Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 221620
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND INTO
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 22/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER PORTIONS OF NEVADA...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 67 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 54 DEGS...WHICH
WAS 8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT TEMPS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...SO NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY ARE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
POSTED BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 20K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 22/13Z. INCREASING SWLY SURFACE
WIND AFT 22/13Z...WITH SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO
25-35 KTS BTWN 22/17Z AND 23/03Z. WIND DIMINISHING AFT 27/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR EASTERN
COCHISE COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN
COCHISE COUNTY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM THIS EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...ARE POSSIBLE FOR
NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152 AND ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.

OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE STATE. S-SW WINDS OF 15-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ACROSS PARTS OF COCHISE
COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION ABOVE. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THRU THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY
      TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHERN FIRE ZONE 152 OR EASTERN
      COCHISE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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