Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 171704
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1004 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...
SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8 AM PDT/MST...TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED
AT LATITUDE 30.6 N; LONGITUDE 113.3 W...WHICH IS ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO  AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF ODILE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENT MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF
OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH
INCLUDES TUCSON METRO. EARLIER THIS MORNING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
WAS ISSUED FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY...JUST WEST OF THE
SAFFORD AREA...WHICH INCLUDES THE TOWN OF PIMA. REPORTS FROM LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN WAS
IMPACTING ASH CREEK RESULTING IN ROAD CLOSURES...WITH A FEW HOMES
IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. THIS HIGH WATER AND RESULTING
FLASH FLOODING WAS DUE TO 2.6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN WITHIN
THE PAST 6 HOURS UPSTREAM OF THAT AREA. THE WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 1130 AM MST...UNLESS THE NEED ARISES FOR US TO EXTEND THE
WARNING.

THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES
THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST OF THE
TUCSON AREA NEAR SELLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
IMPACTING AREAS EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION...INCLUDING TUCSON...
NOGALES AND AREAS TO THE EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE WEST OF THIS CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING THE INDICATE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO NEAR 5 INCHES FOR
TUCSON...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE 12Z NAM12 WAS THE
OUTLIER WITH A BULLSEYE OF 4.5 INCHES...WHEREAS THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWED VALUES RANGING FROM 2.0-3.0 INCHES. OUR OFFICIAL QPF FORECAST
FALLS WITHIN THIS MORE CONSERVATIVE RANGE. THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND INTO COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
WITH STORM TOTAL VALUES RANGING FROM PERHAPS 3 TO 4 INCHES AND NEAR
6 TO 7 INCHES FOR SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

NOT EXPECTING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FLOODING ON CREEKS AND WASHES IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE
GILA...SAN PEDRO...SANTA CRUZ...THE RILLITO...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.
SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS/WASHES OF CONCERN INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO: SABINO...ALAMO... PANTANO...BRAWLEY...AND THE NOGALES
WASH. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/10Z
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE REMAINS OF ODILE PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT LOWERING
CEILINGS TODAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 12 TO 20 KTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOPING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG MOISTURE PUSH FROM ODILE NOW WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LAST NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.85 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE AND ATMOSPHERE
CONVERTING TO A MORE TROPICAL PROFILE. ODILE IS STILL TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH MAINTAINING 50MPH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS AND AS OF 2AM WAS
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MOVING NNE AT 6MPH. LATEST
TRACK HAS HER MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN ABOUT 35 TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF
PUERTO PENASCO LATER THIS MORNING. BY THE TIME SHE REACHES SOUTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY SHE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND PROBABLY WEAKENED TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH. A POSITION 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF TUCSON IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.

THERE WERE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVERNIGHT INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN
NEAR THE VAMORI WASH AND FRESNAL CANYON AREAS SOUTH OF SELLS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...BUT INTENSITY IS DOWN SOMEWHAT AT
THIS HOUR AS WE CYCLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER MARKED AND MORE
WIDESPREAD INTENSITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE NEAR TO EAST OF THE PATH OF ODILE WHICH PUTS AREAS FROM
SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS
HAVE QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL RAPIDLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EASTWARD.

PLENTY OF RESIDUAL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RECIRCULATE OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR A SOLID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ECMWF HAS A
SECONDARY HIGH LATITUDE LOW FURTHER SHARPEN POSSIBLE STORMS AS
WELL...SO WE PROBABLY WON`T SHUT DOWN AFTER ODILE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
   AZZ501>504-507-508-512>515.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
   AZZ505-506-509>511.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW






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