Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 282105
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED AND DOMINATED BY A STRONG
LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST...WHICH IS
DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 28N/130W IS POISED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY
MONDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE MEAN RIDGE STAYS PUT
ACROSS THE WEST...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL TRACK EAST SUNDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

OTHERWISE...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TRACKING INTO BAJA AND SONORA MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
FAR SE CORNER OF THE STATE...THEY ARE BACKING OFF ON THE AMOUNT. MY
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT THE AREA WILL HAVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...I HAVE DECIDED TO SLIGHTLY PAIR BACK
ON POPS ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/23Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KTS. EXPECT WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH FAIR NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TRANSLATE INTO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
MARCH 28TH AND SUNDAY MARCH 29TH.

DATE                    MARCH 28TH     MARCH 29TH
                          FCST RCD/YR    FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       94  91/1943    92  91/1943
AJO                       94  97/1988    93  93/1943
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         94  94/1986    93  98/1971
PICACHO PEAK              94  92/1988    93  93/2004
NOGALES                   89  84/1986    86  85/1967
FORT THOMAS               89  87/1986    87  86/2012
SAFFORD                   87  91/1988    86  89/1953
SIERRA VISTA              85  82/1967    83  83/2012
TOMBSTONE                 85  87/1917    83  86/1943
WILLCOX                   85  89/1916    83  88/1916
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT    86  85/2012    84  85/2012

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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