Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
145 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

Tonight...general thinking is for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to be in progress across the western 2/3 of the
area by the beginning of the period associated with a weather
disturbance moving in from the southwest. Could have a severe hail
and wind threat from the stronger storms as they move east and
northeast. After midnight activity should be out of the area. Low
temperatures look to range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern
Colorado to the upper 50s to around 60 east of the CO/KS border.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...another in a series of weather disturbances
moves across much of the area from the southwest supporting at least
a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. High
temperatures in the low to mid 80s in far eastern Colorado, mid 80s
to near 90 east of the CO/KS border. South winds increase during the
morning and early afternoon with 20 to 30 mph sustained speeds with
higher gusts. During the evening south winds of 10 to 20 mph
continue. Low temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far
eastern Colorado to the low 60s east of the border.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...will have low chances for afternoon and
overnight thunderstorms again. Daytime winds breezy to perhaps windy
from the south, south-southeast. A slight decrease overnight. High
temperatures again in the mid 80s to near 90. Low temperatures
range from the low to upper 50s in far eastern Colorado to the low
to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

Upper ridging is anticipated to move over the High Plains on Friday
as an upper low sets up on top of the west coast. The ridge persists
through the weekend, slowly progressing east ahead of the low. Most
of this timeframe will be dry for the region, but storms cannot be
ruled out at this time on any given day due to the pattern.

The upper low gradually travels eastward from the west coast to near
Utah by Monday. This next system generates shower and thunderstorm
chances for the region Sunday night, and especially on Monday.
Monday has the best coverage and chances for precipitation during
the extended period, but will need to wait to see how guidance
resolves this disturbance before putting too much stock into it.

It appears a Pacific cold front moves into the region Friday night,
but the airmass behind it will not be much cooler, with highs in the
80s to low 90s throughout the extended. Low temperatures will be in
the 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main impact will be breezy
winds beginning mid morning and lasting as late as 1z. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur in the afternoon/early evening, but
confidence too low to place a mention in the TAF.




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