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000
FXUS63 KGRB 110317
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1017 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Winds and waves have subsided on Lake Michigan, so the Small Craft
Advisory and Beach Hazard headlines have been allowed to expire.

UPDATE
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The severe thunderstorm threat has diminished, so the severe
thunderstorm watch for Winnebago, Calumet and Manitowoc counties
has been cancelled. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue to dissipate as instability wanes and upper forcing
shifts east.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Convection trends through the evening hours the primary issue.
The upper low continues to drop southeastward over the state this
afternoon while a cold front extended from around central
Wisconsin to southeast Iowa. Convection early this afternoon were
located with the upper low over the northwest half of Wisconsin
and along the cold front over Iowa. Best shear values and
instability were located over southern Wisconsin and just reaching
the far southern portion of the forecast area. As a result,
timing suggest we still have a short window of strong to severe
storms over east central Wisconsin this afternoon and early
evening until the front goes through. Showers and isolated storms
will continue to linger this evening as the upper low tracks
through.

Plenty of clouds and isolated showers expected for much of Friday
with the cyclonic flow. high pressure building into the state
from the west late in the day will begin to decrease clouds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A high pressure ridge begins building in over the northern
Midwest late in the weekend into next week. Some showers are
possible off and on through next week, but little or no
thunderstorm activity is expected. Temperatures will be at or
slightly above normal in general.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The main aviation concern will be widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings,
which will spread southeast across the area overnight. The low
ceilings will gradually rise Friday morning, with VFR conditions
expected in north central/central WI by late morning/midday, and
in northeast and east central WI by early to mid afternoon. A few
light showers may redevelop on Friday due to cyclonic northerly
flow and a weak upper level disturbance, but confidence is not
high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Clearing skies are anticipated during the late afternoon and
early evening as high preesure edges into the western Great
Lakes.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch