Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 170543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1243 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016


Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

It is the middle of October yet temperatures feel like late
summer. Most locations across E Iowa/NW Illinois/and NE Missouri
were in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Aside from temps, SE winds have
been light into this afternoon and sky cover has decreased.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Tonight...Low pressure across the Dakotas and sfc pressure
gradient to the SE will maintain steady S-SE winds over E Iowa/NW
Illinois. Temps and dewpoints in the 60s will set up a mild and
humid night. Have slight POPs north of highway 30 for what I`m
thinking would be brief showers, possibly an isolated storm as
mid-level wave quickly crosses through Iowa/Minnesota. Could also
see areas of brief patchy drizzle across the CWA into early Monday

Monday...Near record highs possible. Upper 70s to upper 80s from
north to south through the forecast area. 850mb low progged to
track from Nebraska into Minnesota. On the SE flank of the low,
the height gradient becomes very tight which causes SW 850mb winds
to increase from 30 kts early in the day to 50+ kts by the
evening. An elevated-mixed layer, originating over the plains of
SE Colorado and SW Kansas, will be advected northeastward by the
impressive low-level jet causing local 850mb temps to reach 18-20
C (2-2.5 standard deviations above normal).

Winds: Juxtaposition of a strong low-level jet in a dry/clear
atmosphere and area of low pressure is usually indicative of
efficient boundary layer mixing and gusty winds. Current forecast
is for SW gusts of 30-35 mph. There is potential for higher gusts
near or above 40 mph and lower relative humidity (if dewpoints mix
down into the 50s).

Elevated Fire Weather Risk: If wildfires were to ignite in crop
fields, they would spread quickly given the strong winds. Highest
risk at this time is south of highway 30.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

...Well above normal temperatures for first part of the week with
near normal temperatures before weeks end...

Tuesday...Skies will be mainly dry with temperatures continuing to be
well above normal(10+ degrees). Daytime highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid 50s across northern parts
of the forecast area and low 60s across the south.

Wednesday...12Z Sunday runs of GFS/Canadian models prog a large
upper level trough to move over the central CONUS with surface low
pressure moving across southern Missouri towards the Ohio Valley. If
the track of the low remains consistent most, if not all, of the
rain associated with this system will miss the region to the
southeast. However if this track is a bit further northwest a few
light showers could occur along and south of Interstate 80.

Thursday and Friday...Cold air advection will occur through Friday
as high pressure builds over the upper midwest from out of Canada.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 50s to around 60.
On Friday, high temperatures will only be in the low to mid 50s.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to around 40 so the potential
for frost/freeze exists.

Saturday and Sunday...Long term models prog temperatutres will begin
to warm again and will likely be above normal by next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Generally VFR conditions and fair with possible periods of MVFR in
intervals clouds and light fog late overnight into early Monday AM.
Very warm air with south to southeast winds to 5 to 15 MPH becoming
south to southwesterly at 15 to 30 MPH by late Monday morning, then
diminishing to 10 to 20 MPH after sunset.





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