Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250935
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TODAY AREA WIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A FEW BREEZES AND STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO UTAH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WELL. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE
OF A WIND ADVISORY THAT BLANKETS MY ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF MY
FORECAST AREA BELOW 7000 FT (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS).

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...REACHING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE BREEZY SIDE RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER WITH NEW
MEXICO. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER WINDS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY
INTO ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS...ALTHOUGH NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING
FOR TODAY. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL MAINLY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. THIS
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT SMALL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
EAST LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER DIVES TO THE SOUTH
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...THEN
MOVES INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE
DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE DAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 DEGS BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
EXPECT SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS
ABV 15K FT TODAY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TODAY QUICKLY INCREASING DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS APPROACHING 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS FROM 20Z INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE RELAXING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT TURBULENCE AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY
RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AREA WIDE WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEW POINTS
WILL LOWER MORE THAN EARLIER THOUGHT SO LOWERED RH VALUES FOR THE
AFTERNOON.  THE RESULT IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...INCLUDING MOST OF ZONE 153.  AFTER COORDINATING WITH
FLAGSTAFF DECIDED TO ADD 153 TO THE RED FLAG WARNING...PRIMARILY FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 7000 FT WHICH INCLUDES THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ALPINE DISTRICT.  RH VALUES ABOVE 7000 FT EXPECTED TO PRETTY MUCH
REMAIN 20 PERCENT AND ABOVE TODAY.

NOT AS WINDY AND COOLER ON TUESDAY BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BREAK IN THE WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.  WE COULD SEE WINDS
AND RH VALUES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
152 (SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY).

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ501>515.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ150>153
     BELOW 7000 FEET.

&&

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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