Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 132053
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WARM TEMPS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION
PERSISTING. VISIBILITIES IMPROVED LATE MORNING FROM THE DENSE FOG
THAT OCCURRED...BUT HAVE NOT COME UP THAT MUCH...WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL 2 OR LESS MILES. HARD TO FIND A REASON THAT VISIBILITIES WILL
NOT GO RIGHT BACK DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUS A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...RUNNING FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.

THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEEPEN A
LITTLE...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 0.6 OR 0.7 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A
LITTLE LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...KEPT MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND CURRENT DEWPOINTS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL
TO AROUND 40 TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE TOWARD THE MILDER END
OF GUIDANCE...SO WENT WITH A SIMILAR MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES OFF TO THE
EASTERN U.S. AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT WEAKENS A LITTLE.
THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA...WHILE
THE NAM IS A LITTLE QUICKER REACHING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS NOW SLOWER AND A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN EVEN THE NAM. 700
MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IS STILL FAIRLY
WEAK...WITH MODERATE LIFT ON MONDAY. 700 MB RH INCREASES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. 850 MB IS SATURATED OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EXCEPT FOR THE ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. 925 MB
LAYERS ARE SIMILAR TO 850 WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE STATUS TO
BREAK FOR BRIEF TIMES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN WITH DEEPER
SATURATION AND SOME LIFT...LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA
TUESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES TO THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE AREA TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS THICKNESS AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.


.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THE
12Z GFS...BUT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THE 00Z ECMWF...TAKING IT TO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A RATHER
BRISK NORTH FLOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MEANWHILE A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BUILDS TOWARDS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT 500 MB.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE FLOW BECOMES WEAK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 500 MB WITH A
SPLIT FLOW JET PATTERN. THE STRONGER JET IS WELL NORTH ACROSS
CANADA...WITH THE SECOND JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRECIPITATION WITH A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACES.

VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY GO BACK DOWN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH DENSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAY
SEE SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATED LAYER DEEPENS A BIT.

.MARINE...

WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...RUNNING FROM
9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INLAND THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
LIKELY PUSHING THE FOG INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ


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