406
FXUS64 KLZK 270524
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Main concern during this forecast period is the severe weather
potential during the first period.

Recent objective analyses indicate an explosive atmospheric
condition prevailing across the forecast area.  Values derived from
18z sounding are supportive of all thunderstorm hazards.

However, a substantial cap exists.  Overall forcing of the
atmospheric column currently is weak.  Recent CAM runs suggest
forcing along cold front, now approaching from eastern Kansas and
central Oklahoma, will be required to initiate convection. In this
scenario, the severe weather potential would exit between 00z and
08z in the LZK forecast warning area. A subjectively analyzed
boundary, likely connectively enhanced from earlier activity in
northeast sections of the forecast area, will be a particularly
dangerous area for severe potential late this afternoon and
evening,

Drier conditions are expected for the rest of the period, although
above normal afternoon temperatures will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The period will begin with surface high pressure building into the
area, resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures. Northerly winds
will gradually become NE and then E as the high slides off to the
east, and eventually a return flow will develop in the Fri-
Sat time frame, bringing warm and moist air back to the state.

In the meantime, several upper level disturbances will ripple thru
the northwesterly flow aloft, bringing chances for precipitation. I
anticipate that a number of nocturnal MCS`s may affect the area,
moving NW-SE thru the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The cold front continues to move through central Arkansas.
Thunderstorms are located just ahead of the front. Expect these
storms to move south and east as the front pushes through. Storms
should be out of southeast Arkansas between 9Z and 10Z. High
pressure and drier air will build into the state behind the front.
Monday will be dry during the day. MVFR conditions are expected
south early...then VFR conditions are anticipated for the rest of
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  64  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
Camden AR         92  65  89  65 /   0  10  10  20
Harrison AR       83  60  83  58 /   0   0  10  10
Hot Springs AR    92  65  89  64 /   0   0  10  30
Little Rock   AR  91  67  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     93  67  90  67 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      91  63  88  63 /   0   0  20  30
Mountain Home AR  85  60  85  58 /   0   0  10  10
Newport AR        87  65  88  64 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  66  90  66 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   89  62  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Searcy AR         89  63  88  63 /   0   0  10  20
Stuttgart AR      90  67  89  67 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...51