Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280920
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 AM MST THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ONE MORE DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY PERIOD TO CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND START SEPTEMBER.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE INITIAL DRY AIR WEDNESDAY WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS PUTS ARIZONA
UNDER A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS RETURNING TO THE USUAL HOT SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK IN STARTING TUESDAY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEING LIMITED TO ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FROM NOGALES EAST. SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA
MIGHT SEE A RETURN TO DEEPER MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z. SKC CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR HAD MOVED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THE DRYING WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RH
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A
MODERATION IN RH LEVELS AS MOISTURE TRIES MOVING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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