Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270910
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 AM MST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING AS A
STRONG AND EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES...EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUCSON SHOULD HIT THE
90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME OF THE YEAR TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CREST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WHEN MANY RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

ONCE THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
FOR TUESDAY AND THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. KTUS MAY EXPERIENCE
SELY SURFACE WIND WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KTS THIS MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR TO GOOD NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON THE 28TH. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS
FOR MARCH 28TH AND 29TH.

LOCATION                   MARCH 28TH      MARCH 29TH
TUCSON INTNL AIRPORT       91 IN 1943      91 IN 1943
AJO                        97 IN 1988      93 IN 1943
PICACHO PEAK               92 IN 1988      93 IN 2004
NOGALES                    84 IN 1986      85 IN 1967
SAFFORD                    91 IN 1988      89 IN 1953
SIERRA VISTA               82 IN 1967      83 IN 2012
TOMBSTONE                  91 IN 1917      86 IN 1943
WILLCOX                    89 IN 1916      88 IN 1916
DOUGLAS                    85 IN 2012      85 IN 2012

THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE IN TUCSON IS APRIL 9TH.
HOWEVER SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE IS MARCH 29TH. SO BASED ON
RECENT HISTORY...THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 90 DEGREE DATE FOR
TUCSON IS RIGHT ON TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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