Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 162016
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
316 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

IT WAS A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE TWIN CITIES DID CRACK THE
70 DEGREE BARRIER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT OUT OF AN
OCTOBER WITHOUT A 70 DEGREE READING. SINCE 1872...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN
FIVE OCTOBERS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT REACH 70.

OUR WARMTH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AND BLUSTERY FRIDAY.
THE CULPRIT IS A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THAT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. NAM PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FOR EASTERN AREAS.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVERING ND AND NORTHERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WERE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
TWIN CITIES ON NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN TOMORROW IS FROM RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EASTWARD WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

A DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DRY WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
MICHIGAN. 500MB HEIGHT RISES OFF THE NAM 16.12 OF NEARLY 10M/HR WILL
BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN PROMOTING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KEAU AND KRCX. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST
PVA IS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL WI...SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AREA
ACROSS THE MPX CWA WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER...BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT
WOULD BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND OMEGA.

HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS AND
LACK OF MECHANICAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S...WHICH IS BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID OCTOBER.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL...WITH SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

TWO CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE. THE FIRST IS STRONG NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS RIGHT ON THE DOOR STEP OF
KAXN AND KRWF. INDICATED NW WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD FOR THESE TWO SITES WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THE
FRONT WILL WORK EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE TWIN
CITIES IN THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME WITH WEST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WI THIS EVENING. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MN
WHILE SPREADING EAST ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS ON
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY WHERE 20-25 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30-35 KNOT
RANGE. THE SECOND CONCERN IS MVFR CEILINGS (015-025) OCCURRING IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS TIMING IN THE TAFS WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
MODEL DATA. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. A FEW SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT KRNH AND KEAU...BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. SHOWER CHANCES ARE
MUCH BETTER FARTHER EAST.

KMSP...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS SHIFTING WNW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS (020-025) SPREADING IN AROUND
09Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH






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