Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 161600

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture will provide isolated to scattered
valley rain and mountain snow showers into this evening. Expect
mainly dry conditions with a warming trend Tuesday into Thursday. A
couple of storm systems will then bring more valley rain, mountain
snow and much cooler temperatures Thursday night into the weekend.
Some snow may occur to valley floors east of Tucson by Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...Plenty of cloud cover across most of SE Arizona this
morning with a few light showers here and there. Atypical for this
area are the decks of very low clouds which is a nice break from the
typical severe clear.  For the rest of the day we will have a mix of
sunshine and clouds with a few more showers developing as the sun
"warms" things up a bit.  Convection will be favored over the
mountains and drift around from there with variable steering flow
aloft due to the upper trough being over the area.  A cool and damp
day with no updates planned for the current forecast package at this

Tonight and Tuesday the upper trough will be slowly drifting off to
the east with enough moisture over the area for some lower clouds
and a few showers over the mountains east of Tuscon.  By the time we
get to Wednesday the low should be far enough to the east that the
only threat for showers will be over the White mountains. After a
cool day today temperatures will but back up to or slightly above
seasonal norms Tuesday, Wednesday and if current timing holds even

Later Thursday into the following week looks to be rather active,
cool and wet and/or white depending on your elevation.  Will dig a
bit more into the details for the afternoon package but it looks
like a series of three systems pass across the area later Thursday
through late Saturday with a break and then another one early next
week. We will be nicely adding to the January precipitation tallies
with this series of storms.   Cerniglia


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
A slight chance of valley -SHRA/mountain -SHSN mainly from KTUS east
to the New Mexico border thru 17/03Z. This will result in occasional
MVFR conditions and perhaps brief IFR conditions with the higher
terrain obscured. Surface wind less than 12 kts, generally variable
in direction til 16/16Z and then again after 17/02Z, with a wly/nwly
direction between 16/16Z and 17/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A gradual drying trend will occur early this week,
but lingering moisture will result in a slight chance of valley rain
and mountain snow through this evening. Dry conditions will then
prevail across much of the area Tuesday into Thursday. Several storm
systems will then bring valley rain and mountain snow Thursday night
through next Saturday. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and
generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday, followed by some gusty
southwest to west winds Thursday through Saturday as the storms
approach and move across the region.





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