000
FXUS63 KMKX 120447 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.UPDATE...

PERSISTENT ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENTIC ZONE OVER W CENTRAL WI AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN WI. THEY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TOWARD MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.  00Z
MODEL RUNS INDICATING EXPECTED MCS THAT WAS TO DEVELOP IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OVER NEB/S DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND REACH SRN
WI WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY NOT OCCUR. THIS MAY MAKE REGION MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
EXPECTED STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WILL KEEP TAF SITES AT VFR WITH VICINITY SHOWERS UNTIL BETTER
PCPN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH WAA TOWARDS DAYBREAK...BUT NO WORSE THAN
MVFR. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES HANDLING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FOR SRN WI DUE TO DIFFERING LOCATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT
AND MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
A TRACK FOCUSING JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE BECOMING PREFERRED. WILL
KEEP MVFR VSBYS IN THUNDER AT TAF SITES THOUGH COULD SEE IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IF COMPLEX MOVES OVER SRN WI.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THOSE
CHANCES ARE SMALL AS NOTHING IS APPEARING YET ON SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT.
WILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON /EVENING AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STILL LOOKS AS IF BETER CHACNES
FOR SEVERE WILL BE SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. COULD SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BEHIND EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN IS WX/POPS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SSEO AND HI-RES
MODELS HIGHLIGHT A MCS MOVING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY
GOING INTO THE CWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...INGREDIENTS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION AS
1000-1500 OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH 40-50 OF DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR. LLJ WILL BE NOSING INTO IA AT THIS TIME. CONCERN WILL
BE LIFTING/FORCING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP
THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS MOISTURE
IN THE CWA...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRYNESS IN THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVELS. GIVEN SAID MOISTURE AND THE POSITION OF THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ...STAYED WITH JUST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TOMORROW...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED AS A ROBUST S/W TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PER
HI-RES GUIDANCE...CURRENT THINKING IS A MCS WILL BE TRACKING INTO
OUR AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OUR CWAS
BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS THE PREDOMINANT
THREAT. A BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE THEN POSSIBLE. LATER ON...SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S...35 TO 40 KTS DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...AND
500-1000 J/KG ML SHEAR WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR MULTICELLS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH AN
AFOREMENTIONED MCS PUSHING THROUGH IN THE MORNING...THE EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT COULD BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH AND COULD THEN LIMIT
SIGNIFICANTLY OUR CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX SHOULD BE SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM
COMBO. MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP GETTING
SOME PRECURSOR HEAVY RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH...TRACKING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT AND THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
PATTERN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT FOG AT TAF SITES AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE THE LARGER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT IS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CLIP THE AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS PUSHING THIS THREAT TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WENT WITH VICINITY THUNDER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THEN A SHORT REPRIEVE AFTERWARDS. REST OF
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BUT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN REGARD TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION. AS SUCH...KEPT VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS AND CB MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR WED AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE LAKE
AND THE PRESENT AIR MASS IS MOIST. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL
VEER FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AIR
MASS...INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

ELSE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE LAKE MICHIGANS FETCH AND MAY BRING WAVES THAT APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS IN OUR NEARSHORE ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...ET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS