Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 171555

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
855 AM MST MON OCT 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A rather static weather pattern across the Southwest
will maintain the mostly clear and dry weather conditions into the
new week. A weak frontal boundary sagging into our corner of the
state from New Mexico may bring gusty east to southeast winds
Thursday into Friday.


.DISCUSSION...Scattered areas of thin cirrus was moving across the
area this morning. Highs today will once again be well above normal.
Additional details can be found in the previous discussion section


.AVIATION...Valid through 18/15Z.
SCT cirrus clouds above 20k ft AGL will continue to drift across the
area at times through Tuesday morning with surface winds generally
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warmer than normal conditions will continue
through the upcoming week. Through Wednesday light drainage winds
are expected during the overnight hours with westerly winds of 5 to
15 mph during the afternoons with occasional higher gusts. Gusty
east winds will then develop late Wednesday night and linger into
early Friday in the wake of a backdoor front.


.PREV DISCUSSION...The synoptic pattern is defined by a west to east
oriented ridge that extends from the eastern Pacific waters off the
northern Baja coast and eastward across northern Baja and Sonora and
into southern Texas. Meanwhile, a series of Pacific disturbances
continue to move across the Pacific Northwest, which has resulted in
a dry zonal flow across the Desert Southwest. IR satellite imagery
shows scattered cloud elements, mostly high level cirrus clouds
across parts of Arizona and moving generally east. That said, looks
like mostly sunny again today.

Models keep the aforementioned ridge across the southern tier of the
nation through mid week, as systems move by well to our north during
that time. By late in the week a back door front will result in east
to southeast winds across the region for both Thursday and Friday
and winds may even be slightly elevated during the overnight hours
into early Friday. In addition, as this system slips by to our
northeast and east, ridging will build in behind the system from the
west resulting in warming temperatures late in the week as the ridge
will be just to our west Thursday and overhead Friday.

By the weekend the ridge will continue to move east with a southerly
return flow, but we should maintain a dry forecast through Sunday.
The models do show a significant change early in the following week
(mainly the GFS), but that is beyond the scope of this forecast
package and we have plenty of time to see how the models will handle
this scenario with an approaching trough during that time.

For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 8 to 10 degs above
normal each day, but the warmest days should be Thursday through
Saturday. Low temps will be slightly above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings, then 4 to 6 degs above normal through the
remainder of the forecast period.





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