Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 261739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A BIT AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WAS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE DVN CWA. WESTERN
GULF MOISTURE WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN TX BUT THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL WI TO CENTRAL IA AND THEN TO THE TX PANHANDLE. LOW
STRATUS/LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR FAR NW CWA WITH ONLY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES IF ANY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KFOD WITH ANOTHER NEAR KGAG.
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RAN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS AND EXTENDED
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SOME 40S ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY..IT WILL GO INTO
GENERATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT IS MORE INTERESTING. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM CLASSIC...WHAT IS
SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. FORCING MAXIMIZES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
BEGINS TO DECREASE TOWARD MORNING.

THUS LIGHT RAIN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD DEVELOP
WEST OF A GRINNELL IOWA TO LONE ROCK WISCONSIN LINE. IF FORCING IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THEN A CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW MIGHT OCCUR WEST OF A GRINNELL TO MANCHESTER LINE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. AT BEST...A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE LINGERING PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES WITH THE EXITING FRONT SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLDER SPELL.

26/00Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT EXIT AND THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR ON
SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ON GRASSY SURFACES IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IN
TERMS OF TRAVEL IMPACT. DEEP LAYER FORCING QUICKLY WANES AFTER
MIDDAY...AND WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORNING HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT
A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY AS THE
GEM/ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A WEAK WAVE THAT COULD BRING A BIT OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN HAZARD IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE VERY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...QUITE A DEPARTURE
FROM THE RECENT MILD WEATHER. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD
DAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A SLIGHT
REBOUND IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN CIGS/VIS BCMG IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS POST FRONTAL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...HAASE





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