Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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132
FXUS65 KTWC 202233
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
333 PM MST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEK AS WEATHER SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF NEVADA...UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...WITH
A SWATH OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY. A SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS ARIZONA. THE FIRST OCCURS LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THE LOW MOVING BODILY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AS THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INTO UTAH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO ARIZONA AND
THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
AND DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...MORE SPECIFICALLY ON
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS REGARDING THE IMPACTS THE INCREASING WINDS WILL HAVE ON THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY).

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...HIGH TEMPS WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING BACK UP
AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BY MAINLY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUATION OF
A DRY FORECAST DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FT AGL. SURFACE WINDS THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS UNTIL 21/03Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE TO 14-24 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS AFTER
21/15Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE MET BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 151 AND 152. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ANTICIPATED SHORT DURATION AND
RELATIVELY LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL THRESHOLD EXCEEDANCE
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF EITHER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR A RED FLAG
WARNING AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS...FIRE CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE `POTENTIAL` ISSUANCE OF WATCHES
AND/OR WARNINGS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CARLAW

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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