Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 010429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
927 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHOWING THESE
TRENDS...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/10Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU PSBL W
AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID...SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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