Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 161556
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATER TODAY. WINDS WERE LIGHT BUT
WILL BE PICKING UP IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
1PM UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON
TRACK...SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING GUSTY
WLY WINDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE GENERALLY WLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KDUG TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR
SPECIFICALLY EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A SAFFORD TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS
WIND WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-
SURFACE REGIME...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...
EXCEPT BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ EARLY THIS MORNING
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS MAINLY OVER SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE
COUNTIES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME
CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 10Z GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS. THE BULK OF THE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA TODAY AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING GUSTY WLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. HAVE
DEPICTED PATCHY BLOWING DUST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

16/00Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR MORNING. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF WERE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ THUR NIGHT-FRI. THUS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THUR NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRI MORNING...THEN
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EWD. THE MAIN CONCERN FRI
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DRY MICROBURSTS.

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRI EVENING EWD ACROSS ARIZONA SAT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
DRIER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT
ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS SAT APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY SAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE SAT
NIGHT-TUE AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY TRANSITIONS TO SWLY FLOW
ALOFT NEXT TUE. THE TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT TUE AFTERNOON
WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THUR WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL. COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR FRI...THEN A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MST THIS
    EVENING FOR AZZ152.

&&

$$

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