


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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553 FXUS62 KFFC 131855 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered storms expected through this evening with the main threats being gusty winds (40-50mph) and locally heavy rainfall. - Heat advisory has been expanded northwestward tomorrow for heat indices from 105-108. Discussion: High pressure has built in over the area with current temps already in the mid 90s across central Georgia and a high in the mid to upper 90s expected. Moisture is still flowing into the area which in conjunction with the heat is allowing for storms to pop up around the area with west Georgia as the main focus. Most of these storms have been relatively short lived and are staying below severe criteria but cannot rule out gusty winds (40-50mph), frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with these storms. Higher than normal PWATs will contribute to the potential for precip loading and higher than normal rain rates over the area. Tomorrow should see another rinse and repeat forecast with the high pressure over our area with rain chances remaining mostly less than 20% across the area for one more day. For heat, heat indices are already reaching 105-108 across the heat advisory area with upper 90s to low 100s everywhere else. Overnight lows are only expected to reach into the mid to upper 70s, thus the decision was made to extend the current heat advisory until tomorrow night and then expand it northwestward to account for tomorrows heat indices. Tomorrow should see temps in the mid to upper 90s mainly south and east of the I-85 corridor with heat index values in the 105-109 range for this area. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Key Messages: - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. - Monitoring for potential tropical development in the Gulf. - Additional Heat Advisories will be possible through midweek. Discussion: A subtropical ridge will be in place over much of the Southeast through the long term period. At the start of the period, a low-/mid-level disturbance is progged to drift eastward over Florida and into the eastern/central Gulf. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing with a 20% chance of tropical development associated with this disturbance in the next 7 days. In addition to providing a source of lift, this disturbance will bring with it a slug of tropical moisture characterized by PWAT values as high as ~2.1 inches per ensemble guidance, regardless of any tropical development. This soupy environment will drive scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm development each day, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Mesoscale features like remnant cloud cover (and resulting differential heating boundaries) and outflow boundaries from earlier convection will largely govern where storm development is favored each day. Weak steering flow amid the ridge will lead to slow-moving/stationary and possibly back-building storms, which will pose localized torrential rainfall and flash flooding concerns. For now, WPC has Day 3 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) and Day 4 (Wednesday/Wednesday night) Marginal Risks for excessive rainfall across at least a portion of north and central Georgia, but these risk areas may be adjusted over the next couple of days to account for the latest trends in coverage of convection, rainfall amounts, and soil moisture from previous days of rainfall. The increasing moisture -- especially with the highest PWAT values likely to be across the southern two-thirds or so of the forecast area, closest to the disturbance in the Gulf -- will mean that heat index values will bear watching. Where temperatures reach the mid-/upper-90s in the afternoon and dew points are in the mid-70s is where heat index values will range from around 105 to 108 degrees. A caveat is that earlier-onset convection and/or cloud cover may prevent enough daytime heating to achieve said heat index values. Martin && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Cu field around 4kft is currently across much of the area and storms are beginning to build over western GA. There is only a slight chance for storms over ATL though through this evening. Then expecting skies to begin to clear out again before the cu field forms again tomorrow with a low chance for thunderstorms again. Winds from the NW at 7-10 kt with gusts up to 15kt are expected. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium on thunderstorm chances. High on all other elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 97 73 93 / 0 20 20 60 Atlanta 74 96 76 96 / 0 20 20 50 Blairsville 65 89 67 88 / 10 30 20 70 Cartersville 71 95 72 96 / 10 20 10 40 Columbus 74 98 76 97 / 0 20 20 40 Gainesville 73 95 73 93 / 0 20 20 60 Macon 74 97 75 95 / 10 20 20 50 Rome 70 93 72 95 / 10 20 10 40 Peachtree City 71 96 73 95 / 0 10 20 40 Vidalia 75 96 74 93 / 10 50 20 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ024-025-027- 035>037-047-048-058-079-089>092-102>104. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ038-039-049>051- 059>062-069>076-080>086-093>098-105>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...Hernandez