Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 251730
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CUMULOFORM CLOUDS SPREADING
SEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS OR
SO WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND
26/03Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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