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000
FXUS65 KTWC 201014
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 AM MST Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring strong and gusty
winds to the area Thursday into the weekend. A few showers or
thunderstorms may accompany the system, but overall dry conditions
can be anticipated. The system will also usher in cooler
temperatures Friday, with readings remaining below average through
at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions with daytime temperatures running a few
degrees above normal can be expected today and Thursday. Thereafter,
models continued to deepen a low pressure system over the western
United States Thursday into the weekend. Moisture needed to support
rainfall appeared to be very limited compared to previous solutions
the past few days. Thus, confidence remained low for rain chances
south and east of Tucson Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, the system
will bring strong and gusty winds especially Thursday and Friday.
Cooler temperatures will also follow on Friday and remain below
normal over the weekend into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 21/12Z.
SKC this morning. FEW-SCT clouds above 8k ft AGL this afternoon. SFC
wind mainly less than 10 kts most of this morning then becoming SWLY
late this morning to 12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts continuing
through the afternoon hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A deepening upper trough over the western United
States will result in gusty southwest winds, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours through Saturday. The strongest winds
are expected on Thursday and Friday, with a cooling trend Friday
through Sunday. A few storms will be possible near eastern and
southeastern mountains before drying out this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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