Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 071943
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
342 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS REGION WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLIT PRECIPITATION CENTERS RELATED TO
TO TWO SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMA... WITH ONE BATCH IMPACTING NRN WI
AND NRN LWR MI AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER NRN MISSOURI THEN
SPREADING/EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD SE LWR MI AND NW OHIO.

DESPITE LESS THAN OPTIMAL TIMING OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER... MODELS STILL SHOW 1000-2000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
DEVELOPING 06Z-12Z TUESDAY AS HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS SPREAD BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WAVE. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WHERE SEVERE WEATHER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR WHERE THIS INSTABILITY IS PROGGED. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
35 TO 40 KNOTS IS PROGGED WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.

PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO PREDOMINATELY
DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY
PIVOTING/ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THAT MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND
DRY THURSDAY INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.  WARMER AIR...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME FRIDAY EVENING
AND MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND HOW SOON A
SHORT WAVE COMES THROUGH.  THE EURO PUSHES THIS THROUGH BY
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS BRINGS THE MAIN WAVE THROUGH HERE SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS HAD DECENT CONSISTENCY SO SIDED SOMEWHAT WITH
IT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

IT APPEARS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
SURFACE RIDGING MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY LINGERING MVFR WERE PRESENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL SKIES WILL CLEAR LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
VFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

MOVED UP THE TIMING ON WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING. FEEL THESE WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS I-96...WITH LITTLE TO NO
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THERE. THEY SHOULD START MOVING IN AFTER
02Z AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD
THEN EXIT THE AREA TOWARD 09Z.

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR AFTER THE STORMS DEPART
TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES WILL STAY MOSTLY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS RANGED FROM
2 TO 6 INCHES. THIS HAS LED TO ROAD WASHOUTS AND CLOSURES WITH A
FEW RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS. TRAVEL MAY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS IONIA...MONTCALM...AND GRATIOT
COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS STANDING WATER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO
ON AVERAGE. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY.

AS FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS...OUR MAIN CONCERN RESIDES WITH THE
PINE RIVER AT ALMA (JUST UNDER 5" OF RECORDED RAIN THERE). A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. RISES ON THE GRAND ARE EXPECTED WITH BANKFULL BEING
EXCEEDED AT IONIA. RISES ON THE MAPLE RIVER WILL ALSO SEND THE
RIVER ABOVE BANKFULL AT MAPLE RAPIDS. WE`LL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER AT EAGLE FOR READINGS NEAR BANKFULL. HIGH
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON THESE RIVERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...MEADE








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