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000
FXUS65 KTWC 030351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR NEXT
WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED
ARIZONA YESTERDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

CLOSER TO HOME...A DRY ZONAL FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES WITH A BATCH OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN IR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF
ARIZONA...NOT TO MENTION THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
MEXICO.

THE INHERITED `PARTLY CLOUDY` SKIES FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK
REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES TO SKY CONDITION ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 30S. THESE CURRENT READINGS ARE RIGHT
ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE TEMPS EITHER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
EXPECT SCT CLOUDS AT 8-10K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN SCT-BKN
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AS ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF SE AZ. TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TUE EVENING. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS
SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS MON AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WED. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OVER SE AZ THUR. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR WED AND
WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THUR AND THUR NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY JUST EAST OF THE
AREA FRI-SAT. PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE FAVORED THE
MORE-PROGRESSIVE AND THUS DRIER GFS SOLUTION VERSUS THE ECMWF. THE
GFS/ECMWF WERE THEN SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRY NLY FLOW REGIME
NEXT SUN AS A UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE NEARLY 6-10 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TUE-THUR...
WITH HIGH TEMPS THUR FORECAST TO AVERAGE ABOUT 6-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING IS THEN ON TAP FRI-
SAT FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS NEXT SUN.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS