Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 101450
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WITH UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY.  MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY FRIDAY BRINGING MORE SNOW.  HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THIS SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER.  IT WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN COLD...THEN WE SEE A SLIGHTLY WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO
COUNTY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

I WILL VERY SHORTLY PUT KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING SINCE WE HAVE HAD A REPORT OF 9 INCHES IN ALAMO IN
NORTHWEST KALAMAZOO COUNTY. RADAR DATA (STORM TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
FROM 88D) SHOWS THAT SNOW BAND EXTENDED FROM PORT SHELDON THROUGH
HOLLAND...TO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF ALLEGAN THROUGH ALAMO. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE SNOW BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY THE REST OF THE DAY.
BASED ON THAT...IT MAKES SENSE TO ADD THEM TO THE WARNING...SO I
WILL AND I WILL RUN THE WARNING TO MATCH THE OTHERS... 10 AM
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED HEB 10 2016

WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE HEADLINES.

INVERSION LEVELS DROP A BIT TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE MOVES
EAST. HOWEVER EVEN AT 7K FEET THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
HEALTHY LAKE EFFECT BANDS.  OVERALL EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE FLOW
REMAINS 330-335 THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  SO THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AND ALL OF VAN BUREN COUNTY.  SOME AREAS MAY
PICK AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF SNOW...AND LOCALLY MORE.  WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN A FACTOR...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING FOR MUCH OF
TODAY.  MEANWHILE INLAND AREAS WILL ONLY SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
WITH ACCUMS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

EXPECT THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE HEADLINES AND BIT EARLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

THE INVERSION LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4K FEET FOR A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING THE SNOW WILL COMPLETE END...BUT THE INTENSITY
WILL DROP OFF.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL PERK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER
MOVING IN.  HOWEVER THE INVERSION LEVELS SEEM TO ONLY BUMP UP A
BIT...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.  GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS
FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAKESHORE AND LESS THAN AN INCH INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PATTERN STARTS OUT QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN THIS TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HIT
-26C TO -27C AT 700AM SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO F. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONE OF A FAST ZONAL NATURE.
TIMING SHORTWAVE/S IN A ZONAL FLOW AT DAY 5 AND 6 IS A TOUGH CALL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA
THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS 30-
50 PCT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAK WITH THE ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE
DEVELOPED IN THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SIDING WITH THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. TUESDAY ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE OUT AT DAY 7 IN A ZONAL
REGIME. HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

AFTER A COLD WEEKEND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT. THE WAY THE BANDS WILL BE SITUATED IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST
FLOW...KLAN...KBTL AND KJXN WILL NOT BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH. THERE
WILL BE SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR AT THESE INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR.

THE BANDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KAZO THE MOST AS THE BAND SHIFTS IN
AND OUT OF THAT TAF SITE. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY THERE WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.

KMKG AND KGRR WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
BE VARYING MORE VFR TO MVFR.

A NORTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

WE HAVE ENDED THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVIOSRY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT AS
EXPECTED. REALISTICALLY...THE RATE AT WHICH IT IS FALLING MAY
ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED BY FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORY THEN SHIFTS TO
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ICE BUILD UP
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SEEMS TO MAKE IT
IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND SOME AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY ASSIST IN ICE FORMATION FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS...BECOMING
MORE OF A FOCUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RUNOFF. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STAY HUGGED ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING COUNTIES AND OTHER AREAS TYPICAL OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL JUST BE A DELAYED CONCERN IF ADDITIONAL
LIQUID MOISTURE IS RECEIVED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR NOW...THE
TOTALS OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY LOCALLY HIGH NEAR THE
LAKE WITH AREA WIDE AVERAGES STAYING RELATIVELY LOW WHEN
CONSIDERING THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THE EVENT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ037-043-056-
     064-071-072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ038-050.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ


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