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000
FXUS65 KTWC 090925
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST SUN MAR 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...565 DM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SRN SONORA IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS ACROSS SE AZ
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AND
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINGERING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR
SERN SECTIONS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND FLATTEN MON...
THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TUE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON TUE AFTERNOON. 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE
SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN AZ
WED. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THUR...THEN
WEAKEN AND EJECT WELL EAST OF THE AREA FRI.

THE ECMWF DEPICTS DRY CONDITIONS WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...
THE GFS PRODUCES VERY LIGHT QPF/S ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THUR
AFTERNOON. FOR CONTINUITY...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THUR. THEREAFTER...A BAGGY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVER SE AZ FRI...THEN FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY NWLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FRI-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED SAT.
WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR MON FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
TUE-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z.
EXPECT A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FT AGL ACROSS FAR SE AZ AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKC TODAY THEN A FEW-SCT
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WIND INTO THIS AFTERNOON ELY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.
SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10
KTS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME
BREEZINESS WILL HAPPEN AGAIN TUESDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS...
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS