Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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454
FXUS65 KTWC 261618
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
918 AM MST Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect markedly less wind today, then strong and
gusty winds will occur again Friday into Saturday along with a
chance of showers east of Tucson. Cooler Saturday followed by dry
conditions with a warming trend next week. Another round of strong
winds possible next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A spring pattern with enhanced winds will continue
into early next week. We`re keeping a brisk northwesterly flow
aloft in an amplified pattern between major features. A very
strong ridge just off the west coast with a mean trough position
through much of the Great Basin and Front Range. As systems slide
down and reinforce the back side of the trough, we go from breezy
to windy. That will start to happen again Thursday afternoon, with
Friday another day of particular concern for dust, fire weather,
and advisory level winds. Please see the previous discussion below
for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/18Z.
SKC to SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL thru fcst pd. SFC wind less
than 10 kts and vrbl in direction thru 26/18z then bcmg W/NW 10-22
kts with gust to 30 kts after 26/18z. The strongest speeds will
be E of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Not as windy today but still looking at gusty W/NW
winds this afternoon.

Somewhat stronger winds are expected Thursday afternoon with min RHs
in the 10-15% range leading to areas of elevated and local critical
Fire weather conditions.  Winds are expected to increase further
Friday as a system dives across the area however RH levels will be a
bit higher and marginal for critical fire weather conditions.

Otherwise, dry conditions will occur into Friday morning except for
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White
Mountains this evening. There is a chance of showers across the
White Mountains Friday, then a chance of showers east of Tucson
Friday night into Saturday. Dry conditions are expected Sunday into
early next week.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Not as windy today versus Tuesday, but will
still see gusty NW winds this afternoon. The next storm system
moving into the Great Basin as the week closes will bring another
round of breezy to windy conditions, especially on Friday and
Saturday. Likely will need another round of wind and dust
advisories along with fire weather warnings. Fire weather concerns
are addressed in the fire weather section below. This system will
also bring a chance of showers or thunderstorms to mainly the
White Mountains Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Highs today around normal then 3-6 degrees warmer Thursday before
cooling off a few degrees on Friday. Cooler Saturday with highs
running 6-9 degrees below normal. Colder airmass could result in
freezing temperatures Sunday morning in the usually cold spots east
and south of Tucson.

Dry with a warming trends Sunday into early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer

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