Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with below normal daytime temperatures and
gusty afternoon winds will prevail this week. Expect windy
conditions across much of the area Wednesday as a low pressure
system approaches from the west.


Mid morning water vapor imagery continues to reveal dry
southwesterly flow across the SW CONUS as several areas of low
pressure remain quasi-stationary across the Pac NW and southern
Canada. 12Z KTUS sounding reveals a very similar thermal profile
compared to Sunday morning with very similar temperatures from the
surface through 600mb. Not surprisingly morning readings across the
area are generally within a few degrees of this time yesterday (mid
70s as of 16Z).

Forecast for today will be very similar to Sunday with desert
temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lighter winds. Aside
from minor adjustments to hourly temperatures based on observations,
no significant changes have been made for today`s forecast.


Clear skies will prevail across much of southeast Arizona into
Tuesday morning. A few cirrus clouds above 25K ft MSL will occur
mainly this morning near the New Mexico border. Surface wind this
afternoon and early this evening will be swly/wly at 12-20 kts with
gusts to near 25 kts. Surface wind will be variable in direction
generally less than 10 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF ammendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday evening for much of Fire Weather Zones
151 and 152. The combination of strong and gusty southwest winds and
low relative humidity may create widespread critical fire weather

Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail into early next week. Daytime
minimum relative humidity will generally range from the upper single
digits to mid teens with fair overnight recoveries. Expect gusty
mainly southwest winds during the afternoon and early evening hours.


The deterministic 23/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC and associated ensembles
remain similar with depicting a mean longwave trough over the
western CONUS into early next week. This pattern will translate into
dry conditions across southeast Arizona through Sunday. A persistent
and fairly tight mid-level gradient across the area will provide
gusty generally southwest winds this afternoon and again Tuesday
afternoon. Somewhat stronger winds will then occur Wednesday
afternoon as the mid-level gradient tightens ahead of a digging
closed upper low moving eastward across southern California. Wind
speeds Wednesday afternoon will likely approach or may exceed Wind
Advisory criteria mainly across Cochise County, and patchy or areas
of blowing dust will certainly be possible. The mid-level gradient
will loosen Thursday and Friday for less wind, but will tighten
again somewhat next weekend in response to the next upper low over
the Pacific Northwest. Expect no significant change in daytime temps
through Tue, with high temps to average about 2-7 degs or so below
normal, depending upon location. A few degs of daily cooling will
then occur Wed-Thur followed by a warming trend Fri-Sun.


    Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
      evening for AZZ151-152.



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