAIL. THE STRONG AND GUSTY MOSTLY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE WILLCOX PLAYA
THUR AFTERNOON AND EARLY THUR EVENING.

ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS
FORECAST AREA THUR...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL JUSTIFY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THUR EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON.
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST-TO-
NORTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THUR NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRI AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF GRAHAM/NRN
GREENLEE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN ARIZONA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUN...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS NRN ARIZONA BY SUN EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT-MON. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT-WED IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 3-10 DEGS COOLER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON THE LOCATION. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN DAYTIME TEMPS FRI FROM TUCSON EWD...BUT HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGS WARMER VERSUS THUR ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. WARMER TEMPS
WILL OCCUR AREA-WIDE SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR COOLING SUN.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR MON FOLLOWED BY MUCH
WARMER TEMPS NEXT TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL TONIGHT THEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AFT
28/17Z...MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND SWLY/WLY AT 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING
SURFACE WIND AFT 28/14Z...THEN SURFACE WIND SWLY/WLY 20-30 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30-45 KTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST SURFACE WIND WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG...KALK AND KFHU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 151 AND MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE
      SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF AZZ151 AND MUCH OF AZZ152.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ507>509-
      511>513.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ


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