Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 180946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
246 AM MST Tue Apr 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry weather will persist into at least
early next week. Occasional high clouds, and gusty afternoon
winds at times as systems brush by to our north.


.DISCUSSION...Weak ridging will buckle over the next 48 to 72 hours
as a system digs into the Great Basin north of our area. We`ll
continue with dry conditions this far south (current precipitable
water around 1/3 of an inch and surface dew points in the teens).
We`ll pick up a little more wind however, and daytime highs will
drop a degree or two (remaining well above average though).

A sneakily strong ridge will phase in from the west over the
weekend with thickness values that support temperatures in the mid
to upper 90s at Tucson International Airport. Our first 95+ is a
good bet with temperatures around 10 to 12 (and maybe 15) degrees
above climatology across Southeast Arizona on Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z.
VFR with patchy cirrus. Normal diurnal wind trends, gusty at
times in the afternoon.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above average daytime
temperature will continue into early next week. Minimum daytime
humidities will be in the single digits and teens. For the most
part, 20-foot winds will follow normal diurnal trends at less than
15 mph with occasional afternoon gustiness through Wednesday. A
dry weather system will pass north of the area Thursday into
Friday, with breezy conditions for much of Southeast Arizona. This
may create critical fire weather conditions for isolated spots
mainly east of Tucson on Thursday and Friday. Another round of
breezy to locally wind conditions are possible Sunday and Monday.






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