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660
FXUS62 KFFC 241938
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
238 PM EST Tue Nov 24 2020

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

No significant weather impacts expected through Wed night. Rain
chances will increase Wednesday and become widespread over
northwest 2/3rds of the CWA Wednesday night with total amounts
0.5-1.0 inches over the NW and lesser amounts elsewhere.

Pattern dominated by SW flow aloft with strong short wave over
Central Plains pushing ENE into the eastern midwest states thru
the period with trailing SW flow aloft continuing. This implies
warm/moist pattern with low diurnal ranges and ample cloud
coverage. Guidance blends look good here but PoPs Wed night may
be a bit low. Enough instability (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) for at
least isolated TSRA Wed night as well. If low level moisture
increases more than forecast, could see a brief supercell
structures given favorable WSW to SWly 500mb flow orientation and
directional shear profile. SPC marginal outlook looks reasonable
here. Will continue to monitor. Any heavy rain or flooding threat
will hold off until later.


SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

An active weather pattern will characterize the long-term period. At
the onset, a stationary front will be lingering across central
Georgia, providing the focus for scattered showers Thanksgiving
evening with a relative lull elsewhere. This lull will be short-
lived as the next wave in the southwesterly flow aloft will lead to
increasing rain chances by late Friday into Friday night. A few
embedded thunderstorms will be possible, primarily in central
Georgia during this time.

The most active period continues to appear to be the latter half of
the weekend. An amplifying upper trough over the Southern Plains
will lead a cutoff low eastward toward the region by Sunday. With
abundant moisture in place ahead of this system, rainfall coverage
will rapidly increase through the day Sunday into Sunday night.
There remains notable variability between model runs regarding the
eventual track and evolution of this late weekend/early week system,
though the potential for heavy rainfall and perhaps more organized
convection will be maximized during this time frame based on current
guidance. Current forecast rainfall totals approaching or exceeding
2" are possible during this time frame with exact amounts obviously
subject to change. Behind the surface front, much colder air will
quickly filter into the region early next week with at least some
potential for light wraparound wintry precip in the mountains Monday
night into Tuesday morning before moisture diminishes.

As mentioned, temperatures will remain above normal from late week
into the weekend before dropping well below normal early next
week.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR with only high clouds expected thru midnight with MVFR to
near-IFR stratus developing after 06Z Wed. Stratus will likely
stay in all day Wed with cigs going up to 2500ft 17-18Z then
remaining there thru at least Wed afternoon. Sfc winds will remain
E 6-10kts becoming SE after 16Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low-Medium confidence on IFR stratus likelihood tonight.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  64  57  72 /  20  30  50  50
Atlanta         47  67  59  71 /  10  30  60  50
Blairsville     41  57  51  66 /  20  60  80  60
Cartersville    46  67  56  71 /  10  50  70  50
Columbus        52  75  62  75 /   5  20  60  50
Gainesville     44  60  55  69 /  20  40  70  60
Macon           49  75  59  77 /  10  10  30  30
Rome            47  68  55  71 /  10  60  80  40
Peachtree City  46  70  59  72 /   5  30  60  50
Vidalia         53  76  60  78 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SNELSON