Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 151727 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO LONGER EXPECTING ANY RAIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA
FROM PINE COUNTY MN EWD. HAVE REMOVED THIS MENTION OF RAIN. LEFT
THE ISOLD SHOWER WORDING FOR THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
VORT MAX DRIFTS NEARBY. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE UPPER FLOW WAS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING DUE TO A SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THAT
AREA. AREA RADARS SHOW A FEW WEAK ECHOES MOVING EAST THAT MAY CLIP
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ANY PRECIP THERE WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES. THERE WAS A COUPLE WEAK ECHOES JUST NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD.
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THERE THROUGH THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. WE INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT AS WE DO EXPECT SOME
CU TO FORM LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE THINK IT WILL
THEN DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRIER AIR AND
WAA MOVING IN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND 60.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR.
FROST WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY PARTS
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLY THE ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE.
NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE TOO MUCH WIND TO GET WIDESPREAD FROST AND WE
WILL JUST MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND ISSUE AN SPS. WE WILL BE ISSUING
A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL HAVE
THE BEST COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT WINDS AT THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN UP AND BE
AROUND 20 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK EVENT...WE FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA FROM ONTARIO
LATE TUESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANY SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED...SO WE KEPT THE NORTHLAND DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
SIXTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY.  A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND EASTERN NW WI
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INT OT HE
REGION.  WARM AIR WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST INTO WESTERN MN BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE A INCREASING
CHANCE FOR PRECIP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS FROM SW TO W.  AN
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ENDING THE
PRECIP AND DOMINATE THE REGION INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NW TO NNW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING W TO WSW WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING.

THE RISK OF FOG/MIST TONIGHT LOOKS VERY LOW CONSIDERING HOW DRY
CONDITIONS ARE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING
WNW WINDS ALOFT OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 30 TO 35
KNOTS AROUND OR BELOW 2 KFT BY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...LEFT
OUT WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECAST...BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADD THIS AT A
LATER POINT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING WSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  40  66  43 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  40  66  40 /  10   0  10  20
BRD  58  41  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  58  35  66  42 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  59  37  67  44 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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