Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 111754
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1254 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

COLD AIR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS OF 2
AM...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS THE MIDWEST SOUTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

TODAY SHOULD SEE CLOUDS VERY VERY GRADUALLY THIN AND SCATTER OUT
DURING THE DAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY THIS EVENING BY MORE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE A TOP DOWN SATURATION BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS...THUS IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT DURING THE SATURATION PROCESS. UNDER CLOUDS
TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED FROM PAST DAYS...IN FACT THE
NORTH HALF MAY NOT REACH 60...WITH ONLY LOWER 60S SOUTH.
TONIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP MODERATE LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO
LOW. MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE REACHED BY LATE EVENING...AND HELD
NEAR THAT LEVEL THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE CLOUDS.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/RAIN WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES TO
UNSEASONABLY COOL READINGS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM
15 TO AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT THE GROUND WILL BE WARM FROM THE
RAIN. THUS THE CLEARING BECOMES EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AS TO HOW COLD
IT WILL GET BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE WAPSI VALLEY COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS MOVES THE HIGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
KEEPING THE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING BUT BRING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME MODELS KEEP THE
AREA DRY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS BRING THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

SOME SUBSIDENCE EROSION INTO MVFR CLOUD DECK...WITH DIURNAL
LIFTING OVER 3K FT AGL POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVEN PERIODS OF SCATTERING OUT FOR AWHILE AT CID AND DBQ
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOW VFR TO MVFR DECK TO SEEP BACK ACRS THE
TAF SITES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF NEXT UPPER TROF DIGGING ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY INDUCE AN OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN EVENT THAT WILL GET
INTO THE VCNTY OF CID BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING...AND DBQ/MLI BY MID
FRI MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. BRL PROBABLY DRY THROUGH
NOON FRI...BUT STILL A EXPERIENCING A LOWERING DECK TO MVFR. NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 6-12KTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI
MORNING.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08/ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12





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