Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260417
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MUCH NICER DAY TODAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MANY
LOCATIONS REACHING HIGHS 5-10 DEGS WARMER THAN TUESDAY. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THIS CWA...BUT THEY
SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 26/04Z WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 30S. STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANT
DAY TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREE JUMP
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST IS MIRRORING THE CURRENT TRENDS
WELL...SO DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL REGARDING THIS WEEKENDS
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS SOME PASSING CLOUDS AOA
25K FT AGL. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE WITH SOME
ELEVATED WLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY...WITH A
FOCUS ON AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE A WARM AND DRY
DAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ON SATURDAY...GENERALLY 20-30 MPH WITH STRONGER WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST...WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY SUNDAY. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...NICE WARMUP AFTER CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH
TONIGHT BEING A BIT WARMER.

DRY FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND. A PAIR OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO NE AZ WITH
THE WHITES ON THE SRN FRINGES WITH FRIDAY SEEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

THE NEXT WINTER STORM WILL START TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH AREAS S AND E OF TUCSON APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH WIND IS
MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MIGHT SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOISTURE START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WINTER STORM.

STILL ON TRACK WITH THE AREA HAVING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE SLOWED A BIT SO HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
WITH FURTHER TWEAKS LIKELY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. I DID RAISE
POPS A LITTLE BIT MORE AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO RISE. HOWEVER
STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT ON NAILING DOWN 48-HOUR LIQUID QPF TOTALS
BUT EARLY GUESS HAS 0.50"-1.50" WEST OF A CLIFTON-SIERRA VISTA LINE
WITH LESS THAN A HALF INCH E OF THE ABOVE LINE. AGAIN THESE TOTALS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START OFF RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY...FALL TO 7500-8500 FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND 6000-7000 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WITH LIQUID
QPF...STILL WAY TO EARLY ON TOTAL SNOWFALL BUT EARLY GUESS HAS UP TO
A FOOT ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE CATALINA AND RINCON AND 12"-20" FOR
THE PINALENO AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT UNSETTLED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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