Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 050404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH IS QUICKLY MOVING SWD OUT OF THE AREA AND
DISSIPATING. LATEST WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DECENT PUSH OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR INTO ARIZONA AS THE MAIN LOW IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH OCCURRED
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEEDING THIS VALUE. AREA TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S...AT LEAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES
AND CALM WINDS...WILL SEE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND REDUCED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT AND POPS TO
REMOVE MENTION OF ANY FURTHER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE SEE
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AOA 8K FT
AGL MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING BETWEEN 05/15Z AND
05/18Z. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 14-18 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
THE KTUS TERMINAL TO POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. 20-FT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 15-20 MPH BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SOME
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A
LARGER AREA AND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...ANOTHER
PIECE OF THE LARGE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SW US AND ERN PACIFIC
WILL START TO ORGANIZE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...WINDS IN
SE AZ WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AND IT MAY BECOME FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
THIS SCENARIO TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

THEREFORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW US EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY YIELDING TEMPERATURES THAT SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE
MARK FROM TUCSON WESTWARD.  LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SWEEPING A
TROUGH INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE PARTICULARS CONCERNING ITS SPEED AND STRENGTH ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR.  THIS SHOULD COOL US BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL...AND COULD MEAN LATE WEEK SHOWERS...BUT PERHAPS JUST WIND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...DROZD
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CANTIN/FRENCH




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