Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 151609

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
909 AM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into next week. Expect
another couple of rounds of near record high temperatures
today and Thursday, then relatively cooler temperatures by
Saturday into next week as a system passes north of the area.


Zonal flow/dirty ridge remains in place across the region this
morning with varying amounts of cloud cover noted on satellite.
Clouds didn`t negatively impact cooling overnight as most locales
started the morning in the low 50s in/around Tucson and in the 30s
and 40s to the east, but temps have already rebounded into the
upper 50s to mid 60s as of 16Z.

Really not much going on weather-wise for the rest of today/tonight
as we`ll once again be looking at temps about 15 degrees above
normal. Not forecasting record-tying temps (89 degrees) in Tucson
but it`ll be close with highs topping out in the upper 80s. Only
made minor adjustments to forecast grids based on observational


.AVIATION...Valid thru 16/18Z.
Scattered to broken clouds above 20k ft AGL and surface wind
variable in direction mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions into next week. Some gusty west to
northwest winds should prevail Friday afternoon east of Tucson as a
system passes north of the area. Occasionally gusty east winds may
also occur this weekend, especially east of Tucson. Otherwise, 20-
foot winds will generally be terrain driven less than 10 mph.


We`ll continue to contend with the strong ridge anchored over
northwest Mexico and near record high temperatures for another day
or two. Or three. A system currently off the coast of British
Columbia will pass north of our area and help knock temperatures
down to only around 5 degrees above average over the weekend. No
rain this far south though. Maybe breezy at times.

Weak ridging in between systems will add a few degrees to the
temperatures again early next week before another system subtracts a
few by mid week or so.

In essence, we are exchanging a regime where temperatures have been
running 10 to 15 degrees above average, for one in which the
afternoon highs will be around 5 to 8 degrees above average. We
remain relatively dry, so a large diurnal trend will continue to
allow almost seasonably cool overnight lows over the weekend into
early next week.






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