Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 021643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
942 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DUE TO A TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL START BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK. MODELS SHOWED THIS SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM ON
THURSDAY AND MORE SO FRIDAY. THE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
SKC. ELY/SELY SFC WIND THIS MORNING AT 10-15 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR KSAD. SWLY/NWLY WIND THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT WEAKER 20-FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE GILA RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTINESS WEDNESDAY.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DIRTY RIDGE (A FEW EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES WITH
PATCHES OF MOISTURE AT VARIOUS LEVELS) WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
OVERHEAD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING 8 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. JUST A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS (FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY). BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MAY...WHICH MEANS 90S FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

WE`RE SEEING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT MEANS A DEEP TROUGH UPSTREAM IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DECENT SPLIT OF ENERGY TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT FOR ARIZONA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD SLOW A BIT AS IT PUSHES
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOSING
SOME HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND AND
ASSOCIATED CONCERNS ABOUT BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
PARAMETERS. EVEN WITH THE NORMALLY WETTER TRAJECTORY AND
TIMING...THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO FROM THE SOUTH.
STILL...THE CURRENT MODEL MOISTURE TRENDS FEEL A TAD UNDER-DONE FOR
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

&&

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