Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
with some high thin cloud cover filtering thru the area. Temps are
currently ranging from the mid 30s thru the 40s w/ light southerly

For today...another well-above normal day for temps is on tap for
the entire region. Amplified H5 ridge is east of the region with
surface flow out of the SW ahead of an approaching shortwave/surface
low that will affect the area tonight into Friday.

Ahead of this system passage the main wx concern for today continues
to focus around the very dry conditions due to lack of moisture.
With high temps expected to range from the low 70s north to around
80f south...low RH readings will be pronounced...especially along
and south of Interstate 70. A SW to SE surface flow...gusting 30 to
40 mph by this afternoon is creating dangerous fire wx conditions.
With the latest model data in...have continued the Red Flag Warning
for this afternoon currently...but added in Thomas...Gove...Graham
and Sheridan counties.

For tonight as the surface low/shortwave work off the Front Range
and into the CWA...expecting light precipitation to develop. Based
on the latest model track of the surface low...highest pops will be
over northern zones. The upper support with the low does come off
the Front Range negatively tilted and does show some weak
instability along the CO/KS/NE borders. Have continued mention of a
slight chance for thunderstorms but limited it to around 3 hrs
around 00z-03z.

Going into Friday...the passage of the surface low allows for a
shift from SSE winds to more WNW thru the day from west to east.
Models showing strong gradient behind system so have kept increase
to 35 to 45 mph for much of the CWA. Those areas not seeing much if
any QPF from the system passage could see blowing dust develop.

Light precip continues to taper slowly from west to east and with
temps not cold enough to support snow have left out. Friday
afternoon will still see potential for low RH readings to work in
tandem with expected strong winds. For now have kept current Fire Wx
Watch intact for SW areas...and may need an upgrade later today.

Going into Friday night and into the first half of the
weekend...with the low having finally shifted eastward towards the
Mississippi Valley the region will see a brief cool down Friday
night as another H5 ridge shifts into the Central Plains. This
system will push eastward for Saturday allowing for SW upper flow to
returns providing another slight warmup. Clear and dry conditions
continue going into Saturday night.

For temps...cooler air behind the exiting systems will allow for
overnight lows to drop into the mid 20s giving way to lower and mid
60s for Saturday highs. With the region remaining in SW flow aloft
and southerly flow at the surface...Saturday night for the region
will see continued WAA with lows only in the lower and mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Shortwave ridging builds into the High Plains on Saturday, bringing
a slight warmup and dry weather. The ridge moves east of the region
by early Sunday, with southwest flow developing aloft as an upper
trough approaches the Rockies.

This next disturbance generates precipitation chances Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning, with the better chances Sunday
night when the main system moves across. Cooler air begins to filter
into the area, dropping temperatures to near or below freezing
Sunday night. This should result in a changeover from rain to snow
overnight, before switching back to rain mid morning Monday.
Guidance is having some trouble with the timing and placement of
this system, making confidence low at this time. Current forecast
calls for up to 1 inch of snow accumulation.

Gusty northwest winds return Monday on the backside of the low as it
travels east. Relative humidities look to remain above criteria, but
will continue to monitor for fire weather concerns. Things dry out
again for Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge develops over the

High temperatures are in the upper 50s and 60s during the weekend,
falling into the upper 40s and 50s on Monday. A warming trend
follows on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows are in the 20s and 30s
throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Conditions...VFR w/ scattered high clouds giving way to a broken
mid deck by 00z-03z Friday.

Precip/Wx....None at this time...but VCSH will probably go in on
next TAF issuance to cover the potential for shower development
which there is low confidence at this time due to expected surface
low track.

Winds........For KGLD SSW around 10kts thru 18z...becoming SE
around 10kts. By 00z Friday...SE 15-25kts. From 04z Friday onward
W 15-25kts. For KMCK ESE 5-10kts thru 21z...then ESE 15-25kts. By
03z Friday...ENE 15-25kts.

LLWS(Low Level Wind Shear)...For KGLD 06z-10z 180@45kts.


Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for several counties across the
forecast area.

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for southwestern portions
of the area Friday. In the watch area northwest winds gusting to
45 mph will combine with relative humidity values near 15 percent.


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 7 PM MDT /8
     PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for COZ253-254.



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