Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 020154 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
854 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ATTEMPTS AT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR TO HAVE
FAILED WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE FROM NE SD INTO WRN MN THIS
EVENING AFTER A COUPLE OF BRIEF STORMS TRIED TO SUSTAIN OVER NE
SD. WHILE 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY..
THE LACK OF A FOCUSED LIFTING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CULPRIT AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE
OVERSPREADING THIS AREA AT THE MOMENT. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN FROM NE NEBRASKA INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA..AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS MODEST SFC-850 FGEN IN THE WCENT MN AREA..SO WE WILL
STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FRONTAL ZONE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE ALREADY
LOW CHANCES FOR SUSTAINED INITIATION IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO
DECREASE.

MEANWHILE..FOCUS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST
IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT S/W TROF THAT IS DRIVING THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF WINNIPEG TO JUST
NORTH OF MINOT ND AS OF 830 PM. SATELLITE/RADAR HAVE REVEALED
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUBBLE OVER SW MANITOBA FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS..WITH A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
NOTED BETWEEN BOTTINEAU ND AND BRANDON MB DURING THE PAST HOUR. IF
THIS ACTIVITY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND ORGANIZE..IT APPEARS TO BE IN
A FAIRLY IDEAL POSITION TO RIDE SEWD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEAR WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL INTERSECT
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
CENTRAL/NRN MN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ROOTED
IN AN ELEVATED LAYER..THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
GIVEN THE SUSTAINED FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING WAVE AND
PERSISTENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-2000 ELEVATED CAPE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORECAST HAS ALREADY BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ABOVE REASONING
WITH THE MAIN CHANGES BEING TO LOWER POPS SOUTH THIS EVE AND
RAISING THEM SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU MID MORNING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE AGAIN ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION UPSTREAM BECOMES CLEARER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KBRD TO KHYR AREAS
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING..BUT CHANCES OF SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT APPEAR QUITE LOW AND
WE HAVE CAUTIOUSLY REMOVED THE MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER
AT KBRD/KHYR FOR THIS EVENING. STILL..THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
THAT STORMS COULD INITIATE WITHIN LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC REGIME
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 01-05Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT ARRIVE AFTER 06-08Z..THIS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OUT
OF THE ND/MB/SK BORDER AREA WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE
CURRENTLY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT THE DULUTH TERMINALS APPEAR
TO BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08-15Z. THEREAFTER..WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT..AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18Z
SUNDAY AS SKIES CLEAR FROM THE WEST..ALLOWING DEEPER MIXING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  79  54  69 /  40  40   0  20
INL  54  73  48  65 /  60  40   0  20
BRD  59  81  54  75 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  58  81  50  71 /  30  40   0  20
ASX  59  80  53  70 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER



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