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000
FXUS65 KTWC 160318
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
818 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVE IN
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. THERE IS A
SECOND STREAM SOUTH OF THE BORDER THOUGH DON`T FORESEE MUCH MAKING
IT INTO FORECAST AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND USHER IN BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS LINE. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AT 1 PM FOR THE AREAS EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED
ABOVE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. FOR
FURTHER FORECAST DETAILS SEE SECTIONS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY SURFACE
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME WLY/NWLY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AFTER 16/19Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS
NEAR KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL IN NATURE EXCEPT FOR GRADUALLY
INCREASING WEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEATHER
SYSTEM BRUSHING BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN
AREAS. WITH THE VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES CONTINUING (WELL BELOW 10
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS) THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE AREA
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO JUST EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 152 BORDERING NEW
MEXICO (INCLUDING EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES). ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEXT EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE AS STRONG OR PERSISTENT.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE...SO A BIG CONCERN
WOULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ ISSUED AT 232 PM MST/...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS GUSTINESS IN COMBINATION
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT OF MORE DETAILS.

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SYSTEM INTO
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A DROP IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
    FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AZZ152. (INCLUDING EASTERN COCHISE...
    SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)
&&

$$

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