Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 181615
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRIMARILY IN PORTIONS OF COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES TODAY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AS WELL AS WEST TEXAS. LATEST METARS AROUND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY INDICATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON AREA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH THE 18/12Z
KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING A PW OF 1.94 INCHES. THAT SAID...INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE SITUATION AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OUR WAY. SO BY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BASE MY
AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEAVILY ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE SAN PEDRO AND SANTA
CRUZ AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SANTA CRUZ COUNTY PORTION OF THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER AS WELL AS FOR
THE SAN PEDRO RIVER SOUTH OF BENSON. ALSO...EXPECT HEAVY FLOW IN
STREAMS AND WASHES AS WELL AS SOME ROAD FLOODING IN MAINLY PORTIONS
OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS
PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH A FEW
PLACES EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 18Z. SURFACE WINDS
WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MOST
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEST AND CENTRAL AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 2 TO 5 INCH
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...GREENLEE...AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GRAHAM COUNTY. ONGOING AND EXPECTED WASH AND
MAIN STEM FLOODING WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PIMA AND AREAS OF PINAL COUNTY SAW BETWEEN 1 AND
1.6 INCHES. AS FAR AS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...THE MOUNTAINS SAW THE
MOST WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES...BUT MUCH LOWER VALUES
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

REMNANT OF LOW LEVEL ODILE CIRCULATION NOW PUSHING THROUGH COCHISE
COUNTY WITH PLENTY OF RAIN STILL ONGOING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BEHIND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. EXTENSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HARDEST
HIT LOCATIONS.

WE WILL RECIRCULATE THIS MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HANGING
ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON POLO CURRENTLY
STILL WELL SOUTH OF BAJA...BUT AT THIS POINT HE DOESN`T LOOK LIKE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN






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