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000
FXUS65 KTWC 060326
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST WED MAR 5 2014

&&

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. A COOLING TREND THEREAFTER WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW INFLUENCING THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ALONG WITH A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS IN EASTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DIRTYING UP RIDGE THIS
EVENING AS AXIS PHASES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES...THE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS GAINS THURSDAY WILL MAKE
FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. FLOW
BUCKLING A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES
PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY NORTH OF US.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAINLY BE SEEN IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN EASTERN PORTIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SATURDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE AND PUSH THE TROUGH SOUTH...SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
INDICATING THAT THIS COULD CREATE A CUT OFF LOW THAT PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IN THIS SCENARIO PRECIPITATION AND WIND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
FELT AREA WIDE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH.

STARTING SUNDAY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THIS
COULD LEAD TO AREA WIDE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS. A SWATH OF WARM
AIR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BEGIN WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WHILE MODELS ARE TENDING TO AGREE AT THE MOMENT...THERE HAVE BEEN
NOTEWORTHY CHANGES RUN TO RUN. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TO A CUT
OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NEXT MODEL RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/03Z. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ABOVE
15K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS THROUGH THURSDAY.  A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
RESULT MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON BOTH DAYS...THEN EASTERLY BREEZES ARE
PREDICTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.  A MODEST COOLDOWN TOWARD NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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