Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 311010
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS POPPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN COCHISE/SW SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. OTHERWISE DEBRIS CLOUDS
EXIST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER W TEXAS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF CA COAST. THIS PLACED ARIZONA UNDER S-
SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTER A DOWN THURSDAY...TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
ACTIVE ONE WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
TUCSON WEST SEEING THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER DESERT STORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DISTURBANCE CAUGHT IN THE S-SE FLOW ALOFT. WITH PW VALUES IN THE
1.2" TO 1.6" RANGE...HIGHEST WEST...WET MICROBURSTS ARE A CONCERN.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
CUT INTO VALLEY CAPE. RAISED POPS WEST OF TUCSON LATER TODAY AND
ALSO...PER COORD WITH WFO PHX...THRU IN BLOWING DUST WORDING FROM
TUCSON W-NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH
THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH LOWER POPS AS SOME
DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN OUT OF
THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY S OF KTUS THRU 31/15Z. OTRW DECREASING CLOUDS
THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF
BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z, OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES
SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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