Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
605 FXUS65 KTWC 081534 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 834 AM MST Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Low-grade monsoon pattern this week with most of the daily storm activity being east and south of Tucson. Hotter daytime temperatures through Thursday with Wednesday likely the hottest day this week where an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect. && .DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies this morning with the exception of western Cochise, Santa Cruz and portions of eastern Pima County where there is a pocket of considerable mid level cloudiness. The mid/upper level pattern this morning consists of an area of high pressure at 500mb centered over south central Arizona with the 250mb high displaced a bit further south near to just south of the international border. Lower level storm motion/steering flow today will be towards the west to southwest. PWAT values range from 0.8 inches over the White Mountains to about 1.3 inches over the western deserts. With the mid/upper level high nearby providing some subsidence aloft, the ongoing forecast thinking of a low grade monsoon pattern remains intact. This is reflected the latest 12Z HREF/CAMS which show the bulk of the thunderstorm activity this afternoon forming near or just south of the international border from Nogales eastward with a secondary area across the higher terrain of Graham/Greenlee County and adjacent Gila region in NM. These storms will attempt to push southwest off the higher terrain before eventually weakening. Elsewhere just some isolated storms that will try to form on the higher terrain. Main concern today will be strong gusty winds considering the DCAPEs of 1200-1800 J/KG. A few heavy downpours and locally heavy rain primarily in the more moisture laden airmass down near the international border. Current forecast looks in good shape. No updates. See previous discussion for additional information. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. SKC to FEW-SCT 12-15k ft AGL thru 08/18z, then SCT-BKN 7-12k ft AGL with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA mainly S/SE of KTUS thru 09/04Z with CIGS BKN 5-8k ft AGL and gusty outflow up to 45 kts. Skies will then become SKC-FEW 12-15k ft AGL overnight. SFC winds generally WLY 8-13 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Although Southeast Arizona will be experiencing a low-grade monsoon pattern this week, isolated to low-end scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected to the south and southeast of Tucson for the next several days. The main threat for storms will be the potential for strong gusty and erratic outflow winds 40-45 mph. Otherwise, an eventual uptick in monsoon activity is possible the second half of the week into next weekend as the upper high shifts to a more favorable location aloft. Temperatures will be above normal this week with hottest temperatures mid- week. Winds generally light and under 15 mph with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up to 35-45 mph near any thunderstorms. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed clear to partly cloudy skies across the area. The 08/00z 500 mb chart placed strong upper high between Tucson and El Paso. This high will be the dominate weather maker this week as it strengthens over the state, bringing hotter daytime temperatures through Thursday and keeping the area in a low-grade monsoon pattern into this weekend with most of the daily storm activity being east and south of Tucson. With low-grade monsoon pattern this week will highlight the potential activity for today. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening will be east and south of Tucson with 08/00z HREF focusing the threat of a few severe thunderstorms over southeast Graham and southern Greenlee counties where inverted-v profiles will exist with DCAPE values between 1800- 1900 j/kg mid-afternoon to early evening. HREF has 10% neighborhood probability for wind gusts in excess of 50 kts over SE Graham, SRN Greenlee and NE Cochise. Yesterday there was some blowing dust near San Simon and can see that happening again later this afternoon into this evening. Matched up with El Paso with highlighting this area, especially along I-10 east of Willcox, for blowing dust. Temperatures: Hottest day of the week will be tomorrow (Wed) where there is an Excessive Heat Warning in effect. See climate section below for listing of locations that will be near July 9th record highs. After Thursday, highs cool a bit but will remain 2-5 degrees above normal. && .CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY DATE Jul 09 FCST RCD/YR TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 110 111/2024 AJO 113 116/2024 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 111 116/1958 PICACHO PEAK 109 113/1994 SAFFORD AG STATION 110 108/2024 SIERRA VISTA FD 101 104/2024 TOMBSTONE 102 106/1979 WILLCOX 105 109/2003 && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ501-502-504>506-509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson