Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300412
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 PM MST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL KICK UP A FAIRLY STRONG
WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF TUCSON LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN THANKS TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM IS
QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR RENO NEVADA. THE
INITIAL IMPACT WILL BE TO GENERATE A DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR CURRENT WIND FORECAST SEEMED
A BIT LOW CONSIDERING THE CONTINUED TREND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY SO I ADJUSTED THE WIND FORECAST UPWARD FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BY A FEW KNOTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SATURDAY
FORECAST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

THE STORM WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN EVENING THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CATALINAS. IN CONCERT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD A BIT NORTH OF TUCSON FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WHICH NUDGES IT A BIT MORE TOWARD SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS.

THE SYSTEM THEN OPENS UP SUNDAY AS IT HEADS INTO NEW MEXICO WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND THAT LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.

REMAINDER FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL RAPIDLY SUN EVENING...AND A BAGGY UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER SE ARIZONA LATE SUN NIGHT/MON. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE MON NIGHT-THUR NIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE AREA BY WED...THEN MOVES EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES THUR. THEREAFTER...29/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED NEAR LOS
ANGELES CALIF MIDDAY FRI. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO POTENTIALLY IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA.

THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE TO OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THESE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FAIRLY
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE VERY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT AND COMPONENT MAY POTENTIALLY POSE
BLOWING DUST CONCERNS PARTICULARLY FOR LOCALES THAT EXPERIENCED VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES EARLIER THIS WEEK.

WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SAT FOLLOWED BY SOME MINOR COOLING SUN.
EXPECT ABOUT 5-8 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING MON FOLLOWED BY 5 DEGS OF
DAILY WARMING TUE-WED. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SHOULD THEN OCCUR THUR
FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING NEXT FRI.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF KTUS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
THEN EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 30/17Z. SURFACE
WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS
AND GUSTS TO 25-35 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONCE
AGAIN WITH 20 FT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH FAIRLY
COMMON. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS EAST OF NOGALES WILL LIKELY BE A
BIT STRONGER AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS
POINT...NOT ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS
MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NOGALES TO SAN SIMON OVER
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. LESS WIND IS
THEN EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH
AN INCREASE IN WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

PUBLIC...CERNIGLIA
AVIATION....CERNIGLIA
FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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