Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261902 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
102 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VERY NICE CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A NICE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME.  IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND...THAT IS SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT
GENERALLY FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS ON
EAST...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
ARE JUST WARM ENOUGH ALOFT THAT WE ARE GETTING A FEW REPORTS OF
SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS OF THE SNOW
BAND. AM ALSO EXPECTING SOME LOSS OF ICE ALOFT AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF AND WE MAY GET SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW FALLING DURING THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REPORTS AS THEY COME IN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAVE TO MAKE A QUICK DECISION TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
FOR NOW AM GOING TO SEND OUT SOME SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AS A
HEADS UP ON THE EXPECTED SLICK AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SOME WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION.  TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE IT IS A LITTLE TOO WARM ALOFT STILL AND DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.  WE MAY HAVE SOME CLEARING BUT HAVE LEFT
CLOUDS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD STREETS TO
DEVELOP.  WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE AGAIN TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE PARADE OF CANADIAN CLIPPERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT ONE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ONE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP
AS AN UPPER LEVEL S/WV MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN
HEIGHT FALLS AND THE FORMATION OF THE SFC LOW. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND
REMAIN SOUTH OF MN AND WI. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE GOOD LIFT NORTH
OF THE LOW...WITH STRONG QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH EXTRA
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX.  IN ADDITION...STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE
LIFT...MAINLY OVR FAR NRN MN. THIS LOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND A GOOD PORTION OF FRIDAY..UNTIL THE NEXT
S/WV AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE
ARE DIVERGENT RESULTS ON THIS ONE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A SFC LOW
UP THROUGH MN/WI FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT MORE
OF A NRN SYSTEM. KEPT A WIDESPREAD CHC PROBABILITIES FOR NOW.  ONCE
THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WE ARE GOING TO GO BACK INTO A
MUCH COLDER PERIOD. THE LONG-TERM MODELS SHOWING ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
STREAMING BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHERE THE ECMWF
PREDICTING 8H TEMPS WELL INTO THE -20SC AND EVEN -30C INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -SN OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SE
TONIGHT.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION FROM IFR/MVFR TO MORE
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING LOW...BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE WEAK HIGH MIGHT
HELP TO SCATTER/CLEAR OUT THE CLOUD COVER...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING PLENTY OF OVC/BKN LOW CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA
AND ONTARIO. WHILE THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  32  19  32 /  10   0   0  20
INL  16  32  18  32 /  10   0  10  50
BRD  23  35  22  35 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  19  32  19  34 /  20   0   0  10
ASX  21  33  18  34 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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