Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 261052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
350 AM MST Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail through Thursday. Expect
markedly less wind today, then strong and gusty winds will occur
again Friday into Saturday along with a chance of showers east of
Tucson. Cooler Saturday followed by dry conditions with a warming
trend next week.


.DISCUSSION...Not as windy today versus Tuesday, but will still see
gusty NW winds this afternoon. The next storm system moving into the
Great Basin as the week closes will bring another round of breezy to
windy conditions, especially on Friday and Saturday. Likely will
need another round of wind and dust advisories along with fire
weather warnings. Fire weather concerns are addressed in the fire
weather section below. This system will also bring a chance of
showers or thunderstorms to mainly the White Mountains Friday
afternoon into Saturday.

Highs today around normal then 3-6 degrees warmer Thursday before
cooling off a few degrees on Friday. Cooler Saturday with highs
running 6-9 degrees below normal. Colder airmass could result in
freezing temperatures Sunday morning in the usually cold spots east
and south of Tucson.

Dry with a warming trends Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 27/12Z.
SKC to SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL thru fcst pd. SFC wind less than
10 kts and vrbl in direction thru 26/18z then bcmg W/NW 10-22 kts
with gust to 30 kts after 26/18z. The strongest speeds will be E of
KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Not as windy today but still looking at gusty W/NW
winds this afternoon.

Somewhat stronger winds are expected Thursday afternoon with min RHs
in the 10-15% range leading to areas of elevated and local critical
Fire weather conditions.  Winds are expected to increase further
Friday as a system dives across the area however RH levels will be a
bit higher and marginal for critical fire weather conditions.

Otherwise, dry conditions will occur into Friday morning except for
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms near the White
Mountains this evening. There is a chance of showers across the
White Mountains Friday, then a chance of showers east of Tucson
Friday night into Saturday. Dry conditions are expected Sunday into
early next week.





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