Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 230527
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/
Vfr cigs of 4500 to 6500 feet agl will clear from the north
overnight. A few overnight wind gusts will top 20 knots but most of
the early period winds should be sustained around 10-13 knots along
I-35 and lighter out west. Increasing gusts are expected to return
around 15Z mainly for I-35 TAF sites. The winds should relax between
21 and 23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated to increase cloud cover across a good
portion of south central Texas through the remainder of the evening
hours. We are still seeing enough moisture across the region to
result in fairly thick cloud cover for areas south of a Del Rio to
Llano line. We should continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies
this evening, with cloud cover beginning to clear from northwest to
southeast overnight. We also see some light echoes on area radars
this evening. Given the weak echoes along with surface dew point
depressions in the 10-20 degree range, suspect none of this
precipitation is able to reach the ground. If anything, perhaps a
brief sprinkle. Finally, we have updated the hourly winds, dew points
and temperatures to better align with recent observations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

AVIATION...
The cold front has pushed off to the south and CIGs have lifted to
MVFR in Austin and San Antonio. Skies have cleared at DRT. All
terminals will remain VFR through this period. North winds at 10 to
15 kts will continue until after sunset and remain 5 to 10 kts
overnight. Winds will pick back up late morning Sunday to 10 to 15
kts, but should not be as strong as they were today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Temperatures remained steady in the upper 50s and 60s behind this
morning`s cold front as cold air advection and persistent low clouds
associated with isentropic ascent over the front has easily offset
any diurnal warming effects. Northerly winds are currently sustained
to 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, but these should gradually subside
into the evening hours. Clouds are breaking up a bit over Val Verde
and Edwards Counties, but most spots should remain overcast until
perhaps an hour or two before sunset. Isentropic descent moving into
the region will continue to clear skies this evening from northwest
to southeast to set up a clear and cool night. However, winds tonight
will remain around 10 mph to allow for enough mixing to keep low
temperatures up in the lower to mid 50s in the Coastal and Rio Grande
Plains and mid to upper 40s in the Hill Country. Winds will continue
to weaken tomorrow afternoon under sunny skies to set up a beautiful
spring day with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Winds will be
relatively calm Sunday night into Monday as surface high pressure
moves over the region, allowing for the coolest temperatures we may
see until next fall with mid to upper 40s over most of the region
except the Rio Grande Plains where lows may remain in the lower 50s.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Temperatures will rapidly warm up for the first half of the work week
as southerly flow returns by Monday morning on the west side of the
surface high and southwest flow persists aloft. A weak shortwave may
trigger some isolated showers and thunderstorms as it moves through
the mountains in Mexico, but moisture return should be too limited to
allow any to cross the border. Behind this shortwave, temperatures at
850 mb will warm up significantly and mix down dry adiabatically
with southwest flow aloft to support highs in the mid 90s on Tuesday
and near 100 degrees in Rio Grande Plains with upper 80s to mid 90s
elsewhere. A trough moving through Oklahoma and Kansas on Wednesday
may drag a weak surface feature through on Wednesday evening, but
for now have kept the forecast dry as deeper moisture will be fairly
limited. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible by the
end of next week as a deeper upper level trough digs into the Four
Corners region to help increase rain chances next weekend as another
cold front approaches the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              49  81  61  89  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  45  81  59  88  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     46  81  58  89  69 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            46  80  60  89  68 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  85  62  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        47  80  61  89  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             47  84  59  92  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        46  81  59  88  70 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   47  81  60  87  71 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       49  82  60  90  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           49  82  60  90  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire



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