Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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317
FXUS65 KTWC 201716
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1016 AM MST Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A passing system will bring breezy conditions today and
cooler temperatures Saturday and Saturday night. Another strong high
pressure system will push temperatures rapidly back up, with near
record high temperatures expected the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The 12Z KTWC sounding showed a drop in precipitable
water back below 3/4 of an inch along with increasing winds
aloft. The trough pushing through western states is on schedule to
enhance the surface gradient to breezy levels by this afternoon.
Cooler air behind the associated cold front should push
temperatures back closer to normal Saturday. Please see the
previous discussion and climate section below for additional
details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 21/18Z.
Clearing from the west today. SFC wind increasing and becoming
SWLY/WLY at 12-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts by 20/18Z (highest
speeds east of KTUS). SFC wind decreasing to less than 12 kts aft
21/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail into next Thursday.
Expect breezy southwest to west winds today into Saturday, followed
by occasionally gusty east winds early next week. Clear skies and
light winds developing Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A system passing north of the area will bring
gusty winds this afternoon, followed by cooler temperatures this
weekend. The cooler air mass combined with light winds and clear
skies will give way to noticeably colder morning lows Sunday and
Monday. That said, a few of the coldest valley spots in Cochise
County (such as Sulphur Springs Valley) will approach or reach
freezing both mornings. Thereafter, models showed a ridge of high
pressure aloft building back over the region resulting in a rapid
warming trend Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. Projected high
temperatures will be near or at record readings Monday into
Wednesday. This warm up will gradually come to an end late next
week as the high pressure ridge aloft weakens.

&&

.CLIMATE...90 degree days at Tucson International Airport continue
to mount, with the 179th day of 90+ degree high temperatures for
2017 yesterday. This breaks the record of 178 days which occurred
in 1910 and 1989. More to come.

After a break over the weekend, record or near record high
temperatures are likely early next week as an unseasonably strong
ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the area. Current forecast
high of 97 for Tucson Intl next Tuesday would be the second latest
occurrence of 97 in the calendar on record. The record latest date
is Oct 27 2016. There is also a small chance next Tuesday that the
high at Tucson Intl could hit 98, which, if that happens, would be
the latest occurrence of 98 in the calendar on record, besting the
current latest date of Oct 19 in 1921 & 1991.

         Tucson International Airport
             Forecast  Record
Mon Oct 23      95       94
Tue Oct 24      97       96
Wed Oct 25      94       95

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer

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