Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 010920
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS NORTH OF TUCSON. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL THEN PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SECOND LOW IS OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. THE LOW WILL FILL A BIT AS IT LIFTS TOWARD COLORADO
TODAY...WITH REMNANTS SHEARING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
TUCSON. WE WILL PROBABLY AGAIN SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THERE
AS WELL. THE GRADIENT DOESN`T SUPPORT WIND SPEEDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR
BLOWING DUST...BUT WE WILL AGAIN KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL
OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS.

A STRONG RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP QUICKLY TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
TUESDAY...AND THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC IS ON A LOWER LATITUDE AND
WETTER TRAJECTORY THAN RECENT SYSTEMS. IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE
AT LEAST SOME OF IT`S HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT IN A DECENT SPLIT
TOWARD ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASING WIND THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FRIDAY...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS. WE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO GEAR UP FOR MORE BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

WE WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL LIKELY UNDER-FORECASTING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO SOME EXTENT AS THE STORM WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL WITH ISOLD TO SCT -
SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY N-NE OF KTUS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WIND
GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING...BECOMING WLY/NWLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 8-12 KTS. A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NM BORDER AREAS INCLUDING KDUG. SFC
WIND DECREASING DURING THE EARLY EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THEREAFTER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA
RIVER VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

MEYER/FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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