Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 181017
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...GREENLEE...AND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF GRAHAM COUNTY. ONGOING AND EXPECTED WASH AND MAIN
STEM FLOODING WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION. CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PIMA AND AREAS OF PINAL COUNTY SAW BETWEEN 1 AND 1.6
INCHES. AS FAR AS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...THE MOUNTAINS SAW THE MOST
WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES...BUT MUCH LOWER VALUES IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

REMNANT OF LOW LEVEL ODILE CIRCULATION NOW PUSHING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY WITH PLENTY OF RAIN STILL ONGOING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BEHIND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. EXTENSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HARDEST
HIT LOCATIONS.

WE WILL RECIRCULATE THIS MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HANGING
ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON POLO CURRENTLY
STILL WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...BUT AT THIS POINT HE DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE GILA...SAN PEDRO AND SANTA CRUZ AND
THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER AS WELL AS FOR THE SAN
PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON. IN ADDITION...THE GILA RIVER IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO APPROACH BANKFULL AT CLIFTON. ALSO...EXPECT
HEAVY FLOW IN STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS SOME ROAD FLOODING IN
MAINLY PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL
RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/10Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503-507>513.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN





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