Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
275 FXUS63 KMKX 131950 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Few showers this afternoon as a cold front passes through. - Cooler, less humid tomorrow and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday as much warmer temperatures build. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Tonight through Saturday: A cold front is moving through the area this afternoon. Widespread cloud cover ahead of this feature has greatly limited any potential for thunderstorms over southern Wisconsin, and any severe weather threat is expected to be confined to northern Illinois and points south. A few showers will remain possible through late afternoon/early evening, with skies clearing tonight as drier air builds into the area. A couple of nice days are ahead for Friday and Saturday, as high pressure moves through the area. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s both days, with lows in the 50s. A weak backdoor cold front/enhanced lake breeze is expected tomorrow afternoon or evening as the surface high moves far enough east to support northeasterly synoptic flow. Look for temps to quickly fall into the 60s near the lake as the push of northeasterly winds arrives. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: Rain chances will start to increase Saturday night as southerly flow develops and transports better moisture northward into the area, and a shortwave moves eastward from the Central Plains. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected later Saturday evening into Sunday morning as this feature moves through. A building ridge over the southeastern US will support a sustained flow of warm and moist air northward into the region from Sunday into at least the middle portion of next week. This will support highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with muggy overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. There will be low (20-30%) chances for precipitation during this time, but suspect that the majority of this will remain to our west and north, closer to a quasi-stationary frontal zone over Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR is expected through the next 24 hours, with mid and upper level clouds clearing late tonight. A few light showers will be possible this afternoon, but no visibility restrictions are expected. Winds will shift to a northwesterly direction this afternoon and evening with the passage of a front. Light north to northeast winds are expected tomorrow, with a push of stronger northeast flow off of Lake Michigan during the afternoon and evening for those sites near the lake. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Winds will continue to turn northwesterly as a cold front passes through the lake. Thunderstorms are expected at times this afternoon and evening over the southern quarter of the lake, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. Winds will be northerly on Friday behind departing low pressure and ahead of an approaching high. Winds will be lighter on Saturday, picking back up out of the south on Sunday as the high pushes east of the area. Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory levels at times early next week. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee