Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 242349
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WI AIDING IN
SLOSHING MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER INTO NORTHERN CWA... AND
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO GO WITH PT-MOCLDY SKIES REST OF THIS
EVENING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/N OF CID-MLI LINE. OVERNIGHT...
ANTICIPATE GRADUAL BREAKUP OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND INCREASINGLY
SUBSIDENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN... WHILE EASTERN AREAS
REMAINING IN MORE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY HOLD ONTO CLOUDS INTO TUESDAY.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR IMPACT OF CLOUDS ON MINS... BUT FOR NOW NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST LOWS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LAKE SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. THIS WAS PROVIDING A SUNNY
BUT WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH. 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY SUNSET DUE TO DECOUPLING
ALLOWING FOR A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
45 TO 50 RANGE.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...AND WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO
TODAY. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD VIA THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST.  LEADING UP TO THE CHANCE OF POPS THE WEATHER
WILL BE MILD AND VERY PLEASANT.  LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY DURING THE DAY.  THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES
IN THE SPECIFICS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING.  THE ECM...HAS
CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SFC LOW WHICH IS NOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA AND DROPS QPF
ACROSS THE AREA.  MODEL BLEND POPULATED WITH HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.  DECIDED THIS WAS OKAY AND LEFT IT AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ROTATING AROUND GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE
AND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HRS WITH SCT TO BKN/OVC
CONDITIONS...MAINLY ALONG/N OF CID-MLI WITH VFR BASES 3500-5000FT AGL.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH AT OR BELOW 10 KTS WITH SUNSET THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE


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