Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 081133
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
533 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

At 2 AM CST...cold high pressure is moving southeast of the area with
clear skies and temperatures in the teens with light southwest winds.
High clouds from the north will arrive next 3 to 6 hours bringing
partly skies. Disturbance in James Bay to slide south and brush northeast
sections tonight. Northwest flow with chance of very light snow and/or
flurries to continue into early next week with mostly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average. Main
issue is any light snow accumulations tonight. This is marginal
with amounts better known by mid to late afternoon. General forcing
and moisture levels supports a dusting northeast 1/2 up to possibly
near a half to locally two thirds of an inch in northwest Illinois.

Today...partly cloudy with slightly warmer temperatures with highs
in the lower 30s north to upper 30s south. Southwesterly winds of
5 to 15 mph.

Tonight...cloudy northeast to mostly cloudy southwest with flurries
and period or two of light snow. Overall forcing tools suggest any
measurable amounts of a tenth of an inch or more northeast of a
Independence to Clinton Iowa line and east to Prophetstown
Illinois. Lows should be warmer than tonight in the upper teens
north to lower 20s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Cold air moving in behind the departing system on Saturday should
help maintain or develop clouds during the morning hours.
Internally, the WRF suggests a weak potential for some flurries
while the GFS does not. One thing that does appear reasonable is the
windy conditions behind the departing system.

Quiet and dry conditions are then expected Saturday night through
Sunday night as high pressure moves through the area followed by the
approach of the next system.

Monday on...

The next system moves into the Great Lakes on Monday. The system
track is well to the north and east of the area as is the better
forcing. Thus most of the area should remain dry. The exception
would be north and east of a Manchester, IA to Sterling, IL line.
Here the model consensus has slight chance pops for snow that may
change over to a rain/snow mix before ending in the afternoon.
Temperatures Monday should average above normal. Accumulations would
be quite light if they occur.

Monday night through Tuesday night the model consensus has quiet,
cold, and dry conditions for the area. Temperatures are expected to
average below normal.

On Wednesday another storm system will move into the Great Lakes.
Like the Monday system, the track is well to the north and east of
the area as is the better forcing. The model consensus has slight
chance pops for snow generally north and east of a Dubuque, IA to
Sterling, IL line. Accumulations would be quite light if they occur.

Wednesday night and Thursday, the model consensus has quiet and dry
conditions for the area as another high pressure moves through the
Midwest. Temperatures should average a little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Generally VFR conditions to prevail under mostly fair skies. A
fast moving clipper system will affect DBQ terminal and possibly
CID/MLI terminals this evening with higher end MVFR conditions
with light snow. This is handled as TEMPO at DBQ and PROB30 at
CID/MLI terminals. Southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph will shift to
the northwest after 08/08Z and gusty at 10 to 20+ mph with cold
front and clearing skies for VFR conditions.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Nichols



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