Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 170608 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1105 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

CORRECTED FIRE WEATHER SECTION AND W/W/A LINE

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. THEN THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS WILL PUSH EAST
ALLOWING FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
SE AZ. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND TO AROUND 20 KTS
THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KFHU.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE REGIME...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...EXCEPT BREEZY TO PERHAPS
WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ISSUED AT 250 PM MST/...A SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WAS PRODUCING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WIND BEING REPORTED IN COCHISE COUNTY.
THIS GUSTINESS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS HAD RESULTED IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT OF
MORE DETAILS.

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MOVING IT ACROSS ARIZONA
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN STATES. RIGHT NOW...JUST LOOKS LIKE MORE
WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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