Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 292205
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF TUCSON IN THE VICINITY OF KITT PEAK AT THIS
TIME. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA EXCEPT ERN COCHISE COUNTY AND WRN PIMA
COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS GENERALLY WEST AROUND
15-20 KTS. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND EVENTUALLY WRN
PIMA COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. EXPECT THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO END AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUE-FRI. AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A
CONTINUED ELY FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. 29/12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAINED
SIMILAR VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH MOVING THE UPPER HIGH CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SAT...THEN EWD INTO NERN NEW MEXICO BY
NEXT MON. THIS POSITION MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPER SELY FLOW REGIME. HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS DEPICTED A
WEAK UPPER LOW TO MOVE NWWD FROM SONORA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY SUN-MON. IF THIS FEATURE IS REALITY...SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREASED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS. WILL
DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT SOLUTIONS FOR CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING
SIGNIFICANT UPWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL INTO
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF KTUS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
TSRA. EXPECT -TSRA/-SHRA TO MOSTLY END BY 30/06Z...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. THE FAVORED AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST OF TUCSON. MEANWHILE...
THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF COCHISE COUNTY. THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



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