Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 151053
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
353 AM MST Fri Mar 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low over western Arizona will bring
unsettled weather to the area today into this weekend and possibly
into early next week. Today will be the best chance for valley
rain and mountain snow showers, although a chance will continue to
exist this weekend. Temperatures will be on the cool side for
mid-March through this weekend before warming up next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning clearly showed a
cut-off upper low SSE of San Diego with cloud cover increasing
from Tucson west. This upper low will move into Yuma county late
this morning then move north. Initial band of showers will be
developing through 7 am from eastern Pinal county south to Santa
Cruz county. This band will expand east through noon. A second
area of showers will develop west of Tucson late this morning and
expand east across southeast Arizona. Heavier showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be associated with the second band. Breezy to
locally windy today with strongest winds south and east of Tucson
and in the mountain. Some of the stronger showers later today may
produce gusts up to 45 mph. Snow amounts will be tricky today
especially with the chance of thunder snow. Ended up adding the
Catalina and Pinaleno mountains to the winter weather advisory
with start time delayed until 7 am this morning. Snow amounts
above 7500 feet today of 4-8 inches for the Catalina/Pinalenos
and 6-12 inches for the White mountains. Valley QPF totals will be
highly variable with localized today up to 1".

Activity to end this evening/late tonight as the closed low moves
into NW AZ and drier air moves in. This closed low will meander
across Arizona this weekend into early next week keeping a slight
chance of showers in the forecast. Temperatures will be on the
cool side/below normal today through Sunday then gradually warm up
next week as the upper low fills/weakens and finally leaves the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
BKN cloud layers 7k-10k ft MSL much of the valid pd. ISOLD -SHRA
thru 15/14Z mainly west of KTUS then becoming SCT across forecast
area. ISOLD TS btwn 15/17z and 16/02z. Mtns OBSCD in clouds and
-SHRA/SHSN at times. SFC Winds 10 kts or less increasing To SLY
15-25 kts with gusts to 40 kts after 15/15Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds return today, especially south and east
of Tucson and get an earlier start. Scattered showers are expected
to develop this morning, mainly from Tucson west then expand east
as the day progresses. Snow is expected above 7,500 feet with
accumulations up to 8 inches in the Sky Islands and up to 12
inches in the White Mountains. Cool conditions will continue
through the weekend with a chance of showers at times east of
Tucson into Monday, possibly lingering into Tuesday over the White
Mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
  evening for AZZ511-514.

 Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 AM MST
  Saturday for AZZ510.

&&

$$

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