Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261114
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
514 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

AT 345 AM...TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MORNING WAS 31 BELOW ZERO AT
CRANE LAKE AND THE RAWS STATION 5 MILES EAST OF SEAGULL LAKE. IN
OUR NW WI AREA...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR WAS 23 BELOW ZERO
AT THE WIDOT OBSERVATION SITE NEAR FIFIELD. IT WAS 30 BELOW JUST
EAST OF OUR CWA NEAR WAKEFIELD MI. SKIES WERE GENERALLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE GOGEBIC RANGE...BUT PROBABLY JUST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. HAVE PULLED BACK A BIT ON
SKY COVER GRIDS...BUT SOME SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
BELOW ZERO. WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY START TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS TO FAVOR THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OVER THE POLAR JET STREAM. FOR THE NORTHLAND
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS DISTURBANCES MOVING UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND THE
STEADY STREAM OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL RETURN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY...WARMER AND BREEZY AT TIMES...BUT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH NORMAL HIGHS /UPPER 20S/ ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA TO APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
GENERALLY DRY EXCEPT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST FORCING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A SFC
TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LARGE
SPREAD ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HOW THIS PATTERN WILL DEVELOP...AND
OVERALL HAVE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GUIDANCE IS NOT
CONSISTENT ACROSS MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN...SO HAVE BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER...DO HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT
FOLLOWING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY REACHING AS COLD AS
10-20 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS TODAY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN
12KTS...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS.
INTRODUCED A SCATTERED 2-3KT MENTION AT MOST SITES DUE TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS FOR
SOME CLOUD STREETS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6 -11  14  -2 /   0   0   0   0
INL   4 -20  14  -7 /   0   0   0   0
BRD   8 -13  14  -3 /   0   0   0   0
HYR   8 -17  15  -6 /   0   0   0   0
ASX   8  -9  17   0 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM






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