Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

FXUS65 KTWC 242058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
155 PM MST Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
remain possible into this evening then conditions for thunderstorms
become less favorable for storms Tuesday through Thursday. Another
upswing in activity will develop late in the week into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
were producing locally heavy rain as they move to the north or
northeast around 10 to 15 mph. Been handling some of the heavier
shower areas with small stream flood advisories but can`t rule out a
few flash flooding warnings into the evening hours. Atmosphere
really moist with PW values in the 1.75" to 2" range.

Flow aloft will be more southwesterly over the next several days
which will dry out the atmosphere from the well above normal values
of the past week or so to more traditional values for late July.
Thus will see a reduction in areal coverage of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. With the upper high
positioning itself across northern Arizona Friday into the weekend,
this will turn the flow out of the east and southeast. Thus the area
will return to a more active pattern.

On a side note it will be interesting to watch this week the dance
that two eastern Pacific tropical systems, Irwin and Hilary, will be


.AVIATION...Valid thru 26/00Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA this afternoon/evening, then
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing Tuesday
afternoon, mainly from KTUS eastward. Otherwise, VFR conditions with
cloud decks generally 5k-10k ft AGL. Surface wind variable in
direction mainly less than 12 kts, except in the vicinity of TSRA
where gusts may exceed 45 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours tonight with locally heavy rain
and strong winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are then expected Tuesday through Thursday, mainly east of Tucson.
More widespread thunderstorm activity will occur Friday through the
upcoming weekend. Near normal daytime temperatures are expected
through Friday with below normal readings this weekend. 20-foot
winds will remain below 15 mph, with the exception of strong outflow
winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms.





Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.