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000
FXUS65 KTWC 101610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME.
VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME ONGOING WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE TEMPS
WERE NEARLY 5-15 DEGS F LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 10/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING DEPICTED A VERY DRY REGIME...WITH TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE
OF NEARLY 0.20 INCH. THE COLUMN WAS NEARLY SATURATED ABOVE 500 MB.
24 HR TEMP CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED WARMING OF ABOUT 2-12 DEGS C
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. 10/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 563 DM LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST VICINITY
24N/122W. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 700 MB.

FAIRLY THICK MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY LIKELY INTO MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. BASED
ON SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 10/12Z GFS/NAM MOISTURE FIELDS...
HAVE INCREASED THE GRIDDED DATA SKY VALUES TO DEPICT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND THE CONSIDERABLE WARMING AS PER THE
10/12Z KTWC SOUNDING. HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
LIGHT GENERALLY ELY/SELY SURFACE WINDS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
AROUND 550 MILES OFF NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THIS LOW WILL BECOME AN
INCREASED PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW STARTS TO EJECT THROUGH THE STATE LATER THIS
WEEK...IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOVE 10K FT AGL THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING OR 11/12Z. SURFACE WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
GENERALLY ELY/SELY THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
20-FOOT WINDS SHOULD OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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FRANCIS