Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 202135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into early next week.
Daytime temperatures will gradually increase to near record or
record levels by Thanksgiving and into the upcoming weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly cloudy conditions continue this
afternoon with cirrus streaming across the state under northwest
flow. Surface temperatures this afternoon are running just about
even with temperatures 24 hours ago. Depending on some breaks in the
clouds, there`s still enough time for an additional degree or two of

High pressure will begin to build in over the region tomorrow with
heights and thicknesses increasing. The ridge will continue to
amplify through Thanksgiving and beyond, with record or near-record
warmth occuring starting Wednesday and continuing through the four
day holiday weekend. For Tucson, both the daily (Nov 23) and
Thanksgiving record high temperatures will be in jeopardy. As a
reminder, the average high temperature this time of year is around
72 degrees, and the average high temperature at KTUS through 11/19
has been 84 degrees. With high pressure firmly in control for the
next 7 days, the chance for precip remains nil.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 22/00Z.
SCT to BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL through much of the period. SFC
wind WLY/NWLY this afternoon at less than 10 kts, becoming variable
overnight into Tuesday morning. Much of the same through the day
Tuesday with NWLY wind mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions over the next 7 days. Well above
normal temperatures return to the region Thanksgiving through the
upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds may be gusty from the east Wednesday
into Thursday. Winds will be terrain driven at mainly less than 15
mph at other times.


.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.






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