Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221650

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The primary short term forecast concerns are the anticipated
elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon
along with elevated fire weather conditions that return on
Saturday afternoon across portions of far eastern Colorado and
west central Kansas.

An upper ridge moves across the high plains today and over the
eastern plains on Friday as a short wave trough pushes through
the central Rockies and moves east of the forecast area by Friday
night. Daytime highs will continue to warm today and Friday as the
ridge moves across the region and a surface low deepens over the
Colorado and Kansas border region by mid day Friday ahead of the
upper short wave trough. This will bring a dry and warm near
surface flow with gusty generally westerly winds ahead of the low
during the day of Friday. These dry and breezy conditions on
Friday are expected to produce elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across the southwest corner of the forecast area during
the afternoon. A fire weather watch has remains in effect for that
area between 18z-00Z Friday afternoon.

As the upper short wave and surface low center continue east
across Kansas, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the northern sections of the forecast area during the late
afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures are expected to move in
in the wake of the low on Saturday bringing the daytime highs
down from the 70s and lower 80s on Friday to the 60s and lower 70s
on Saturday.

Even with the cooler temperatures and winds that are not expected
to be as strong on Saturday, conditions will remain dry enough
with afternoon RH values less than 20 percent, for elevated fire
weather conditions to be present again over far eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Sunday and Monday: Troughing prevails across the western states on
Sunday and Monday with a nearly cut off H5 low influencing the
Plains region both days. Southwest flow aloft will continue while
surface winds shift in response to the development of a surface low
that will bring rain and thunderstorms to much of the CWA with a
chance of snow in the western half of the area. There will be around
500 J/Kg of MUCAPE available Monday afternoon/evening along a theta-
e boundary, giving us a focus for thunderstorm development. This
should bring another round of much needed precipitation to many

Tuesday and Wednesday: Cooler air moves in late Monday night with
light snow persisting into Tuesday morning, mainly for the western
half of the CWA. Rain is expected to continue through much of the
day on Tuesday, tapering off from south to north as the system moves
off to the east and northeast Tuesday night. Look for high
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday with slightly
warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Another shortwave is expected to
develop late Wednesday, possibly giving us another chance of light


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions through the period. Light and variable winds
will continue through about 23z before establishing a southeast
direction around 6kts by 00z. Winds increase toward 12kts from the
south in the 06z-10z timeframe under a mid level deck of clouds.
After 15z winds start to veer to the southwest then west-southwest
and increase in speed with sustained winds around 15kts with
higher gusts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through 13z winds winds generally
from the east or southeast direction under 10kts. Some stratus and
fog is possible in the 13z-17z timeframe and could produce mvfr or
ifr conditions with an east wind under 10kts. After 17z vfr
conditions expected with winds from the southeast near 10kts.


KS...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ027-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for COZ253-254.



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