Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 192138
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
438 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Ridging now sliding off to the southeast has allowed southerly
return flow to develop over the area as a surface low develops out
over western Montana. We are mixing deeply enough that we have
gotten some gusty winds and very dry conditions across the
forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures have also gotten into
the upper 60s to low 70s over much of the area, with some mid 70s
as well. This pattern expected to continue through the next 24
hours, with Friday expected to be a little bit warmer and winds
slightly stronger as well. Lows have been dipping into the low to
mid 30s with very good radiational cooling conditions, but this is
not expected tonight with the tighter pressure gradient. Thus,
have kept min temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s similar to coolest
guidance. Friday should finally have enough moisture into the area
bring up our dewpoints somewhat. With a very weak shortwave
overhead there should be enough to produce some afternoon showers.
We may get some isolated thunder as well, though this would be
pretty isolated in nature, and have left out for now. High temps
to be very similar to today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

A massive central North American ridge will dominate the weather
for the Northland throughout the remainder of the work week and
most of the weekend. It will be a very summer-like weekend across
the entire region, with temperatures in the 70s for daytime highs,
and lows in the 40s for the most part. The presence of the ridge
will be rather short-lived, though, as return flow begins to push
in on Sunday Night. A lead shortwave trough pushing rapidly
eastward from the massive western states longwave trough will move
into the upper red river valley by 12z monday. This will bring a
chance of thunderstorms to the CWA on Sunday Night, with more
numerous thunderstorms expected on Monday and Monday Evening.
Dewpoints will be much higher across the Northland for the
remainder of the long term period, and it will remain rather
unsettled with no major defining features to focus thunderstorms.
The result will be generally smaller chances of showers and
thunderstorms after Monday Evening. High temperatures throughout
the period should generally be in the 70s, with overnight lows
ranging from the 40s to the lower 60s. It looks like this extended
dry pattern we have been in will be broken late in the weekend and
during at least the first part of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

It will be quiet across the Northland TAF sites throughout the
period, with mainly scattered to broken mid level clouds. There
could be a few spotty sprinkles or showers but we are not
expecting any visibility or ceiling restrictions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  70  46  72 /   0  10   0   0
INL  44  76  46  78 /  10  20   0   0
BRD  46  72  48  76 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  39  72  44  75 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  41  70  46  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP



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