Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 252004
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
SURFACE FEATURE IMPACTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY EVENTUALLY MORPHS INTO A CLOSED LOW AROUND NORTHERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO THE STATE IS BASICALLY
UNDER A LARGE RIDGE DURING THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST.

THERE WERE PLENTY OF CLOUDS EARLIER IN THE DAY BUT THEY MOSTLY
ERODED OR MOVED AWAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SETS THE
STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z NAM MOS AND 12Z
GFS MOS INDICATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT GRB/AUW/RHI DURING THE
NIGHT. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME FOG IN THE GRIDS FROM 06Z UNTIL
14Z...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM AROUND 08Z TO 12Z. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...BUT HOPEFULLY
IF IT DOES OCCUR THE EVENING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING
OUT BEFORE THE LATE NEWS.

DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TODAY SO LOWS TONIGHT...IN MOST
LOCATIONS...SHOULD NOT GET COLDER THAN THE UPPER 40S. ONCE
FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME STRATUS...BURNS OFF THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S AT LOCATIONS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
OVERALL VERY NICE FALL WEATHER IN STORE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A SHIFT TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LATER
NEXT WEEK.

PROGS CONTINUE TO DRIFT OR RETROGRADE A WEAK NEARLY CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS...PATCHES OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...WHILE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW.

SURFACE PATTERN STILL INDICATING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGGING
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THE GFS WAS THE OUTLIER INITIALLY WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THE
12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS ALSO
BRUSH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
STATE TOWARD MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TUESDAY TO END THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO SHOWER CHANCES RETURNS MID WEEK WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS DISPLACED WITH THE
APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GENERATED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THERE WERE A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WITH MVFR CIGS AT MIDDAY BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD NO
CIGS OR VFR CIGS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR AND SKIES TO
CLEAR. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD-COVER. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW SPOTS LIKE AIRPORTS. SOME STRATUS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE DENSE FOG. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
14Z FRIDAY WITH VFR CIGS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG





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