Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 192104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
204 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ARIZONA BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...WITH A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS
MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING
WHICH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WAS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. I INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES OUT WEST FROM WHAT I INHERITED THIS MORNING AND SO FAR
THIS SEEMS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO
WHAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF MODELS WERE SUGGESTING AS
WELL.

POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE A NEARLY
CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND SCATTERED TYPE POPS
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY
AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PSBL IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD





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