Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 242206
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HOT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW 110S OUT IN
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WITH TUCSON CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD OF 109 SET
BACK IN 1987. DOWNSLOPING DEFINITELY HELPED IN THE WARMING TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM 0.85"
NEAR AZ/NM BORDER TO 1.30" OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY. WHERE THE HIGHER
PW VALUES AREA IS WHERE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FIRED THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PIMA COUNTY AND WRN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. AS HOT AS IT GOT OUT IN WRN PIMA COUNTY...COULD
SEE ISOLD SVR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTING ITEM MOVING UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. A VERY
STRONG OUTFLOW...ORIGINATING FROM AN MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE MOUTH
OF THE GLFCA...IS MOVING NORTH. SEVERAL COAST SITES IN SRN HALF OF
GULF HAVE SEEN GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH EARLIER TODAY. THE 2 PM OB FROM
HERMOSILLO HAD SUSTAINED 20 KTS AND 4 MILES BLOWING DUST. THIS DUST
WAS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE 2 PM VISIBLE IMAGERY. WIND SPEEDS FROM
ASCAT SATELLITE SHOWED WINDS SPEEDS OF 30 KTS SOUTH OF GUYMAS. SO A
GULF SURGE IN MOVING NORTH AND WILL PUSH HIGHER PW VALUES INTO THE
STATE ON FRIDAY.

WITH HIGHER PW VALUES PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE AN BIG INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY BEING A BIG DAY THANKS TO
APPROACHING INVERTED TROF GIVING THE ATMOSPHERE THE NEEDED LIFT.
DUE TO THE RECENT DRY STREAK...I HAVE ADDED BLOWING DUST TO THE
FORECAST NEXT TWO DAYS FOR THOSE AREAS PRONE TO IT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW WORKED OVER THE AREA
WILL BE AFTER SATURDAY EVENT. MAY ALSO BE MORE IN THE EVENING THAN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF SHOWING LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
UPPER HIGH OVER THE AREA...WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST. IF ECMWF IS
RIGHT...IT COULD GET QUITE HOT AGAIN...LIKE TODAY. FOR NOW WILL HOLD
ON TO NEAR CLIMO POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE BREEZY SFC WINDS THRU AT LEAST 03Z. AFTERWARD THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT. TOMORROW WINDS LOOK TO FOLLOW MORE OF A STANDARD
DIURNAL TREND. A WEAK CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART AS
FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER W OF KOLS...WHERE SOME MID AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EXIST. AS OF 20Z...SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER SETUP AS AN OUTFLOW FROM A
SYSTEM NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA IS SURGING MOISTURE UP TO THE REGION.
THE RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL LESSEN IT`S INFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAFS. NEVERTHELESS...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST FAVORABLE W OF KDUG-KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WEST OF NOGALES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DON`T FORESEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE WX
IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
STABLE SO ONLY EXPECT TO SEE A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH NO VERTICAL
EXTENT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THERE IS AN OUTFLOW MOVING UP THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL GIVE THE AREA SURGE OF MOISTURE STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW...THOUGH THE BEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH SLIDING THRU WHICH WILL GIVE A LITTLE
EXTRA BUMP. THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS IS IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE ANOTHER
HOT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES BACK OVERHEAD. THOUGH
TIME WILL TELL. THE MAIN WIND CONCERNS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE DUE
TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. OTHERWISE...THINGS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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