Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
243 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...We will continue to have enough moisture for a chance
of thunderstorms into next week, especially from Tucson eastward.


.DISCUSSION...With the influx of moisture below 500mb over the
past 24 hours we are back up to normal monsoon levels with
precipitable water values around 1.3 to 1.5 and surface dew
points near 60. An eager atmosphere kicked things off around mid
morning in a nice convergent area southwest through south of
Tucson. If we could have cooked a little longer we might have
managed to get a little more explosive, however coverage has been
good overall with spotty heavy rainers. Our area of emphasis in
the late afternoon and early evening will shift north, northeast
and east of Tucson.

An approaching mid level weakness from the west may keep a few
showers going overnight. The timing for this feature may not be
very good for tomorrow, with some drying again wrapping in under
this feature by tomorrow afternoon. The area of focus for best
storm development will probably shift eastward into Cochise,
Graham and Greenlee counties Saturday and Sunday.

Beyond that, we should manage enough moisture for a chance of
thunderstorms deep into the new week, especially from Tucson
eastward. Best days looking like Wednesday and maybe Thursday.


.AVIATION...Scattered thunderstorms through the early evening
hours with brief MVFR conditions associated with stronger storms.
Normal diurnal wind trends outside of strong and erratic
thunderstorm outflows. Partial clearing after 27/03Z, but a few
showers will hang on overnight.


.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing storm coverage is expected through the
weekend as moisture increases from the south/southeast. 20-foot
winds into early next week will be terrain driven and less than 15
mph in most locations. Expect the potential for strong and gusty
winds near any thunderstorms that do develop.






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