Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
906 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through next week.
Slightly cooler temperatures will occur for the remainder of the
weekend and early next week, with freezing temperatures possible
Sunday and Monday mornings for eastern valley locations. Daytime
temperatures rebound quickly to near record or record levels by


.DISCUSSION...IR Satellite imagery shows a few cirrus clouds moving
into southern Arizona from the west. Expect few to scattered cirrus
for the remainder of the night with skies gradually clearing by
tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient
will cause gusty east winds from Tucson eastward into Sunday
morning. Latest model guidance does not show any changes from the
12Z models, so no updates to the forecast necessary. Please see
previous discussion for more details.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 20/06Z.
Few to scattered clouds above 20k ft AGL into Sunday afternoon then
gradual clearing. Surface winds variable at less than 8 kts until
19/12Z then becoming easterly at 5-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts
until about 19/19Z from KTUS eastward. After 19/19Z winds will
gradually diminish becoming easterly at 8-12 kts for the remainder
of the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions into next weekend. Expect gusty east
winds at times Sunday and again Wednesday into Thursday. 20-foot
winds will be terrain driven mainly less than 15 mph at other times.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across the region early this
afternoon. We may see the return of some patchy cirrus late tonight
into Sunday morning along with slightly elevated east winds through
the Gila River Valley. As long as the wind doesn`t mix the boundary
layer too much, we`ll see the first widespread freezing temps
through the Sulphur Springs Valley early Sunday morning. As such, a
Freeze Warning remains in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM MST Sunday

High temperatures this weekend through Monday should top out in the
upper 70s for the Tucson area, which is still 7 degrees above
average for this time of year. The "cooldown" will be short-lived
though, as a strong ridge of high pressure begins to move into the
area on Tuesday. The pattern then stagnates a bit as the ridge axis
inches slowly eastward. This will translate into record or near
record highs once again returning to the area for Thanksgiving and
continuing through the holiday weekend. No rain expected for the
next 7 days and beyond.


Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM MST Sunday for AZZ507>509.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM MST Monday for AZZ507>509.




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