Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
302 AM MST THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona has plenty of moisture for
continued mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next week.
Perhaps some decrease in coverage will occur today with a strong
upswing again Friday. Expect hotter than average daytime
temperatures through Thursday followed by moderating temperatures by
early next week.


.Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms stretched across
the area from Sells to Tucson and to Lordsburg New Mexico. Some of
the thunderstorms have moved over the same general area today.
However, rain gauges have not really experienced as much rainfall as
suggested by radar. At any rate, the latest HRRR model supported
showers and thunderstorms through at least 11z. Thereafter, looking
at a break in the weather for much of the day. That said, will
indicated a somewhat dry forecast for this afternoon and evening
based on the rain cooled sounding profile. Latest GFS showed the
upper high remaining over southern Nevada through at least Friday,
then shifting it to a position over northern New Mexico by Monday.
The model showed a significant upswing in rainfall coverage this
weekend. At any rate, will keep similar POP values going in the
forecast and delay the cooler daytime temperatures until Saturday
into early next week.


Isold to sctd -SHRA and -TSRA will continue thru 28/13z then
dissipate. Brief wind gusts to 35 mph and MVFR conds psbl with
stronger TSRA. Otherwise, sfc wind mainly less than 10 kts. Debris
cloud cover above 10k ft agl btwn 29/13z and 29/17z with isold -
shra/ts developing this afternoon over the higher terrain with a few
storms drifting SW in the valleys thru 29/06z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will continue into next week. Afternoon temperatures will remain a
bit warmer than average through Friday, then drop to near or just
slightly below normal by early next week.






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