Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
833 PM MST Mon Oct 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures will continue this
week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson will
gradually diminish through the overnight hours. Dry conditions will
then prevail Tuesday into this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...The development of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon into early this evening certainly over-performed compared
to the recent numerical model output which showed little activity.
Certainly the increased dynamics ahead of a shortwave trough now
across Southern California helped with the convective development.
The big winner was the Tucson metro and most specifically from near
the Tucson Mountains out west towards Three Points where a few spots
had in excess of 0.50", though KTUS has only received a trace. The
latest KEMX radar imagery shows isolated to scattered showers
primarily over Graham, Cochise and Greenlee Counties. With the best
dynamics shifting east, we do expect the bulk of the showers to
remain across eastern sections of the forecast area through the
overnight. Will maintain slight chance PoPs, especially from Tucson
eastward as the trough axis still remains to our west.

Ridging aloft will quickly build in on Tuesday with dry conditions
expected area-wide. Perhaps Tuesday will break the streak of 90
degree days in Tucson that now stands at 18? It will
be a close call. Updates were sent earlier to account for short term
trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged.


.AVIATION...Valid through 27/06Z.
Expect ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA mainly east of KTUS through about
25/12Z, followed by dry conditions the rest Tuesday. Otherwise, SCT-
BKN clouds around 8k-12k ft AGL with OVC layers above 20k ft AGL into
Tuesday morning, then decreasing clouds Tuesday afternoon. Surface
wind variable in direction less than 12 kts thru the valid period.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm tonight, mainly east of Tucson. Dry conditions will then
occur Tuesday into early next week. 20-foot winds will be terrain
driven generally less than 15 mph.


.CLIMATE...Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
through the end of the month. The forecast high of 97 degrees at the
Tucson airport for Thursday, October 27 would be the latest 95 on
record by one day (the record is October 26, 2001). The rest of this
month will continue to see us challenge for the warmest October on






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