Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 190323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
823 PM MST Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will be returning to southeast Arizona this
weekend bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm chances will continue through at least the middle of
next week.


.DISCUSSION...Latest IR satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies
across southeast Arizona this evening with thunderstorm activity
remaining well to our south across Sonora. Moisture is starting to
increase across the region with the surface dewpoints in the upper
40s to lower 50s across the international border and satellite
derived PWAT values about an inch. The mid level southerly flow will
continue to transport additional moisture into the area overnight
and we still can`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm in
southern Cochise County overnight with the assistance of any outflows
from Sonora. Back to a more typical monsoon regime starting Saturday
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from Tucson
eastward. Current forecast is in good shape, no updates this


.AVIATION...Valid thru 20/06z.
Scattered clouds 8k-12k ft AGL especially east and south of KTUS
into Saturday morning. A few -SHRA/-TSRA may occur near the
international border near KDUG overnight. Isold to Sct TSRA
developing Saturday, mainly after 19z. Expect normal diurnal wind
trends less than 12 kts through Saturday except for gusts in TSRA
Saturday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms across far southeast sections of the area tonight.
Increased moisture will then bring scattered thunderstorms Saturday
into next week. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph aside from
thunderstorm gusts.






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