Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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080
FXUS65 KTWC 252021
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
121 PM MST Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Increased moisture will resulted in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson eastward through
Monday. Thereafter, drying will significantly limit thunderstorms
the remainder of the week. A break from the historic heat this week
as temperatures will remain normal to just slightly above seasonal
normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Another very hot late June afternoon across
the area with the subtropical high center located near the
international border. There is adequate moisture to work with as
surface dewpoints are in the 40s to lower 50s and derived PWAT
values are around 1 inch. Latest visible satellite imagery shows
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with convective development
ongoing across the higher terrain especially near the Santa Rita and
Chiricahua mountains. As the afternoon progresses, expect the
convection to move off the higher terrain primarily into the valleys
of Santa Cruz, Cochise, Graham and Greenlee Counties with gusty
winds being the main threat. Rainfall amounts will mostly remain
less than 0.5" inch with the stronger storms. Any isolated
convection in the Tucson metro will be limited mostly off of
outflows from higher terrain, but certainly the best chances will
remain east of Tucson.

A fairly similar scenario is on tap Monday with the bulk of the
showers and thunderstorms once again east of Tucson with the metro
area being on the western edge. Thereafter, as a more active higher
latitude pattern sets up, the flow aloft becomes more westerly as
the subtropical high weakens and pushes just south of the area. This
will bring our temperatures down to more normal late June
temperatures as the week progresses. However, with the slightly
cooler temperatures, drier air will make its way into just about the
entire forecast area. Slight chances of thunderstorms will be mostly
limited to right along the international border starting Tuesday and
continuing into next weekend. Still waiting for signs of the classic
monsoon setup with the subtropical high relocating to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 27/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-15k ft AGL thru the forecast period. Isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA from KTUS/KOLS eastward through this evening
and again Monday afternoon. SFC wind less than 12 kts. A few of the
stronger SHRA/TSRA may produce wind gusts to 40 kts and brief MVFR
conditions. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms generally east
and south of Tucson through Tuesday. Expect decreasing coverage of
thunderstorms Wednesday, with activity limited to near the
International Border Thursday into the weekend. Winds (20-foot) will
exhibit diurnal trends with speeds mainly less than 15 mph. Although
some elevated gusts may occur due to strong daytime heating and/or
near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for
AZZ501>507-509-515.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ514.

&&

$$

GL

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