Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

An upper level low centered invof southern CA/NV this afternoon
will track over the 4-Corners region tonight and progress slowly
eastward across the Rockies into the Central/Southern Plains Fri-
Sat night. 12Z guidance is in reasonable agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern, however, uncertainty persists with regard to
the precise evolution of the upper low as it traverses the Great
Basin/Rockies and the subsequent evolution of a lee cyclone in
eastern CO. Although confidence is relatively high that the Tri-
State area will receive much needed rain, further detail (e.g. how
much, which areas receive the most) remains difficult to determine.
In general, expect a quarter to half inch of rain, most of which
will fall Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. With little
in the way of cold advection on the W/NW periphery of this system,
p-type issues are not anticipated. A brief rate-driven changeover
to snow cannot be ruled out in northeast CO if heavy showers
persist over a given area Friday night and Saturday morning,
however, even if this were to occur, no accum or impact would be
anticipated due to the isolated nature thereof and temperatures
expected to remain above freezing. An isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out (primarily in southwest KS), however,
deep convection is very unlikely. Expect a clearing trend late
Saturday into Saturday night as the upper low gradually progresses
E/ESE toward the lower MS river valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Not much has changed since last nights write up.  The overall
pattern in the extended period shows ridging building over the
region Monday; producing predominantly northwest flow alfot and dry
conditions.  Tuesday, an upper level short wave troughs and a
surface cold front makes their way across the High Plains.  This
system looks to produce a chance of precip and winds in the 15-25
mph range. Rest of the week, a ridge rebuilds over the region and
produce mostly dry conditions for the area.

At the end of the period, the pattern has another upper level trough
trying to move into the region.  Unlike last night`s run, the ridge
looks to block it.  So this is the next system we will keep an eye


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1221 AM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

GLD and MCK will both start out VFR, but will transition to MVFR
as light rain showers and lower clouds develop and spread across
the region between 13-17Z. Conditions will continue to lower to
IFR across the region with GLD becoming IFR after 17Z and MCK
becoming IFR by 23Z Friday afternoon. Additionally, MCK may see
LIFR conditions after 00Z with more easterly winds providing for
good upslope conditions across the high plains.




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