Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 310435
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL  START ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT HOTTER DAYTIME A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS A BIT MORE THAN TUESDAY. HAD
ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF DOUGLAS. THIS STORM ALSO HAD VERY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...ALSO NORTH OF DOUGLAS.

AS OF 930 PM...THE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS NEAR
KITT PEAK HAD WEAKENED. A FEW STORMS WERE STILL OCCURRING IN FAR NRN
GREENLEE COUNTY...SRN APACHE COUNTY AND SW NM.

FURTHER SOUTH...A DISTURBANCE ROUNDED THE BASE OF LARGE INVERTED
TROF THAT IS OVER SRN BAJA. THIS FEATURE HELP WITH LARGE MCS OVER
SRN SONORA/NRN DURANGO MEXICO. NO SIGN OF A STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM
COASTAL OBS HEADED INTO THE GULF.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL HOLD ON TO VERY LOW END POPS FROM TUCSON SOUTH
AND EAST AS LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATING THAT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE...BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WIND...WAS OVER CENTRAL DURANGO MEXICO
MOVING NORTH. NOT QUITE SURE THAT THE MODEL HAVE CAPTURED THIS
FEATURE AND COULD BE A WILD CARD IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SONORA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOWS BRINGING A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. BEFORE THEN STILL WORKING ON
RECYCLED MOISTURE BUT SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/21Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW QUICK POP UP -SHRA/TS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA DVLPG AFT 31/18Z...MAINLY S
AND E OF KTUS. SFC WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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