Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290848
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 AM MST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A weak and slow moving upper level low will maintain
temperatures slightly below average to start the new week. As it
passes overhead late Tuesday into early Wednesday it will bring
about a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the White
mountains. Strong high pressure will then build over the region the
latter part of the week and into the weekend, resulting in hotter
temperatures with highs of 100+ from Tucson across the lower
deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and 29/00Z upper-air plots show
ridging to our east over the southern plains...while to our west is
an upper low spinning just offshore of the southern California
coast. IR satellite imagery shows clear skies across much of
Arizona, with the closest cloudiness to our south and east over
parts of northern Mexico and southwest New Mexico.

Models are in pretty good agreement that this low will move slowly
across Arizona through early Wednesday. As a result, expect high
temperatures to be several degrees below normal, but still warm with
readings topping out into the lower 90s for Tucson. Moisture
associated with this low will be pulled northward as south to
southwest winds aloft develop ahead of the low, but this moisture is
depicted in the models to remain mostly to our east over parts of
New Mexico, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday. So, expect dry
conditions area-wide today and Monday, then a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms for mainly the White mountains of northern
Greenlee county for Tuesday through Wednesday. Kept a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Thursday and Friday
over the White mountains as moisture lingers on the back side of the
exiting low.

Ridging will build in behind this system late in the week and into
the weekend, resulting in hot temperatures for the latter part of
the week and the weekend. A low pressure system will also be over
coastal sections of southern California beginning Saturday, which
could spill some moisture our direction, so included a slight chance
of showers/thunderstorms mainly for the White mountains again for
Saturday.

For Tucson, high temperatures will generally be 3 to 5 degs below
normal today through Tuesday, then near normal for Wednesday.
Thereafter, expect highs to range from 3 to 6 degs above normal each
day, although the warmest day will likely occur Saturday. Low
temperatures around 2 to 3 degs below normal Monday and Tuesday
mornings, then near normal Wednesday. Thereafter, lows warming to 6
to 8 degs above normal by late in the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
Expect mainly clear skies through tonight. Expect normal diurnal
winds less than 10 kts early this morning before SW winds increase
by 29/19z to 10-18 kts with gusts around 25 kts this afternoon. Wind
easing again aft 30/02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry conditions with moderately breezy
southwest winds this afternoon and Monday afternoon.  Haines 6
conditions are also expected east of Willcox this afternoon and
Monday afternoon.

Slightly more mid level moisture is forecast during the middle of
work week with isolated thunderstorms possible over the mountains
well NE of Tucson. While sustained winds will generally be lighter
midweek, erratic gusts will be possible near buildups and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup is expected toward the end of
the work week and into the weekend with wide 100+ forecast
temperatures across the lower elevations.  Cerniglia

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mollere
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

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