Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270330
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. DID
A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO LOWER POP VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN
PREVAIL MAINLY FROM KTUS EAST AND SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL MOSTLY BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS FIRE ZONE 150 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 26/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SWRN CONUS STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THRU SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER... SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED SE OF THE AREA...AND AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED YET AGAIN ADJACENT THE WEST COAST.

AT ANY RATE...THIS BROAD SCALE PATTERN SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THUR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN BE CONFINED MOSTLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH FRI INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY FRI-WED. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL THUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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