Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 211113
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
613 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Light precipitation will continue to exit east as a mid level PV
anomaly associated with a mid level trof moves through the western
Great Lakes. Precipitation will mainly be liquid across the
southern cwa, with some snow mixed in across north-central
Wisconsin. Given the paucity of moisture this is not expected to
amount to much. Once this feature tracks off to the east, dry air
evident on water vapor satellite imagery over the upper
Mississippi Valley will advect in. This will clear out the clouds
from west to east today as high pressure builds in across the
western Great Lakes region this afternoon. Highs today should
recover back into the 50s with a late April sun angle.

Overnight the aforementioned high will settle in, bringing clear
skies and light winds. This will give the region ideal radiating
conditions, allowing temperatures to tumble across the region.
Given these conditions will lower mins tonight, especially across
north-central Wisconsin, with expected lows ranging from the 20s
across north-central Wisconsin, with low to mid 30s across central
and east-central Wisconsin.

Dry weather is expected to continue into Saturday as return flow
and abundant sunshine allow highs to soar into the low 60s away
from Lake Michigan during the afternoon hours. Near the lake highs
should remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Mainly dry weather is expected across the forecast area through
Monday, though there is a slight chance for rain across northern
Wisconsin Sunday night and Monday in the vicinity of a stalled
cold front. Precipitation near the Michigan border could be in the
form of a wintry mix or snow late Sunday night. Rain chances will
spread across the entire area Monday night as a surface low
passes to the north of the state and a mid level short wave trough
moves across northern Wisconsin.

Models start to diverge Tuesday night, so have kept with the
blended model solution for the remainder of the forecast. There
is a chance for showers Tuesday night, mainly in the eastern and
southern parts of the area. Showers are possible again in central
and east central Wisconsin Wednesday and there is a chance for
showers across the entire area Wednesday night. Rain will mix with
and then change to snow mainly along and north of Highway 29 by
12Z Thursday. Precipitation will change back to all rain Thursday
morning and rain will become likely across much of the area by
Thursday evening.

High temperatures will be near or above normal Sunday through
Tuesday. After that, mainly cooler than normal highs will prevail
for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Despite breaks in the clouds this morning, sunrise should fill
back in the MVFR deck as rising motion creates cumulus clouds. The
deck will eventually erode to mostly clear skies by the afternoon
as drier air advects in from the west. Clear skies and VFR
conditions with light winds are expected tonight as high pressure
moves through the western Great Lakes.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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