Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 210912
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. THEN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES.  NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY FILLING NOW NEAR FAR SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO. MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORMS VERY FAR AWAY
FROM MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN STORY THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PREFERRED ECMWF STILL SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED...HOWEVER GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CATCHING UP ENOUGH
FOR A GOOD FORECAST BLEND. THICKNESS REGRESSION SUPPORTS NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MOS CATCHING UP TO THIS
IDEA NOW. 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 165 TO 165.5DAM SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 9-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHICH IS ABOUT A 93
TO 94 AT TIA FRIDAY. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 IT WOULD BE ONE OF
THE LATEST 95S ON RECORD FOR TUCSON (THE LATEST ON RECORD IS OCT 26
IN BOTH 1934 AND 2001). NEAR RECORD VALUES ACROSS SE AZ
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD DUE TO ORIENTATION AND
TIMING ISSUES OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PHASING
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HOWEVER LOWER LEVELS STILL RESPONSIVE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THICKNESSES LAG AT HIGHER LEVELS.

COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH TROUGH TO START THE NEW WEEK...BUT DRY THIS
FAR SOUTH. IT SHOULD EASILY KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO. COOLEST NIGHT OF THE YOUNG SEASON SO FAR
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/09Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AFT 21/20Z SCT CLOUDS
8-12KFT AGL WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY NEAR NEW MEXICO.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOWS NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL
IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AREA WIDE FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN




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