Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 312117
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
IN DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL TREND SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS THIS EVENING AND FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY IN DUST PRONE SPOTS. BASED ON
THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE...MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA AND IN SONORA MEXICO AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO COULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED FLOWS IN SOME OF THE LARGER WASHES AND STREAMS. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR SANTA CRUZ...GREENLEE...EASTERN GRAHAM
AND THE SOUTHERN ONE-HALF OF COCHISE COUNTIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGESTED THAT BE BEST TIME FRAME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...MORE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECTED CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS...WITH
KOLS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS MONSOON MOISTURE SURGES
IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALSO TRANSLATE INTO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A DRYING TREND WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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