Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270343
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
842 PM MST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A CHILLY START WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS WERE DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z.
SFC WINDS DIMINISHING TO LGT AND VRBL LESS THAN 10 KTS. AFT
27/17Z...SFC WINDS W/NW 12-22 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS.
OTRW SKC TO SCT CIRRUS LVL CLOUDS AOA 25K FT THRU PD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY IN NW-SE ORIENTED VALLEYS
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SWLY TO
NWLY WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
BELOW 5500 FEET. AT THIS TIME THE AREA WOULD BE EAST OF A FRANKLIN
TO BOWIE TO BISBEE LINE. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR
FREEZING FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...AREA LOOKS TO BE TOO LOCALIZED FOR ANY FREEZE HEADLINES.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN TO
PREVENT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FLAT RIDGING IN THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH AS
WELL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL.

THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY...EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE SCATTERED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE PATCHY
BLOWING DUST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. BY FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...MOST OF THE REMAINING
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
DIVE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA BEFORE FILLING IN AND
GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DRY ELSEWHERE. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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