Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
830 PM MST Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with milder temperatures and gusty winds
at times into early next week. We will see another cool-down with a
few showers possible around the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Clear skies and light surface winds prevail across
southeast Arizona this evening. A very dry regime was ongoing, with
dewpoints at lower elevations valid 8 PM MST ranging from the mid
teens to 20s. 25/00Z KTWC sounding also depicted a very dry profile,
with total precip water value of only 0.27 inch. Upper level ridge
axis that extended from northwestern Sonora Mexico northeastward
into Wyoming will move east of the area by daybreak Saturday.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough presently approaching the California
coast will move eastward into California early Saturday morning,
then continue eastward across Arizona later Saturday. The main
impact from this system Saturday for southeast Arizona will be an
increase in mid and high-level clouds as well as gusty westerly
winds, especially Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening.
High temperatures Saturday will be about 5-10 degrees warmer versus
this afternoon, with the greatest warming east of Tucson.

There are no updates warranted at this time. Please refer to the
additional sections for further detail.


.AVIATION...Valid through 26/06Z.
Clear skies or a few cirrus clouds the rest of tonight, then SCT to
BKN clouds mainly above 15k ft AGL Saturday into Saturday evening.
Surface wind variable in direction less than 12 kts thru about
25/16Z, then surface wind wly/nwly 12-20 kts with gusts around 25
kts late Saturday morning into Saturday evening. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A series of weather systems will bring windy
conditions at times over the next 7 days. The strongest winds are
expected to be Saturday afternoon, Tuesday and perhaps next Friday.
For Saturday afternoon, brief Red Flag conditions are possible in a
few locations (mainly around southern portions of Fire Weather Zones
151 and 152, including southern portions of Cochise county), but are
not expected to be sustained or widespread enough to warrant a
warning at this time.

Otherwise, expect dry conditions through Monday night followed by a
chance of showers periodically Tuesday into next Friday, especially
north and east of Tucson.


.PREV DISCUSSION /246 PM MST/...Sunny skies with temperatures
rebounding this afternoon as a shortwave ridge phases across the
area in a busy but slightly less amplified pattern. A weather system
passing mainly north of our area Saturday will bring gusty afternoon
winds and briefly reversing our warming trend Sunday. Another system
Tuesday with a third Friday, all typical spring systems bringing
mainly winds and moderation to our temperatures as precip generally
misses to our north.






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