Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 291607
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH A FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULOFORM AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY 2-4 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE
TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS THIS TIME SUN.

29/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.26 INCHES...OR ABOUT
0.20 INCH LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MUCAPE YIELDED A VALUE OF 963
J/KG...AND ELY FLOW PREVAILED IN THE 700-300 MB LAYER. SOME STORM
MOTION PARAMETERS WERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 29/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH 595 DM HIGH CENTERED NEAR SALT LAKE CITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
GENERALLY ELY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO LATER TODAY VERSUS
SUN...OR MAINLY IN THE 18Z-19Z PERIOD. THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND/OR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN
COCHISE COUNTY. GENERALLY WWD MOVING/PROPAGATING STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

A PARTICULARLY ENHANCED AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR SOUTHWEST-TO-
WEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS...GUSTY OUTFLOWS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WRN PIMA COUNTY. OTHERWISE
AND HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A FEW THUNDERSTORM
GENERATED GUSTS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE BULK OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD BE WEST OF TUCSON THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
MAINLY OF 40-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PREVAIL WEST OF KTUS BY 30/04Z...THOUGH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA MAY CONTINUE ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. OUTSIDE OF TSRA...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN
12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF COCHISE
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE WEST...AND
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY GENERATE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.

THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
THE UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.