000
FXUS63 KDLH 161749 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE W/SW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS BY FRI MORNING. E/NE
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E/SE FRI
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE DAY. COULD BE
SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR FROM WEAK CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY AROUND BRD DLH AND HYR FRI MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH PERIODS OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS REMAINS
ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. TODAY THANKFULLY SHOULD HAVE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN PAST DAYS...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
STILL BE LOW AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED OFF A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT WE HAVE BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RIGHT NOW OUR
FORECAST ONLY HAS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT I MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL TAFS SITES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HYR AND BRD TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE
FOUND...TO THE 30S ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLR SKIES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL /GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PUSHING THE COOLER MARINE AIR WELL INLAND. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70S TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOWEST RH READINGS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND ZONES WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE H85 RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT/RAIN
INTO THE BORDERLAND ZONES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS ALONG THE FAR NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE
PRECIP EVENT...BUT THEY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE BEGINNING MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE STARTING ON MONDAY
WITH THE CLOSED LOW SO THIS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CONTINUES
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS WITH RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING AND SHOULD
HELP WITH THE GREEN-UP AND CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR A WHILE.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  53  44  63 /  10  20  40  40
INL  42  68  47  65 /  10  10  50  50
BRD  48  66  55  74 /  20  50  50  40
HYR  44  65  52  72 /  20  40  30  30
ASX  37  60  46  65 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...TENTINGER