Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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362
FXUS64 KLZK 212346 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
646 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expecting isolated to scattered TSRA to continue through around
22/04Z before dwindling, therefore kept VCTS mention through that
time for central/southern terminals. Most sites should experience
some MVFR BR overnight with IFR or worse possible central and
south and gradual vis/cig improvement through mid-morning
Tuesday. TSRA coverage may be more sparse tomorrow, but did
include VCTS in prevailing groups after 22/18Z.

Cooper

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 317 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
Pattern remains nearly stagnant with systems aloft from the
southern Plains interacting with weak boundaries sagging into
the region from the north. The result will be isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday,
mainly during the heat of the afternoon and early evening.
Precipitation will become more spotty overnight.

While a storm or two could become severe the next couple
of days, the main concern will be heavy to excessive rain.
Where storms develop, they will not move much. Some spots could
pick up a quick two to three inches of rain. By the way, this
pattern is more reminiscent of summer, and is happening a month
too soon.

Temperatures through the period will be above average.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday

High pressure and weak flow aloft will be present to start the long
term portion of the forecast, providing a continuation of warm
temperatures and slight rainfall chances.

However, by this weekend, the forecast gets a little more
interesting as a tropical disturbance approaches the Gulf Coast. A
weak frontal boundary is also expected to approach the area this
weekend, which will add even more excitement to the situation as the
two interact.

Unfortunately, models are not in agreement regarding the tropical
disturbance, although guidance solutions have trended closer
together with the 12z run. The most notable differences between the
ECMWF and GFS solutions, are the placement and intensity of the
system moving up from the Gulf. Needless to say, there is quite a
bit of uncertainty regarding rainfall chances and amounts.
Therefore, for this forecast have trended towards the GFS solution,
with a little ECMWF mixed in.

In the end, expect rain chances to continue through Monday and
temperatures to be warm. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s
and 90s, with lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...COOPER



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