Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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681 FXUS63 KGLD 070936 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 336 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in Kansas. Relative humidity values in the teens and winds gusting above 25 MPH are expected. - The next chance for thunderstorms will be Thursday afternoon for the northern two thirds of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Visible satellite imagery shows storms continue to move to the east, further away from the area. Areas along and east of the Kansas/Colorado line are mostly sunny to sunny, with some cue developing over northeastern and eastern Colorado. Expect gusty westerly to southwesterly winds across the area for the rest of today, behind the Pacific front, diminishing this evening. Low relative humidity values (teens to 20s) will also be in place. Critical to near critical fire weather conditions remain through around sunset. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8PM MDT for Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, and Sherman, Wallace, Wichita, Greeley and Logan counties in northwestern Kansas. Dry conditions are expected overnight. A closed low will remain over the western portion of the Dakotas through the day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a broad, upper trough will extend west to east from the PACNW to Minnesota and south into the Tri-State area. A tight pressure gradient and westerly winds will make Tuesday another warm and windy day across the region. Near- critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected late Tuesday morning through early evening, particularly for the southern third of the area. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens in the afternoon, with winds gusting above 25 MPH. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Cheyenne County in Colorado, and Wallace, Wichita, Logan, and Greeley counties in Kansas. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid-60s in Colorado, to approaching 80 in the southern portions of the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 For the long term period, Thursday is forecast to be the coolest of the period in the wake of an upper trough axis that swung through the Plains. Highs are forecast to be in the 60`s with a mix of clouds and sunshine. There is also a chance for showers and storms (around 20-60%) as moisture advects into the area and the upper trough axis swings through. Severe weather is not expected with a lack of synoptic forcing and higher surface pressure across the area. For Friday and beyond, the pattern gets a little trickier with the trough axis swinging to the east while a portion of the trough separates and moves west as a small cutoff low. With it, a mix of upper ridging and split flow is forecast to occur which will generally keep temperatures near to above average. Precipitation chances will likely be on the lower side unless the cutoff low can generate a system as it pushes east. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Gusty west to southwest surface winds will continue through the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ027-028-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wekesser LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...024