Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280350
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.  OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY  COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS STILL BLOWING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS I-19 CORRIDOR AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
TUCSON TO PHOENIX. MOST OF THE DENSE BLOWING DUST WAS FROM I-8
NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH VSBY WAS REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO IN SW PINAL COUNTY
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY HELPING TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SW PINAL AND W PIMA COUNTY THIS EVENING.

A LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SONORA IS PUSHING NW. OUTFLOWS
FROM THESE STORMS COULD INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES
PRESENT IN SE AZ TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA
BUT MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

AT THE VERY LEAST...THIS SONORAN COMPLEX SHOULD REINFORCE MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WESTWARD...SO EXPECT
ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY IN SE AZ. SEE
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW FOR EXPECTED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM KCGZ-KAVQ-KOLS OVERNIGHT BUT ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45
KTS AND AREAS OF BLDU SUNDAY 28/21Z-29/04Z. SFC WINDS GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS FROM THE EAST FROM KCGZ-KTUS-KOLS WILL DIMINISH BY
28/07Z...OTHERWISE SFC WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
IN A GENERALLY EAST TO WEST FLOW REGIME FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN WINDS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WRN CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO GENERALLY BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/UTAH REGION.
AMPLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A FAVORABLE ELY FLOW REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN THE DAILY CYCLE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BASED ON THE 27/12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC...AM UNABLE AT THIS TIME TO DISCERN AN ESPECIALLY
FAVORED DAY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...DAYTIME TEMPS THRU AT LEAST MID-WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD THEN
TREND PERHAPS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...DROZD


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