Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 PM MST Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect strong and gusty winds today as a weather system
moves north of the area. This system may also bring a few showers
and thunderstorms to the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry conditions
will prevail through Thursday. Strong and gusty winds will return
Friday into Saturday along with a chance of showers east of Tucson.
Cooler Saturday, followed by dry conditions with a warming trend
next week.


.DISCUSSION...The winds will continue to be the biggest forecast
concern through the weekend as a series of systems dig into the
region from the northwest. Strong winds today with Wind Advisory,
Red Flag Warning and Blowing Dust Advisory all in effect this
afternoon. Wind gusts have pushed near 50 mph in portions of the
wind advisory area, especially east of Tucson. Extremely dangerous
fire behavior is causing issues at the Sawmill fire south of
Tucson (northeast of Madera Canyon), with rapid growth over the
past 18 hours. A Portion of I-10 in Cochise County has been closed
due to blowing dust. Winds will diminish this evening as the
system lifts northeastward into the Great Plains, but still breezy
in some eastern locations overnight.

With the strong ridge anchored off the Pacific coast, we`ll keep a
breezy northwesterly flow Wednesday, but the gradient won`t
sharpen to windy levels again until the next system pushes this
way Friday. A slightly more amplified flow should allow the
Friday/Saturday system to dig a little deeper into eastern Arizona
before kicking northeast Sunday. As such, a few showers possible
Saturday, but the main story will still be the wind. Another round
of wind advisories possible (especially east of Tucson) with fire
concerns discussed in the fire weather section below.

Temperatures will actually drop well below climo Saturday and
Saturday night, with overnight lows ranging from 30s in eastern
and southern areas to 40s from Tucson westward. A freeze is not
out of the question Sunday morning for colder valley locations of
Cochise county.

High pressure takes over next week with dry conditions and
temperatures back well above average by Monday or Tuesday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
VFR conditions with SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15k ft AGL. Isol`d -TSRA/-
SHRA across the White Mountains NE of KSAD through this evening. SFC
wind WLY/NWLY 15-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts, particularly at
KDUG/KFHU/KALK/KSAD terminals. SFC wind becoming terrain driven at
less than 10 kts late this evening into Wednesday morning. NWLY SFC
wind 10-14 kts with gusts to 22 kts will occur Wednesday afternoon.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8
PM MST this evening for the southeastern half of fire weather zone
152 and the northern portions of fire weather zones 150 and 151. The
combination of strong and gusty winds, low relative humidity and a
high fire danger will create critical fire weather conditions. Gusty
winds and low relative humidity each afternoon into the weekend may
create areas of red flag conditions across southeast Arizona,
particularly on Thursday and Friday.

Otherwise, dry conditions will occur into Friday morning except for
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White
Mountains this evening. There is a chance of showers across the
White Mountains Friday, then a chance of showers east of Tucson
Friday night into Saturday. Dry conditions are expected Sunday into
early next week.


Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ503>515.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ508.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150-151.




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