Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 201533
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
833 AM MST SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER TODAY WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FROM TUCSON WESTWARD BY MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS A SYSTEM BRUSHES BY NORTH OF THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
THAT RESULTED IN AN ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY HAS NOW PUSHED OFF INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH A TROUGH AXIS LINGERING SOUTH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TODAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE IN
THE 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH RANGE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE...PINALENO AND
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH JUST SOME FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS. BY LATER TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BREEZES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LOWER TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE APRIL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...FLAT RIDGING
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES IN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE WIND
EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 21/12Z. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO A FEW EASTERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. CONTINUED DRYING
INTO MONDAY AND MUCH WARMER.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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