Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.