Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 282152
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND FOR
TUCSON...SAFFORD AND THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HERE COMES THE HEAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AS WELL AS A SECONDARY HIGH BUILDING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS AND PUSH PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE 100 DEGREE
MARK THIS WEEKEND. HEAT WILL MAX OUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RECEDING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 105 IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR TUCSON SUNDAY OR MONDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
BE JUST SHORT OF THAT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON DEVELOPING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NEW WEEK WHILE ALSO SEEING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
RETURN.

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES HAS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED ABOUT 800 MILES
SOUTH OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. CURRENT TRACKS DO NOT PUT IT IN
A VERY GOOD POSITION TO ADD MUCH MOISTURE TO OUR AREA. A COUPLE OF
THINGS THAT COULD CHANGE THAT ARE A SMALL SHIFT OF THE TRACK
EASTWARD AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH CAN DIG. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AND FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONS. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT TAF SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SOME GUSTINESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CANTIN



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