Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 272258
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 PM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRIER NEAR-SURFACE REGIME
WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...THE MAIN
THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/
COCHISE COUNTIES AS AN ONGOING MCS EXPANDS OVER NERN SONORA. VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN DEPICT THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DECREASE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF
TUCSON LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MARKEDLY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS ON TAP FRI AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SOME MESOSCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR FRI AFTERNOON/
EVENING WILL BE CONFINED ONLY NEAR MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON. FOR
NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
SAT. HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GENERALLY NELY STEERING
FLOW REGIME MAY DEVELOP. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME SWLY
SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN CONUS PLAINS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
YET AGAIN ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN-
THUR. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL FRI THRU
MON OR TUE...THEN HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
NEXT THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...THEN
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN
PREVAIL MAINLY EAST OF KTUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. BRIEF STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS


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