Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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124
FXUS65 KTWC 080412
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 08/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE
AND IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST. THESE CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF MEXICO AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS. WITH ARIZONA
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD STILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THESE CLOUDS BECOMING LESS
EXPANSIVE AND THINNER AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 54 DEGS...AFTER REACHING A HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
OF 72 DEGS...WHICH WAS 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. INHERITED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MOST
RECENT TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 09/06Z.
VFR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH A
FEW AFTERN0ON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

BEYOND THAT...ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST. THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH SIGNS OF THE
ECMWF RESPONDING TO THIS AS ONE MIGHT HOPE...A WETTER AND LESS
CONSOLIDATED PATTERN THAT WOULD FEATURE ONE OR MORE STORMS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC LATER THIS MONTH. THE EARLY SIGNS OF THE PATTERN
CHANGE ARE SHOWING UP IN A REASONABLE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD
TREATMENT OF THIS AT 200 TO 240 HOURS. A LOOK AT GFS OUTPUT PAST 240
HOURS ACTUALLY GRABS ON TO THIS NICELY...FINALLY OPENING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UP TO A WET TRAJECTORY SYSTEM AFTER THE 18TH.

THE QUESTION IS WHAT NEXT? THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS WON`T BE JUST A
1 SHOT DEAL LIKE THE FEB 1ST STORM. THERE ARE SOME SOLID HINTS OF
GOOD H5 5760M ENSEMBLE TRENDS WITH THE GEFS PAST 300 HOURS SHOWING A
FAVORABLE ZONAL CONSOLIDATION OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. OBVIOUSLY
MORE TIME TO LOOK THINGS OVER...HOWEVER A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN IS
TRYING VERY HARD TO RETURN LATER THIS MONTH AND IT`S NOT BEING
CONJURED OUT OF THIN AIR. THIS WOULD BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT CPC WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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