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000
FXUS65 KTWC 121005
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EAST
OF TUCSON INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS SW NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO FAR
SE AZ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. THE CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS LOW REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELY WIND ACROSS THE
TUCSON METRO AREA TODAY. AN ELY SURFACE WIND MAY OCCUR...ALTHOUGH
THE STRENGTH AND ONSET OF OCCURRENCE IS UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE FAVORED THE STRONGER NAM VERSUS THE GFS/LAMP
SOLUTIONS. A SOMEWHAT STRONG ELY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR TUCSON
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS NV EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
RETROGRADE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO SRN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY
THUR AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THUR AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THUR NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AS WAS THE CASE 24
HOURS AGO...THE 12/00Z GFS WAS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE ECMWF. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
FAVORED THE SLOWER ECMWF MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THUR NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7500-8000 FEET WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.

THEREAFTER...NWLY FLOW ALOFT THUR NIGHT-SAT IS PROGGED TO BECOME
FAIRLY STRONG NLY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
CHIHUAHUA. THE VERY DRY FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
CLEAR SKIES SAT-SUN. GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SUN.
THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BY NEXT TUE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE
GFS DEPICTING UPPER RIDGE TO BE OVER SE AZ...AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS. EITHER SOLUTION YIELDED DRY CONDITIONS MON-TUE.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED TUE FROM
TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. HOWEVER...EXPECT COOLER TEMPS TODAY
ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES. MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR
THUR-FRI FROM TUCSON WWD...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPS ARE ON TAP ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SAT-TUE...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS BY NEXT TUE FORECAST TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 13/12Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAINLY EAST OF KTUS TODAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS
LOW REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELY WIND AT KTUS LATER TODAY.
ELY SURFACE WIND MAY OCCUR...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. A SOMEWHAT STRONG ELY WIND SHOULD OCCUR AT KTUS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR STRONG AND GUSTY
ELY/SELY WINDS TODAY AT THE KDUG TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL WILL DEVELOP PRIMARILY EAST
OF KTUS TODAY...AND A FEW-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SHOULD
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
MORNING EAST OF TUCSON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED
HUMIDITIES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WESTWARD EXTENT
OF EAST WINDS LATER TODAY. THESE WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
TUCSON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND WIND SPEEDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS