Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 151056
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AZ MAINLY FROM MID-
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
WLY/NWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
AS SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL CONTINUE WED AS RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS
WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST SHOULD
OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUE
WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

15/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR MORNING. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF WERE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THUR NIGHT-FRI. THUS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THUR NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI. HAVE
NOTED THAT THESE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE DECREASED QPF/S ACROSS THE
AREA FRI-SAT VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA POP FIELDS.

THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN
MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DRY
MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS SAT NIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT NIGHT-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS
MON...THEN EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT DAILY TEMP CHANGES WED-THUR. COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI...THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL BRING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME WLY/NWLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

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