Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 161146
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
646 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

OLD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER OHIO WAS STILL PRODUCING CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. MODEL LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND AWHILE BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD
END BY MIDDAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE.

SKIES MAY CLEAR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING BUT THE CLEARING SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP TO SOME DEGREE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS. BEST FORCING IS IN THE
NORTH SO THAT/S WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS. HIGHS MAY OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE FAR NORTH WHERE FRONT WILL GO BY EARLY IN
THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

TWO SYSTEMS OF INTEREST TO IMPACT NE WI DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPR RIDGING SET TO ARRIVE MID-WEEK. THE FIRST
SYSTEM TO ALREADY BE AFFECTING THE FCST AREA FRI NGT AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROF TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NGT/MON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROF PUSHES THRU THE AREA. TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROF TO ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI EVENING WITH SYNOPTICALLY-INDUCED
PCPN GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO LAKE EFFECT-INDUCED PCPN LATER FRI
NGT AS GUSTY NW WINDS BRING CAA INTO WI. HIGHEST POPS PLACED OVER
THE NE HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING TO
BE SITUATED. 8H TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO AROUND -4C OVER WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT AND AS SFC TEMPS DROP THRU THE 30S OVER N-CNTRL
WI...LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OR EVEN BRIEFLY CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER VILAS CNTY. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION...JUST A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME! MIN
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 30S N-CNTRL...TO AROUND 40 DEGS
NEAR LAKE MI.

ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER NRN WI OR CLOUDS OVER ERN WI ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SAT AS A SFC RDG PUSHES INTO THE UPR MS
VALLEY AND ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO WI. BY SAT AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH N-NW WINDS DIMINISHING. DESPITE
THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE...THE AIR MASS ALOFT IS STILL QUITE COOL
WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 45-50 DEG RANGE NORTH...UPR 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGS SOUTH.

THIS SFC RDG AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS WI SAT EVENING AND RESIDE JUST TO
OUR EAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NIL WINDS WL BRING
NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO NE WI AND TEMPS WL
RESPOND BY DROPPING TO THE COLDEST VALUES IN THE EXTENDED FCST.
LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S OVER N-CNTRL WI...TO
THE LWR TO MID 30S NEAR LAKE MI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST
WHERE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIVING SE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A RETURN FLOW TO
ALREADY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS WI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY STILL BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH PCPN TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP. THE MDLS DO INDICATE SOME DECENT WAA MOVING INTO THE
REGION...THUS IT BECOMES A QUESTION OF SATURATION AND HOW FAR EAST
TO CARRY ANY POPS. HAVE BROUGHT INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE FCST...
BUT RELEGATED ANY POPS TO CNTRL WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
SATURATION TO BE REACHED FIRST ALONG WITH BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. THE ONSET OF WAA WL BE COUNTERED BY THE
COLD START TO THE DAY...THUS MAX TEMPS TO BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF WL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
NGT...BUT IS NOT AS STRONG AS ITS PREDECESSOR. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LIGHTER AND WINDS WL NOT BE AS GUSTY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. CHC
POPS WL BE NECESSARY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA WITH THE PCPN
FALLING AS ALL RAIN AS ENUF WARM AIR TO BE IN PLACE. PCPN CHCS
COULD LINGER INTO MON MORNING AS THE TRAILING CDFNT MAY STILL BE
MOVING THRU THE AREA. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN
OVER NRN WI AS NORTH WINDS BLOW OFF OF SUPERIOR. THE AIR MASS IS
NOT AS COLD AS FRI NGT...THEREFORE IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...IT
WOULD BE RAIN SHWRS ONLY.

BY MON NGT INTO TUE...THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TO BECOME
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH AN UPR TROF HITTING THE WEST COAST...A SHARP
UPR RDG OVER CNTRL NOAM AND A PRONOUNCED UPR TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS. NE WI TO REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPR RDG
THRU TUE WITH A LARGE SFC HI STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NEWD
INTO ONTARIO. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TUE OVER THE FCST
AREA WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

AS THE WRN CONUS UPR TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPR RDG GETS SHOVED EWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. MORE SUNSHINE FOR WED WITH SOUTH WINDS SENDING TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF
IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AND BE MAINLY MVFR OR VFR BY AFTERNOON.
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......RDM






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