Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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845
FXUS63 KDVN 201709
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1109 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

...18z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Early this morning a midlevel NW flow ushered in high level
clouds. This flow is forecast to become more zonal through the
short term period. At the surface, southwest flow lead to the
return of warmer and slightly more humid air across the area. This
flow and warmer temperatures will be the primary weather concerns
through the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Overall quiet weather pattern with gusty winds and warm
temperatures being the hallmark of today. Clouds early this
morning should thin as WAA brings H85 temps of 7 to 9C this
afternoon across the area. With the increase of baroclinicity,
winds will pick up as well. This should promote temperatures
into the 50s. MOS guidance appears to be the warmest of all
guidance. Most of the guidance falls into the low to mid 50s
across the area. If we mix deep enough, around H85 temps will be
too low currently and need to be increased. Confidence is low in
this occurring. Once the sun sets, winds should slacken. A dry
cold front is expected to approach the area by 12z Tuesday.
Overnight lows should be warmer than this mornings.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

The highlights of the long term forecast period are mainly dry
weather and variable temperatures.

Expect strong cold air advection Tuesday, with a northwest wind
gusting around 35 mph and falling afternoon temperatures into the
30s. The surface ridge will move through the forecast area Wednesday
with highs only in the 30s.

Late week, look for a return to southwest surface winds with highs
warming into the 50s again by Friday. There are low precipitation
chances mainly Friday night associated with the next fropa, which
will cool off temperatures over the weekend. By Sunday, highs will
again be in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF cycle. Gusty SW
winds 15-25+ kts will diminish later tonight as a cold front
approaches. The front will pass through the terminals 08z-12z
switching winds to NW and turning gusty yet again at 15-25+ kts by
mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...McClure



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