Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 061028
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST THU MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND SIERRA VISTA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY WHERE
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE
IN EFFECT LATER TODAY ACROSS MOST OF COCHISE COUNTY NORTH INTO SRN
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNING ALSO IN EFFECT LATER
TODAY FOR ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS MORNING. AS THIS LOW
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAXES THAT
WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO
THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

DRY NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WIND WITH ALL TERMINAL
SITES SEEING GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE S-SW. KDUG WILL LIKELY BE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STRONGEST
GUSTS. A CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF KTUS WHERE SCT-BKN 8-12K FT
AGL WILL DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SLGT CHC FOR -SHRA/EMBDD TS W-NW OF
KTUS AFT 06/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ARE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TODAY WILL BE FROM TUCSON
EAST INTO COCHISE COUNTY. A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
ZONES 151...152 AND SRN 153 FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. 20-
FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR AZZ151>153.

  WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FOR AZZ507-508-511>513.

  BLOWING DUST ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FOR AZZ507>509.

&&

$$

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