Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 261613
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT A CLEAR CUT DAY. 12Z SOUNDING HAS DECENT MOISTURE
AT 1.37 INCHES. RIGHT AT THE MOMENT WE CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONTINUED
RECYCLE OF SURGE MOISTURE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL REINFORCEMENT. MID
LEVELS HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DRYING TRENDS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UNDER 1 INCH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS PER
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND GOES WATER VAPOR TRENDS.
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE INCLUDING -7 AT H5 AND WITH THE
MORNING SOUNDING WE CAN STILL MANAGE DECENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN ANTICIPATED FLUCTUATION OF THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS MIGHT ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING IN MID LEVELS. OVERALL WE MIGHT BE
HEADING TOWARD A LESS BUSY DAY AND A QUICK LOOK AT EARLY SHORT RANGE
MODEL TRENDS INCLUDING 12Z U OF A WRF-NAM AND LATEST HRRR ALL
POINTING TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING. WE
ARE ADJUSTING THE FORECAST DOWN A BIT TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH AN EMPHASIS ON MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND VALLEY AREAS EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST BUT NOT AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY.

THE TIMING ON THE EASTERLY IMPULSE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
AND NORTHERN SONORA/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAS SLOWED A BIT AND COULD NOW
BE MORE OF A FACTOR ENHANCING SUNDAY AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/16Z.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED -TSRA/
-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
+TSRA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF KTUS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AT
8-15K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
GENERALLY ELY FLOW REGIME WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

SUN...
26/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH SE AZ FROM THE
EAST SUN AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS
TO FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE DEPICTED SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE LATE SUN NIGHT.

MON-FRI...
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO PREVAIL...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

HIGH TEMPS THRU NEXT FRI FROM TUCSON WWD WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A
DEGREE-OR-TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY. MEANWHILE...DAYTIME
TEMPS EAST OF TUCSON WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/BROST/FRANCIS





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.