Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 242210
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
310 PM MST Mon Oct 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures will continue this
week. Expect isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly east of Tucson into tonight. Dry conditions will then prevail
Tuesday into this weekend.
.DISCUSSION...A few showers have developed since shortly after 2 PM
MST in a narrow north-to-south band from west of Tucson southward to
the International border west of Nogales. These showers are
generally farther west versus the depiction of potential showers/
tstms per various high resolution models. Have maintained isolated
to scattered coverage of showers/tstms across much of southeast AZ
tonight. Based on the 24/12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC, appears that any
showers/tstms should end by day break Tuesday.
Deeper moisture moving across the area tonight is progged to be
shunted well eastward into the southern Rockies by midday Tuesday.
PoPs were lowered to depict precip-free conditions area-wide
Tuesday. Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC were very similar with
depicting an amplifying upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS
Wednesday and especially Thursday. Increasing heights/thicknesses
will translate into a warming trend, with high temps Thursday to
average about 10-15 degs above normal. Another shortwave trough
moving eastward across the Great Basin will flatten the ridge
somewhat Friday, then generally southwest flow aloft is progged to
prevail Saturday to Monday. The upshot: dry conditions with well
above normal daytime temps to continue this weekend and early next
.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
Expect ISOLD to SCT -TSRA/-SHRA into tonight followed by dry
conditions Tuesday. Otherwise, SCT-BKN clouds around 8k-12k ft AGL
with OVC layers above 20k ft AGL into Tuesday morning, then
decreasing clouds Tuesday afternoon. Surface wind variable in
direction less than 12 kts thru the valid period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms tonight. Dry conditions will then occur Tuesday into
early next week. 20-foot winds will be terrain driven generally less
than 15 mph.
.CLIMATE...Well above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
through the end of the month. The forecast high of 97 degrees at the
Tucson airport for Thursday, October 27 would be the latest 95 on
record by one day (the record is October 26, 2001). The rest of this
month will continue to see us challenge for the warmest October on
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