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000
FXUS65 KTWC 091625
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
COOLER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THEN GENERALLY DRY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST NIGHT NOW SOUTH OF THE
BORDER IN CENTRAL SONORA TO WESTERN CHIHUAHUA. GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW
WILL RELAX LATER TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SAG INTO
SOUTHERN SONORA BEFORE KICKING ACROSS MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COOLER AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO THE
COOLEST LEVELS OF THE PAST 2-3 WEEKS OR SO IN EASTERN AREAS. THIS
MEANS AROUND 28-31 IN COLDEST COCHISE COUNTY VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS
AND FLATTEN MON...THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON TUE AFTERNOON. 09/00Z
GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER NRN AZ WED. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THUR...THEN WEAKEN AND EJECT WELL EAST OF THE AREA
FRI.

THE ECMWF DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...
THE GFS PRODUCES VERY LIGHT QPF/S ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THUR
AFTERNOON. FOR CONTINUITY...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THUR. THEREAFTER...A BAGGY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE AZ FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FRI-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT.
WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR MON FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
TUE-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/15Z.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FT AGL ACROSS FAR SE AZ AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKC TODAY THEN A FEW-SCT
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WIND INTO THIS AFTERNOON ELY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.
SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10
KTS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME
BREEZINESS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TUESDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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