Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OF THE AREA MAY THEN BRING A FEW VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE STATE AS OF 28/04Z...WITH SCT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARIZONA AS PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THESE CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT A BIT OVER TIME...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE GRIDS SEEM TO REFLECT THIS
GENERAL TREND WELL WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. KTUS TOPPED OUT
AT 83 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1998...AND 14 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH OF
69 DEGREES FOR THIS DATE. EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
SERN AZ TOMORROW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE. THE
RECORD AT KTUS FOR TOMORROW IS ONCE AGAIN 85 DEGREES SET IN 1945.
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY STILL OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN MANY
LOCALES...HOWEVER SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED SPEEDS AND PERIODIC GUSTINESS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z.
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ELY/SELY 5-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL
FLATTEN BY SAT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO FRI. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI...THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ON TAP FRI NIGHT-SAT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT-MON UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR REMAINS LOW REGARDING PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
VIA THE 27/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIF
COAST NEAR 33N/133W TUE EVENING. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE WRN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
SE AZ DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT.
THE GFS WAS FASTER VERSUS THE ECWMF IN DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO
OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF DEPICTED LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THUR.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED INABILITY FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROVIDE
CLARITY REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL...HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR TUE NIGHT-THUR.
THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON NEXT THUR.

HIGH TEMPS FRI SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
A COUPLE OF DEGS OR SO OF DAILY COOLING THIS WEEKEND...THEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS MON. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON...THEN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY COOL AND TREND CLOSE TO NORMAL NEXT THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS





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