Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 150400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS
EAST OF TUCSON TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 70S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 75 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 83 DEGS...
WHICH WAS 1 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15/09Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN KTS THROUGH AROUND 15/06Z.
THEREAFTER INTO TUESDAY MORNING....SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO ELY/SELY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STRONGER
ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INCLUDING
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLOUD BASES
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW.
THEREFORE....ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH A GREAT VIEW FOR THE TOTAL ECLIPSE TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO FLOW INCREASING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRRUS STARTING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT BEHIND WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY EAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT
IN SOME LOCATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYERS REMAIN MIXED OR MIX OUT EARLY.

ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF US WILL ENHANCE OUR
GRADIENT INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH A WATCH EAST OF
TUCSON...DETAILS BELOW.

STILL WATCHING MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RESOLUTIONS WITH BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRABBING ONTO A NICE LITTLE IMPULSE SPLITTING INTO THE BASE OF
THE RIDGE WELL OFFSHORE AROUND MID WEEK AND COMBINING WITH MODEST
SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES. PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN STARTED TRIED TO CUT OFF
SOME OF THIS ENERGY BUT IS NOW OPENING UP AGAIN WITH THE 12Z RUN.
GFS REMAINS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL HAS STRONG POTENTIAL
OF SHAPING UP INTO A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND COULD END UP
CAUSING DRY MICROBURST CONCERNS BY NEXT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE
TYPICALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF THESE SNEAK IN DURING THE SPRING AND GIVE
A BRIEF EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER THUNDERSTORM SEASON AS RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION ADDS TO THE MIX.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST AZZ151 AND SOUTHERN AZZ152.
  (INCLUDING COCHISE...SOUTHEAST SANTA CRUZ...EAST GRAHAM AND
  SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION/AVIATION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...MEYER/HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS






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