Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 111949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
249 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest this weekend
leading to seasonable temperatures and mainly sunny skies. Some
afternoon cu possible today and tomorrow with highs in the 70s. A
few showers/brief storms are possible over the Minnesota Arrowhead
Saturday afternoon, mainly across Cook county. Some patchy fog
possible tonight as lows fall into the 40s in some inland locations,
otherwise around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

A broad area of high pressure will gradually exit the Upper Midwest
Sunday into Monday leading to warmer temperatures. A mid-level
shortwave trough will track east across the northern Plains into the
mid/upper Mississippi River Valley Saturday night into Sunday,
resulting in broad lift over portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
This large-scale forcing from this mid-level shortwave trough
combined with a warm front lifting across the Great Plains will
result in scattered to widespread convection Saturday, lingering
into western Minnesota on Sunday. There is a chance some showers or
storms could impact central to east central Minnesota on Sunday, but
chances are low and any precip that does fall is expected to be
light. Large-scale subsidence builds in on Monday as a mid/upper
level longwave ridge approaches from the best, but given the cooler
air aloft and some mid-level moisture in place some clouds and
perhaps a few showers/storms are possible across the Minnesota
Arrowhead with the ECMWF depicting as much as 1000 j/kg MUCAPE.
However, given the weak wind field aloft any storms that develop
would be very short-lived.

Stronger southerly flow develops Tuesday into Wednesday advecting
moisture-rich Gulf air into the Upper Midwest. On Tuesday the
aforementioned mid-level ridge axis tracks across the Northland with
southerly flow resulting in highs approaching 80 and dew points
rising into the low 60s. Another mid-level shortwave trough
approaches the northern Plains from the west providing the large-
scale lift necessary for another, more widespread round of showers
and storms the Great Plains. As the mid-level trough lifts northeast
towards northwest Ontario mid-week there will be a chance for
widespread showers and storms across the Northland Tuesday night
through Thursday. At this time conditions do not appear to support
organized severe weather.

Temperatures near to slightly above normal in the 70s to near 80
throughout the long term forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening
today as high pressure, located over north-central North Dakota,
remains in control. Diurnal cumulus field has developed from KINL
south to KBRD and points east over KDLH and northwest Wisconsin.
Ceiling heights between 4 to 6 kft are expected this afternoon.
There is the potential for a shower to develop near the KBRD TAF
terminal this afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen, but the
latest high-resolution guidance keeps the bulk of the activity
south of KBRD, so confidence is higher that any showers that
develop should remain to the south and left any mention of VCSH
out of the TAF.

Some MVFR fog is possible overnight at the KBRD and KHIB TAF sites
as skies clear and winds become light. Expecting vsby reductions
down to around 4 SM.


DLH  51  77  55  75 /   0   0   0  10
INL  45  77  51  78 /   0  10   0  10
BRD  50  77  54  71 /   0   0  10  40
HYR  46  78  51  77 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  50  78  53  78 /   0   0   0  10




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