Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 070305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
805 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few rain and snow showers may occur across the White
Mountains into Wednesday. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail
into early next week. Expect some minor cooling Wednesday, then
above normal daytime temperatures will return by Friday and continue
into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Latest IR satellite shows considerable cirroform
clouds streaming in from the west across Southeast Arizona. The
region is under west to northwesterly flow aloft with some very
minor disturbances moving through the flow. One such shortwave is
now moving through the four corners with the next progged to move
across Southeast Arizona on Wednesday. The latest model guidance is
fairly consistent with earlier runs with the NAM once again being
the most robust with precipitation chances into Wednesday compared
to all other guidance. Current thinking is that most areas won`t see
more than virga or perhaps some sprinkles. Will continue to maintain
slight chance PoPs in the White mountains with dry conditions
elsewhere tonight into Wednesday. Current forecast is in good
shape,n o updates this evening. See previous discussion for
additional information.


.AVIATION...Valid through 08/06Z.
Isolated -SHRA/-SHSN may occur across the White Mountains into
Wednesday. Otherwise, expect SCT clouds around 12k-15k ft AGL and
BKN-OVC clouds above 20k ft AGL through the period. Surface wind
will diminish to less than 12 kts for most locales this evening and
then continue into Wednesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of rain and snow showers
across the White Mountains into Wednesday. Otherwise, dry conditions
will continue into next Tuesday. 20-ft winds will diminish to less
than 10 mph this evening and continue into Wednesday, then winds
becoming easterly or southeasterly on Thursday and Friday. 20-foot
winds will mainly follow terrain at less than 15 mph this weekend
and early next week.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Thereafter, dry conditions will prevail into at
least next Tuesday as the upper level pattern will generally be
characterized with a trough over Canada extending south into the
central/eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a ridge will prevail near the West
Coast. Although precip-free conditions are forecast to occur, there
will be variable amounts of mainly high-level clouds moving across
southeast Arizona periodically.

Cooler temps will occur Wednesday as the shortwave trough passes
northeast of the area. A warming trend will then prevail Thur-Sat,
then only very minor daily temp changes should occur Sun-Tue. Thus,
high temps Fri-Tue will average about 5-10 degs or so above normal
depending upon location.






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