Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 290040
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
640 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THE 500-
300 MB AND 700-500 MB QG FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA. BASED ON
CONGLOMERATION OF ALL THE MODELS AND A DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...INCLUDING COORDINATION WITH WPC SNOWFALL FORECAST...WE
HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING CHEYENNE AND FOR BANNER AND KIMBALL COUNTIES OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC LIFT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT LIFT AND
UPSLOPE LIFT.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WHERE
WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SCOTTS BLUFF...MORRILL AND
CHEYENNE COUNTIES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM CONSIDERING FALLING PRECIPITATION AND
DENSE CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL LIKELY END OR DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE...THUS ENDING THEIR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
AND A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE LIFTED BY PROGGED UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW BASICALLY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WITH
MOIST LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PROGGED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA...THUS CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER STORM
WATCH. WPC FORECASTING TOTALS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
INTERSTATE 80 SUMMIT AND MUCH OF LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE
WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON VARIOUS MODEL PREDICTIONS AND THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

SNOW CONTINUING SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA. WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WRAP AROUND BEHIND
THE LOW. HEAVIEST SNOW AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE PANHANDLE.

KEEP EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY...SO
THE THREAT FOR MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES...THOUGH QPF ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD.

GET A REPRIEVE MONDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. REALLY
DO NOT GET BACK INTO DRY WESTERLY FLOW UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES AND POPS  THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS MANY OF THE TERMINALS EARLIER THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ALL AREA TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED
OBSERVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DURING A PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD LIMITING VISIBILITY IMPACTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

NO CONCERNS BASED ON COOL AND WET WEATHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
     FOR WYZ117>119.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ106>108.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ114-116.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ112.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT
     SATURDAY FOR WYZ110-115.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY
     FOR NEZ020-054.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ019-021-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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