Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 231559 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1059 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.. THERE IS
AN AREA OF STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST WI THAT IS ADVECTING
EASTWARD. THESE ARE DUE TO A POCKET OF HIGHER 925-850MB RH. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO KEEP MAX
TEMPS ON TRACK FOR THE MID 60S. LAKESHORE AREAS WILL STILL BE COOLER
TODAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

STUBBORN AREA OF MOSTLY VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHWEST WI IS SPREADING INTO
THE MADISON AREA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BECOME
SCATTERED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SCT-BKN MVFR
CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN MOISTURE. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO LIFT TO MVFR AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE
HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY...BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND PROJECTED TEMPS BY SUNRISE...THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA MINUS NEAR LAKE MI. NO CHANGES TO THE FROST
ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
LOW RH AND MO SUNNY SKIES. THE COMBO OF DRY AIR AND 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND 10-11C SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI WITH UPPER 40S AT THE LAKE MI SHORELINE VIA ELY FLOW.

FOR TNT...WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SD WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO SRN WI OR NRN IL BY 12Z
SUN. DESPITE PWS INCREASING TO ONE INCH...THE MOST FOCUSED LIFT IS
OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND
STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS AND WAA IS LOCATED. THUS ONLY 20-30 POPS FOR
SHOWERS LATE TNT OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SUNDAY AND MONDAY REMAIN TRICKY...PARTICULARLY WITH TEMPS...DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WARM FRONT LOCATION ALONG WITH A PRETTY TIGHT
TEMP GRADIENT. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY...AS ALL BUT
THE ECMWF HAVE THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT NEAR THE
LAKE...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A WARM SOUTHWEST BREEZE...THE NAM
MORE ALONG SHORE AND COOLER...AND THE ECMWF ONSHORE AND EVEN
COOLER FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTHWEST VS SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD RESULT IN A DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS
AROUND 20 DEGREES. MONDAY IS EVEN MORE TROUBLESOME...WITH MODELS
PRETTY SPLIT WITH WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE. OVERALL...SEEMS TO
BE A TREND TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH...SO BUMPED TEMPS UP.

WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY CAPPED THOUGH...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END THROUGH
THE DAY. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...SO HAVE INCREASING POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOOKS LIKE A GENERALLY COOLER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. COULD SEE TEMPS BRIEFLY SNEAK
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS. DOES LOOK WET WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. SCT-BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS FOR LATE TNT AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT.

MARINE...RELATIVELY LGT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TNT. INCREASING SLY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVE
HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY...BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV



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