Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 242205
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail through Saturday along with
cooler temperatures. A brief warmup on Saturday before a fast moving
system pushes across the area on Sunday. A stronger Pacific storm
will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow to the area on
Monday and Tuesday along with below normal temperatures. Dry and
warmer weather returns starting Wednesday.
.DISCUSSION...A series of Pacific weather systems will keep a
small roller coaster ride in temperatures over the next 5 days
before much warmer temperatures return to the area late next week.
Zonal flow tonight will bring some thin high clouds otherwise it
will be clear with overnight low temperatures continuing on the cool
side, similar to this morning.
Warmer Saturday, but still below normal, under a mix of high clouds
and sunshine. Our next precip weather maker will be moving down the
California coast. This feature will quickly move across the area on
Sunday bringing increased cloud cover and a chance of rain/snow
showers mainly to the White mountains. Elsewhere mainly virga with a
few sprinkles around due to drier low levels. Highs Sunday will
be 4-6 degrees cooler than Saturday.
A little warmer with clouds increasing once again on Monday as the
next Pacific weather system, this one a little stronger, approaches
the area. There is a slight chance of showers late Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. However the best precipitation chances window
will be late Monday night into Tuesday. Not big precip maker.
After that strong warming trend Wednesday thru Friday.
.AVIATION...Valid through 25/23Z.
Clear skies to scattered clouds above 20k ft AGL into Saturday
afternoon, with increasing high clouds Saturday afternoon. SFC WND
wly/nwly at 10-18 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts thru 25/02Z. The
strongest wind will be east of KTUS in the vicinity of KDUG and
KSAD. Between 25/02Z and 25/19Z, SFC WND will be less than 12 kts.
Aft 25/19Z, SFC WND will be wly/nwly at 8-16 kts with gusts to 20-25
kts, with the strongest wind again east of KTUS in the vicinity of
KDUG and KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail areawide through
Saturday night. There will then be a slight chance of showers across
the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday, with even higher
precipitation chances in the White Mountains. A Pacific system will
bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers, late Monday
into Tuesday. Dry conditions will return next Wednesday through
Friday. Expect gusty west to northwest 20-foot winds during the
afternoon and early evening hours primarily east of Tucson through
Tuesday, with breezy to windy 20-foot winds across Cochise county on
Sunday. Critical fire weather thresholds may be met for a few hours
Sunday afternoon across the southern half of Cochise county, with
winds speeds easily exceeding criteria, but minimum relative
humidity values and fire danger both marginal at this time.
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