Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 290221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
721 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WHICH SUPPORT REMOVING POPS. HAD DONE THIS EARLIER THOUGH
HAVE TRENDED THEM DOWN AGAIN GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SKC CONDITIONS UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN WEAK CU
FIELD WILL AGAIN DEVELOP EAST OF KTUS. WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS...THOUGH
BRIEF GUST TO NEAR 18 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MINUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THRU THE MONDAY EVENING. DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY...THEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NEVADA WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
BEYOND...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO NORTHERN SONORA.

RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
HOWEVER...STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN TOPS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO BY LATE MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A
TROUGH BRUSHES BY NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SEVERAL
DEGREES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING
THAT TIME. DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY MORNING...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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