Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 301616
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS TODAY WILL GENERATE
STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE HAD AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA NOW EXITING TO THE WEST BUT STILL HOLDING TOGETHER. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH-UP. INITIAL
THOUGHTS WERE THAT...COMBINED WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...WE MAY
BE A LITTLE WORKED OVER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
FLOW IS UNUSUALLY BRISK FROM H6 ALL THE WAY INTO UPPER LEVELS WITH
25 TO 50 KTS OF FLOW DEPENDING ON LEVEL. THIS WILL TEND TO RESET
INTO MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO CLEAR THE DEBRIS CLOUD QUICKER...ALLOWING BETTER SOLAR
INSOLATION BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WE`RE ALSO SEEING A
WEAK EASTERLY INFLECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA / FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REMARKABLE...BUT MOVEMENT
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL COMBINE TO ELEVATE INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS A CONCERN ALONG WITH BETTER
ORGANIZATION. THEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
MOVING INTO A RECONSOLIDATING H7 THETA-E AXIS WEST OF TUCSON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WE MADE A PRELIMINARY ADJUSTMENT THAT INCREASES THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW INTO SOME LOWER
DESERT LOCATIONS INCLUDING EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL...THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LATER.

OTHERWISE...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS THE
GREAT BASIN HIGH DOMINATES. BY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL BE ALONG THE CO/NM STATE LINE WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP/MOISTURE
SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/17Z.
ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM KTUS
SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS/KALK/KFHU. SKIES WILL
CLEAR UP JUST SLIGHTLY FOR A TIME LATER ON THIS MORNING BEFORE
ISOLATED TO SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/LADER


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