Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 221652
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
952 AM MST Sat Apr 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with well above normal daytime
temperatures will prevail into the middle of the upcoming week.
Occasional high clouds and gusty afternoon winds at times will occur
as systems move north of the area. Stronger winds will be possible
especially late next week along with a slight chance of showers
across the White Mountains.
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies with nearly calm surface winds prevail
across southeast Arizona at this time. A very dry surface regime was
ongoing, with dewpoints at lower elevations valid 9 AM MST mostly in
the teens. The 22/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 0.27
inch depicted a very dry profile as well. 22/12Z upper air plots
depicted a ridge axis that extended from southern California
northward into Idaho. Meanwhile, a cold front was east of this
forecast area, and was near the Rio Grande river in southern New
Sunny skies will occur today as the upper ridge axis moves eastward
across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will generally
average about 10 degrees or so above normal for April 22. The focus
of attention this evening and especially late tonight into Sunday
morning will be gusty northeast to southeast winds, especially from
the Tucson metro area eastward to the New Mexico border. The 22/12Z
MAV/MET guidance suggests that wind speeds may briefly approach
advisory criteria for the Safford vicinity. Winds should then
diminish late Sunday morning and most likely by early Sunday
afternoon as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.
There are no updates warranted at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections in this product for further detail.
.AVIATION...Valid through 23/18Z.
Clear skies will continue into Sunday morning. Surface wind west of
KTUS will be terrain driven generally less than 12 kts. Surface wind
KTUS vicinity eastward to the New Mexico border: wly/nwly 5-15 kts
with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and this evening, then nely to
sely 10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts after 23/06Z and continuing
into Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and above average daytime
temperatures will continue into next week. Minimum daytime
humidities will be in the single digits and teens. 20-foot winds
this afternoon will generally be west to northwest less than 15 mph.
Expect gusty northeast to southeast winds from the Tucson metro area
eastward to the New Mexico border tonight into Sunday morning.
Thereafter, 20-foot winds will mainly be terrain driven with
sustained speeds less than 15 mph, although gusts of 20-25 mph will
occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. These speeds may
create critical fire weather conditions at times during the upcoming
week mainly near the NM border and across the Gila River Valley.
.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...The upper ridge axis, which extended
from central Nevada to off the northern Baja coast this morning,
will move across the state today resulting in slightly warmer
daytime temperatures. These well above normal high temperatures will
continue Sunday into Monday then a cooling trend thru the end of
next week. Most of next week will see gusty afternoon winds which
will bring some fire weather concerns Mon thru Wed. A deeper trof
passing across northern Arizona on Thursday may bring a slight
chance of showers to mainly the White Mountains. High temperatures
by the end of next week could be below normal.
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