Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280941
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR
TUCSON...SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING WHILE A SHORT
WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THRU UTAH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WAS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING AND ITS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL BRING
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON
WEST.

MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AS MOISTURE SPREADS W ACROSS NM. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR NM BORDER.

NEXT WEEKS MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA.
STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME. WAIT AND SEE
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z. SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 28/19Z...THEN WLY/NWLY
SURFACE WIND AT 8-14 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS TIL
29/03Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AGAIN AFT 29/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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