Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 162059
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through next week. Expect
near record temperatures for some locations into Friday, then
relatively cooler temperatures this weekend and early next week.
However, daytime temperatures will still be several degrees above
average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The large scale pattern is characterized by an upper
level low moving into the Pacific Northwest, strong high pressure
aloft centered along the west central Mexican coast and southwest
flow aloft between these two features moving across California. A
mix of mid and considerable high level cloudiness is noted within
this southwest flow over the southern half of California and the
northern half of Arizona.

As the upper low moves inland across the northern tier of states on
Friday, the flow pattern becomes zonal across the southern half of
the western United States. This will result in a couple of degrees
of cooling across our forecast area, although temperatures will
still top out around 10 degrees above seasonal normals. There will
also be increasing clouds across the area on Friday, as the mid/high
level moisture band currently moving through California gets pushed
southward across the desert southwest. Wind speeds will also
increase some on Friday afternoon, mainly across eastern areas and
especially in the upper Gila River valley.

A zonal to northwest flow pattern will then continue across the
desert southwest through early next week, with moderating
height/thickness values and afternoon temperatures generally in the
70s areawide on Saturday and then in the lower to mid 70s east of
Tucson Sunday through Tuesday and in the upper 70s to lower 80s from
Tucson westward. These temperatures, while cooler, are still 3-6
degrees above normal.

By the middle of next week, strong high pressure aloft becomes
centered over the northern Baja peninsula with sunny, warm and
continued dry conditions across our forecast area. Daytime
temperatures will once again warm into the mid to upper 80s in the
Tucson metro area in the Wednesday through Friday time frame of next
week. Readings will be at or near record levels late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/23Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL becoming SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL
early Friday. Normal diurnal wind trends generally less than 10 kts
thru 17/19Z. Aft 17/19Z, SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 8-14 kts, except in
the upper Gila River Valley near KSAD where SFC wind will be NWLY at
15-20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions into the middle of next week. Some
gusty west to northwest winds will prevail Friday afternoon east of
Tucson as a system passes north of the area. Occasionally gusty east
winds may also occur this weekend, especially east of Tucson.
Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven less than
10 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Zell

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