Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272153
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
THIS WIND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE STORM
SYSTEM SLATED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTH TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS POSITIONING WOULD KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND NORTH OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NOT STARTING UP UNTIL MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
MODELS EVENTUALLY TRACK THE STORM THROUGH ARIZONA ON MONDAY. THE
BEST TIME FRAME FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH FEATURES WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE AROUND 2 FEET OF
SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS
GENERALLY AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 28/12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-6K FT
PSBL THEREAFTER. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT
CHC OF -SHRA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KTUS SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...SWLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 13-23 KTS WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 20-30 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KDUG AND KOLS
TERMINALS. WINDS DECREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET BUT GENERALLY SOUTH
AT 8-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SWLY WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY...WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY EARLY
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR EAST OF
TUCSON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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