Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 222138
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST SUN MAY 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with below average daytime temperatures
and gusty afternoon winds will prevail most of the week. Expect
windy conditions across much of the area Wednesday as a low pressure
system approaches from the west.
.DISCUSSION...An enhanced and dry southwesterly flow in between
major features made sure we remained dry and stable today with below
average temperatures for Southeast Arizona. Breezy to locally windy
across the area this afternoon, but below any wind advisory or
widespread critical fire weather concerns. A little dust showing
upon I-10 cameras from time-to-time, but visibilities have remained
A large scale mean trough position extending from around the Pacific
Northwest through central and northern portions of the Great Basin
will serve to keep our temperatures a few degrees below average for
late may, while also helping to keep things breezy around the area
most of the week. An impulse from British Columbia will deepen the
trough down the coast and immediately upstream of Arizona Tuesday
and Wednesday. This will create stronger winds on Wednesday;
probably strong enough for fire weather and blowing dust concerns
A weak flow at the base of the filling residual trough will continue
to keep temperatures from jumping too much. However, modest height
and lower layer thickness increases will push temperatures back up a
few degrees to near typical late May averages next weekend.
.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/23Z.
Clear skies to scattered cirrus clouds above 25k ft agl will prevail
thru 23/12z, especially south-to-southeast of KTUS, with clear skies
expected all day Monday. Swly surface wind at 12-20 kts with gusts
to around 25 kts thru 23/03z. Surface wind generally less than 10
kts between 23/03z and 23/15z. Increasing surface wind aft 23/15z,
with sly/swly surface wind at 14-22 kts and gusts to near 30 kts aft
23/19z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through next Saturday.
Daytime minimum relative humidity will generally range from the
upper single digits to mid teens with fair overnight recoveries.
Expect gusty south to southwest winds during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The best chance for widespread critical fire weather
conditions to occur is Wednesday afternoon for locales from Tucson
southward and southeastward to the International and New Mexico
borders. Critical fire weather conditions may again occur Thursday
afternoon across about the eastern half of Cochise county. Field
crews are encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts for the
potential issuance of Fire Weather Watches and/or Red Flag Warnings
during the next few days.
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