Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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066
FXUS65 KTWC 131054 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND AGAIN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WELL THE RIDGE CRESTED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
TEMPERATURES RESPONDED BY REACHING LEVELS WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF APRIL WITH A FEW RECORDS FALLING.  THAT SHOULD BE THE
PEAK...AT LEAST FOR NOW...IN THE HEAT AS THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.
ONLY SEEING A SLIGHT DROP IN THE LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY SO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY THANKS IN PART TO A MILDER START TO THE DAY.

THE WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY PRECEDED BY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.  THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR
ABOUT 4 DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 12
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.  WITH NW FLOW AND SIMILAR THICKNESS
LEVELS ON MONDAY EXPECTING TO SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES.

THEN A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR
ABOVE RECORD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  AN EXAMPLE...OUR CURRENT FORECAST
FOR TUCSON IS AT THE RECORD FOR TUESDAY AND ONE ABOVE FOR WEDNESDAY.

BEING THAT THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE THAT RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST THURSDAY WITH WEST TO SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES RESULTING IN LOWER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK A BIT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM
PRECIPITATION THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO PLAY
WITH SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 14/12Z.
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT...OTHERWISE CLR CONDITIONS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
UNDER 12 KTS...FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY LOW NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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