Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 201603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
903 AM MST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WE`LL SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEK AS WEATHER
SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 20/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND WESTERN ARIZONA.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 69
DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 58 DEGS...WHICH WAS 4 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE. THESE READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO
THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL TWEAK SHORT
TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MOST RECENT TRENDS.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 21/12Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL LIGHT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
MORNING BECOMING GUSTIER IN THE AFTERNOON...SLY/SWLY AT 12-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE A MODEST COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF 152...AND 10
TO 15 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 151...WHICH COMBINED WITH
SEVERAL DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DRYING OF FINE FUELS...MAY LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE ZONES. FIRE CREWS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL
ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. A MORE LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT EXISTS ON THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...JUST PATCHES OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN
OTHERWISE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A PAIR OF IMPULSES APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA AS THE STRONGER SECOND SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.

HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ECMWF IS TRYING TO SIGNAL A
PATTERN CHANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO WHILE CONSOLIDATING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN LATITUDE SPLIT BACK
INTO THE MAIN FLOW NEXT WEEK. I`M NOT SO SURE...WE`RE DUE...BUT IT
MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS CONSIDERING HOW BUSY THINGS
STILL ARE UPSTREAM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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