Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 030420
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY AT 03/04Z INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SERN
AZ. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAKENING HURRICANE
ANDRES AND STRENGTHENING HURRICANE BLANCA CONTINUE TO SPIN WELL TO
THE W AND S OF THE BAJA...RESPECTIVELY. NO INDICATION VIA WV IMAGERY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTH TOWARD THIS AREA JUST
YET...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS A
DEEPENING TROF APPROACHES THE WRN CONUS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MODERATING A DEGREE OR TWO AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF THESE
THINGS WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z. SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 03/16Z. WLY/SWLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...INCLUDING THE
KDUG...KALK...AND KOLS TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS OF 13-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
LESS WIND IS EXPECTED NEAR KTUS AND KSAD. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS...WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.

LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO BE AFFECTED THE MOST. HOWEVER...
THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING...
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY...ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF OF ALASKA TODAY WILL DEEPEN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED FROM A
WEAKENING HRCN ANDRES AND SPREAD TOWARD NRN BAJA BY LATE THE DAY.
OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY.

THURSDAY...WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NR FRISCO. THIS WILL INCREASE SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE STATE WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ANDRES MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. WITH MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE LOW LEVELS
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE HIGH BASED.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR ON PLACING UPPER
LOW OVER THE LA BASIN WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT INCREASING OVER THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW BEST DYNAMICS BEING WEST OF
TUCSON CLOSER TO THE LOW.

BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WE HAVE THE RIGHT SET-UP...UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR EAST AND UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST...TO HAVE MOISTURE
PULLED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM TS/HRCN BLANCA. CAN`T HANG MY HAT ON ANY
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN YET WITH THE GFS STILL THE WETTEST MODEL
VERSUS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE MODELS TO
COME MORE IN LINE AND THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE TWEAKED ACCORDINGLY.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...JG



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