Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 292120
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINED RATHER LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW STORMS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY IN COCHISE
COUNTY. MODELS SUGGEST THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AND THURSDAY AS
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND WESTERLY STEERING FLOW STAYS IN PLACE.
MODELS SHOW THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS BUILDS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK
BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN IMPULSE TO HELP
TRIGGER AND ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICTED A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE WEST COAST.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER DRYING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO TODAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOME OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL INTO
THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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