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300
FXUS65 KTWC 231012
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
312 AM MST Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Stronger high pressure aloft will bring well above
average daytime temperatures through midweek. Thursday and Friday
will see us between low pressure developing north of the area and
high pressure shifting southward. As a result, expect gusty winds
and several degrees of cooling. Strengthening high pressure next
weekend will once again push temperatures above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Wow, that`s an impressive late season trough
consolidating downstream through the Midwest and Southeast over
the 48 hours. The pattern is kind of stacking up and that will put
the squeeze on Southeast Arizona. With the mean ridge position
upstream over the eastern Pacific dirtying up, we will be caught
between a new ridge orientation thorough central and northern
Mexico to our south, and a system digging out of British Columbia
into northern and central portions of the Intermountain West. That
means gusty winds Thursday and Friday with possible fire weather
and blowing dust concerns.

After our current stretch of heat through Wednesday or Thursday,
we can also expect several degrees of cooling back to near
seasonal normals for late May to end the week.

We will then see a regional ridge take control late in the weekend
into early next week, but it`s a complicated and dirty one with
several weaknesses in the flow. We`ll also have to watch out for
any pre-season weak mid to level moisture fluxes from the south.
Temperatures pushing back to several degrees above average is a
good guess, but we may not be totally dry. A dry high-based
thunderstorm or two is not out of the question east of Tucson next
week. It happens.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 24/12Z.
High pressure will mean mostly clear with occasional patches of
thin cirrus. Normal diurnal wind trends, gusty at times in the
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail into next weekend.
Expect afternoon 20-foot wind gusts through Wednesday to around 20
mph. Stronger winds are forecast to occur Thursday and Friday we
are caught between low pressure north of the area and high
pressure through central and northern Mexico. The combination of
strong and gusty southwest to west winds, low relative humidity
and a high to very high fire danger may create critical fire
conditions Thursday and Friday, especially across higher terrain
east to south of Tucson. With this in mind, a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for portions of fire weather zones 151, 152 and
153 Thursday and Friday. Less wind will then mitigate critical
fire conditions over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for AZZ151>153.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

Meyer

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