Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS66 KMTR 312018
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
Issued by National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
118 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather conditions with seasonable temperatures
are forecast for the remainder of the week. Rain chances and
cooler temperatures return by the upcoming weekend and will
potentially continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 12:55 PM PDT Tuesday...An upper low near
Vancouver Island continues to usher in moist air off the Pacific
Ocean resulting in a fair amount of clouds across the North Bay
but generally sunny weather to the south. As the upper low moves
inland into the northern Rockies weak high pressure will build in
off the Pacific, pushing the storm track farther north and drying
out the air mass through Friday afternoon. The drier air will
result in fewer clouds but cooler overnight temps, especially
inland valleys.

The building high over the Pacific will also cause increasing
northwest winds over the coastal waters and adjacent beaches but
much lighter winds inland.

Models continue to advertise a return to wetter weather this
weekend into early next week as two upper level low pressure
systems move through the area. Still some timing and strength
differences leading to lower than usual confidence in the details,
but rain chances are expected to increase across the North Bay as
early as Friday evening and into Monterey County by Saturday
morning. The ECMWF ensemble solutions are about 12 hours slower on
average. After a little break a second and likely stronger system
is expected Sunday, though here again there are significant model
differences in track and timing. However, confidence is on the
high side that most areas will at least see some rain from both
systems this weekend followed by a showery pattern Monday. Then
high confidence on a drier/warmer day Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:30 AM PDT Tuesday...Visible satellite shows
a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings across Bay Area terminals this
morning. Expect these ceilings to mix out this afternoon with
mostly clear skies for all sites this afternoon. For tonight,
expect mostly clear skies to continue. Onshore winds are expected
this afternoon and evening.

Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR ceilings will persist through 19-20Z,
then VFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon and tonight.
Westerly winds 10-15 knots will develop this afternoon and
continue through this evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Current low clouds should dissipate early
this afternoon with conditions similar to the terminal forecast.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are anticipated through
TAF period. West to northwest winds expected this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...as of 12:55 PM PDT Tuesday...Northwest winds will
increase this afternoon through Wednesday  night as a low pressure
system moves inland over the Pacific  Northwest. The waters off
the Big Sur coast will likely see some  gale-force winds and/or
gusts. Additionally, can`t rule out some  isolated gale-force
gusts for the outer waters north of Point  Pinos. Mixed swell will
persist with a moderate northwest swell  and a light southwesterly
swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MW
AVIATION: Rowe MARINE: Rowe

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.