Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220958
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
257 AM MST FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hotter and drier conditions are expected Today and
Saturday with some record high temperatures likely to fall. There
will be just enough moisture around for a few storms near the Mexico
and New Mexico border. Then moisture will increase across much of
the area early next week for an increase in storms and somewhat
cooler afternoon temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were on the increase
after midnight, with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the main
concerns. Recent radar imagery was finally showing a downward trend
in the activity but surface observations continued to report winds
of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to over 40 mph at most locations around
Tucson, Nogales, and Douglas early this morning. Would expect these
winds to diminish in speed by daybreak. Otherwise, still looking at
hot afternoon temperatures the today and Saturday before moderating
some early this coming week. The current forecast looked in good
shape for this week. That said, not making a lot of changes to the
forecast on the morning update.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
Sct-bkn clouds at 7-11k ft agl and bkn-ovc clouds aoa 15k ft agl
thru 22/15z. Aft 22/15z, sct clouds at 8-12k ft agl and sct-bkn
clouds aoa 15k ft agl. Isolated to scattered -tsra/-shra thru
22/13z, and then developing again aft 22/20z, persisting into the
early evening hours tonight. Gusty winds, areas of blowing dust and
heavy rainfall will be the biggest concerns. The showers/storms will
diminish aft 23/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture in place will lead to the daily cycle of
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly along the international border through the
upcoming weekend. A greater chance of storms, along with better
coverage, will occur early to mid next week. Outside of gusty
thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and
mostly less than 15 mph.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

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