Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 241400
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
800 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Based on latest radar trends, went ahead and upped PoPs for this
morning across our southeastern zones out into the southern
nebraska Panhandle. Though amounts are not that high, we do have
quite an extensive area of light rain over this area. Last METAR
from KCYS had hourly rainfall at .03 inches. Updates have been
sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Satellite showing plenty of mid and high clouds across the CWA on
the northern part of an elongated upper low over Colorado. Some
light showers moving north towards the CWA but have been dissipating
as they do so.

Cooler conditions will be over the CWA over the next few days as
an upper low over far southern Canada moves east slowly and a
couple pushes of cooler air sink south down the high plains into
the northern and central Great Plains. Upslope flow today should
allow for the formation of scattered showers and a few storms across
southeast Wyoming by late this afternoon...continuing into this
evening before dissipating. Mainly dry overnight into Thursday
morning before redeveloping convection once again during the day
across southeast WY. This activity should persist Thursday night
through Friday as a larger scale upper trough digs across the
northern and central Rockys with weak impulses moving across the
region ahead of it. A few stronger storms possible Friday
afternoon over the NE panhandle in the presence of a weak surface
trough and CAPES near 1000 J/KG.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Shower/tstorm activity will end Friday night with the passage of
the mid/upper level trough. The upper level jet will be confined
near the US-Canadian border this weekend through early next week
as a broad ridge encompasses the southern half of the CONUS. Model
differences appear late in the period with the ECMWF digging a
trough from British Columbia to northern California, while the GFS
holds the trough offshore of British Columbia. Other than a few
isolated afternoon showers or tstorms over the higher peaks of the
Snowy and Sierra Madres, the CWA can expect dry and warm weather
Saturday through Tuesday with highs in the 70s/80s. West-southwest
winds will be breezy at times along/west of the Laramie Range each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Stalled front near the Wyoming-Colorado border and a passing upper
level disturbance will trigger isolated to scattered convection
this afternoon and early evening. The terminals with the highest
probability of impact from convection will be Laramie and Cheyenne,
with VCTS between 20Z and 02Z. MVFR visibility in heavier showers
with gusty outflow winds will be possible. Surface winds will be
easterly, with gusts to 25 kt across southeast Wyoming this afternoon.
Winds will diminish this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Fire weather concerns will be lower over the next few days with
cooler temperatures and generally light winds. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected today through Friday...most numerous
over the plains.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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