National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KTWC 162104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
204 PM MST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING
TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEST COAST RIDGE WILL GUIDE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FLAT RIDGING AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE
CALL AS TO WHETHER TUCSON AIRPORT HITS 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST
TIME OF THE SEASON THIS AFTERNOON. IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON...WE`LL BE
WAITING AT LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS COOLING WILL MOVE IN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO A TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING
SOME GRADIENT ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR TUCSON
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE ONLY SKY COVER. SFC WIND GENERALLY SW-W 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THRU 17/02Z.  SFC WIND DIMINISHING AFT
17/02Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  BROST

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...PASS
OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY BUT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND KICK UP A BREEZE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 5-15% RANGE
BUT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER..AREAS AROUND ALPINE MAY REACH RED FLAG THRESHOLDS ON
FRIDAY. THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALPINE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY SO STAY TUNED TO
THE LATEST DISCUSSION/FORECASTS.  BEYOND THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO WEDNESDAY. BROST

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF THE
   WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON