Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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744
FXUS63 KDVN 281028
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The rain is rapidly shutting down as the better forcing moves into
Wisconsin. The forecast has been updated to reflect mainly dry
conditions this morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

06Z sfc data has several weak boundaries across eastern Iowa with
weak lows over eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa. Dew points were
in the 60s from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains with 50s over
the northern and central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Weak boundaries over the area will allow showers and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm to persist through sunrise. The better areal
coverage of precipitation should be west of the Mississippi and
north of I-80.

After sunrise, forcing becomes weaker across the area. Isolated to
scattered showers may persist for a while but the overall areal
coverage should decrease. The possibility does exist that dry
conditions may be seen across much of the area.

Starting around late morning and continuing through the afternoon a
new round of isolated to scattered convection will develop.

Internally the models are suggesting a band of thunderstorms will
develop from southern Iowa into Missouri around mid day as stronger
forcing moves northeast out of Kansas. This band of thunderstorms
should then move quickly to the northeast across eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois through early evening. Thunderstorms in this band
may be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds.

After sunset, isolated to scattered convection will slowly dissipate
with most if not all of the area dry after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

A very pleasant Sunday is in store as the slow moving system will
finally be moving away from the region. Deep mixing should help
lower dewpoints to the upper 50s to lower 60s, while allowing for
highs to return to the upper 70s north to lower 80s elsewhere.

The dry weather will be short lived, as zonal flow brings forcing
and warm advection to the area by Sunday night. In fact, while
probabilities appear low, this initial pattern Sunday night and
Monday, offer up a potential for a small elevated MCS. While rains
have been occurring the past few days, we have not seen a progressive
MCS, so it would be interesting to see if one can develop in the
less advertised early week system. In any case, chance to lower end
likely pops are warranted for showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday evening, as the complicated system of short waves and weak
pressure gradient systems spread over the region. Following
Wednesday, the upper trof should pass through the upper Midwest,
resulting in cold frontal passage. Dry weather is expected behind
this front, along with very pleasant conditions of highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s to begin June.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

A wave of widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue
to lift north through the terminals over the next several hours.
Initial VFR conditions should lower to MVFR as the air saturates.
Current thinking is the rain should exit northward by sunrise,
leaving several hours of MVFR ceilings Saturday morning, followed
by VFR conditions through the day with light southerly winds.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely from around
mid afternoon through early evening, which is handled with low
confidence prob30 wording for now, then vicinity wording Saturday
evening.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Sheets



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