Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
204 PM MST SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
NEXT WEEK FOR AN UPSWING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATED A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DID SHOW A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER SONORA MEXICO SOUTH OF DOUGLAS
ARIZONA...BUT HAS NOT PLAYED MUCH OF A FACTOR YET IN TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
DRIER AIR IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL UPSWING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
MULTI LAYERED CLOUD DECK EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AS LOW AS ABOUT 6K FT AGL. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR KDUG AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL
EXPAND A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA.  OUTSIDE
OF STORM INFLUENCE...SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS
WITH SOME GUSTINESS FROM FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST RH VALUES. A
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG OUTFLOWS NEAR
STORMS...OTHERWISE 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS FROM THE WEST DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING AND IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND THE SAFFORD
AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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