Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220408

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
908 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will gradually increase to
record levels by Thanksgiving and into the upcoming weekend. Dry
conditions will continue into at least early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Abundant high cloud cover made for a very colorful
sunset this evening after a relatively cool but still warmer than
average day.  The next chance for seeing high temperatures this
"cool" looks to be the middle of next week.  Currently temperatures
are running a little warmer than 24 hours ago thanks to the somewhat
thicker cloud cover this evening.  The clouds will linger through
the night and dissipate early Wednesday.  The high clouds could
result in a rather colorful sunrise tomorrow.  No changes made to
the current forecast and further details about the upcoming dry and
warmer than normal weather can be found below.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL into Wednesday morning with clearing
during the afternoon hours. SFC wind NWLY but less than 10 kts this
afternoon becoming terrain driven overnight. Expect ELY/SELY winds
to develop Wednesday morning at 10-15 kts. Speeds will diminish late
Wednesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through at least the
next 7 days. Well above normal temperatures return to the region
Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds
will be gusty from the southeast to east on Wednesday. Winds will be
terrain driven and mainly less than 15 mph at other times.


.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A dry northerly flow over our area with
strong high pressure off the Baja coast and a trough downstream.
Just some cirrus level moisture with a very dry boundary layer.
Surface dew points mixing down into the teens and 20s this afternoon.

Surface high pressure building from southern Canada down the Front
Range and central to southern Plains over the next 24 hours, with a
back-door surface cold front washing out as it tries to push our way
from New Mexico. We`ll get some gusty east winds at times Wednesday,
mainly in the morning hours.

The ridge centered just off the Baja Peninsula will reorient it`s
axis in a northeasterly direction and into our area over the next 48
hours as a strong system off the Pacific Northwest coast tries to
push inland. As a result, expect afternoon high temperatures to soar
past record levels to almost 20 degrees above average by Thursday
and Friday through the holiday weekend.

A trough pushing through the region north of our area will knock
temperatures back to only 5 to 8 degrees above average early next

No rain (or snow) in sight, as we head toward the end of a very warm
and dry November.






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