Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 240355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1055 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Convection looks like a good bet tonight, but there is significant
uncertainty as to whether there will be any severe storms. A warm
front across the far southern part of the forecast area will
produce at least scattered storms as it lifts northeast during the
late afternoon and early evening, but extensive high clouds and an
east southeast surface wind is holding temperatures down north of
the front and will probably limit severe potential.

An upper trough moving across Minnesota should produce a thunderstorm
complex that moves across the forecast area during the middle to
late evening hours. Mid level winds are strong, so strong or severe
wind gusts are possible if they can mix down. Heavy rain potential
is also there as precipitable water is forecasts to rise to 2.15"
this evening.

Clouds, winds and high dewpoints will hold temperatures about 15 degrees
above normal tonight. A weak cold front will move through Sunday by
midday. There is not much cool air behind but more of a lowering of
dewpoints, which will make it feel a bit cooler by Sunday evening.
Highs will still be about 10 degrees above usual.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Upper level flow continues generally WNW for much of period with
periodic waves moving across state and nearby surface boundary.
Overall, little change needed in the long term part of the

Quiet weather for the start of the work week as ridging builds in
for a respite from the convection. Mild temps and lower dew
points with sunshine Monday and first half of Tuesday.

Next shortwave trof approaches late Tuesday. The best chance for
convection appears to be Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
but proximity of front and additional ripples in upper flow
maintains precip chances through the end of the week.

Overall, temps typical of late July.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Showers continue to affect the TAF sites at times, and will
continue through much of the night and into Sunday morning as
additional upstream development tracks across the area. However
instability over northeast Wisconsin appears to be too low to
support much in the way of thunder, therefore will continue to
leave thunder out of the TAF sites with this issuance. A cold
front will bring dry weather later on Sunday with gusty westerly
surface winds.



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