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000
FXUS65 KTWC 192141
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF ROCKY POINT MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY...A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING APRIL DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH STORMS
PRODUCING PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. HAD A
REPORT NEAR DOUGLAS OF 1" HAIL WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS BEING BETWEEN 0.25"-0.50". NO WIND REPORTS YET BUT
BELIEVE THAT GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. NOT SURPRISED
BY THE LOCALIZED MOD-HVY RAINERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 0.65"-0.80" RANGE WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR APRIL. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS PRODUCING TODAYS WEATHER WILL PULL
OUT OF THE LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR AZ/NM BORDER
AROUND SUNRISE.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON EASTER SUNDAY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL BE 4-9 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WARMER YET ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS 4-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS UPPER
TROF MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH IS ADDRESSED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. HIGHS TUESDAY SIMILAR TO MONDAY THAN
5-8 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MX
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCTD -SHRA/ISOLD
-TRSA WITH CLOUD DECKS MAINLY ABV 10KFT AGL...ESPECIALLY E OF KTUS.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AND
LCLZD NR MVFR CONDS. AWAY FROM STORMS...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. CLOUDS DECREASING W TO
E LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE TO POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON...WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG TROF MOVES THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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