Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 051632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO HAPPEN
FRIDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WERE NEARLY CALM FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THE WRN DESERTS. HOWEVER...
WINDS WERE ELY/SELY AT 10-15 MPH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS
VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 20S-MID 30S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE
NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 05/12Z KTWC SOUNDING
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.25 INCH...DOWN NEARLY ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE PROFILE EXHIBITED WARMING OF 2-5
DEGS C THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE
SOUNDING DEPICTED LIGHT ELY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
400 MB...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY FLOW ABOVE 400 MB. 05/12Z UPPER
AIR PLOTS DEPICTED TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SWWD INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...THEN CONTINUED
WWD TO WEST OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A RIDGE AXIS WAS ALSO OFF THE
WEST COAST ADJACENT 130W.

A FEW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY. OTHERWISE...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY 2-5 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS WED. GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY TO
ERN SECTIONS...THEN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ
FRI IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE AREA.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS AT
4-8K FT AGL NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND THRU TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE ELY/SELY AT 8-15 KTS. STRONGER SURFACE WIND WILL
THEN OCCUR FRIDAY...WITH ELY/SELY WIND AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND FRIDAY SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS. THESE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 145 AM MST/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A CLOSED LOW GETTING PINCHED OFF
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LOW OVER BAJA WILL LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THAT TIME.

FOR SUNDAY...A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND EASTERN ARIZONA...BUT ANY LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALLOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOSTLY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2
TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 8 TO 10 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH THE
WARMEST MORNINGS OCCURRING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE




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