Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. PATTERN BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
NEXT WEEK FOR AN UPSWING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN ACTION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ACROSS COCHISE
COUNTY WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTIES ARE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 02Z RUN
OF THE HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY
10 PM AND THEN WEAKENING AND THEN INTO EASTERN PINAL COUNTY BY 11
PM. EARLIER THIS EVENING MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING
FORECAST BASED ON ABOVE THINKING WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE TUCSON VALLEY BUT BETTER CHANCE IN THE RINCON/CATALINA MOUNTAINS
THRU MIDNIGHT.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE KINDA SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE W.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/03Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8K FT AGL WITH ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
25/09Z...MAINLY E AND NE OF KTUS. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCE...SFC
WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN
12 KTS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY... COVERAGE OF ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL MAINLY BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION A BIT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OCCURRING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN LIKELY ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS IN AND AROUND STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

!--NOT SENT--!


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