Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 061000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS BEEN VOID OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING UNLIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA HAD PRODUCED OUTFLOW
THAT WAS TRACKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD PHOENIX. THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTHWEST AND WEST OF PHOENIX.
NOT SURE THIS OUTLOW WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS TUCSON...BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CALL FOR A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS WEEK COMPARED TO LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENTERS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN REGION BY FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCTD CLOUD BASES AROUND 12-14 KFT AGL THIS AM AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS
AND LCL MVFR CONDS NR TSRA BTWN 06/19Z AND 07/04Z MAINLY FROM KTUS E
AND S. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL MAINLY BE
AT OR ABOVE 8K FT AGL. SFC WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH. THEREAFTER...SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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