Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
315 AM MST SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions will then prevail this weekend.
Moisture and a slight chance of showers returns to the area early
next week as an upper level low moves west across Sonora Mexico.


.DISCUSSION...Clear to localized partly cloudy conditions prevailed
this morning across SE AZ. Water vapor imagery this morning showed
an upper low over SW Wyoming with associated main trof axis
stretching across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Latest model runs
prog and secondary trof to deepen along the Arizona/New Mexico
border today with a few showers developing across southern Cochise
county. Highs today will run about 6-8 degrees below normal.

On Sunday the above mentioned along the AZ/NM border will turn into
a closed upper low over northern Sonora Mexico. Precipitable water
values will start to increase under easterly flow aloft. There is a
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms mainly south and east of
Tucson starting late in the afternoon into the evening hours. PoP
chances increase overnight into Monday morning from east to west as
the upper low retrogrades west across northern Sonora Mexico. Highs
on Sunday will be similar to today.

Generally cloudy day on Monday with scattered areas of light showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. Cooler with highs mostly in
70s across lower elevations of Tucson with 80s elsewhere across the
area. Low level gusty easterly winds kicks in Sunday evening and
continues throughout much of Monday.

Continued unsettled conditions on Tuesday with the upper low progged
to be over northern Baja. This low will then lift north northeast
across southeast California toward Nevada on Wednesday. Best chances
for storms will be across eastern half of the forecast area.
Conditions start to dry out on Thursday under westerly flow aloft.


.AVIATION...Valid through 25/12Z.
SKC to SCT clouds around 8-12k ft agl. Btwn 24/21z and 25/04z isold -
shra/ts psbl across sern sections of Cochise county including KDUG.
Sfc wind WLY/NWLY around 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Mainly light winds will occur Saturday, with elevated
easterly breezes Sunday through Wednesday of next week. After some
drying today, moisture will return to the area starting Sunday
afternoon as an upper level low begins to affect Arizona. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms will then persist across the area into
the middle of next week.





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