Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 280459

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1059 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a powerful shortwave
working across Kansas. Ahead of this pv feature and associated dry
slot, a band of showers and thunderstorms has developed across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa and this area is moving off to the
northeast toward SW MN at about 40 kts. High res models in really
good agreement on timing this initial band of rain in and through
the area and followed a blend of them to bring in the band of 100
PoPs from south to north across the area. Pretty much everything is
also in agreement on precip amounts with this rain coming in between
0.3" and 0.5" across the area.

Tonight, the dry slot over western KS will move into southern MN.
This will likely cut off the precipitation across the entire area by
the start of the day Monday, with redevelopment of showers/storms
expected along an occluded front late Monday morning into the
afternoon. In all likelihood, we probably have PoPs lingering too
long tonight/tomorrow morning, but differences among the hi-res and
deterministic models in the placement of the dry slot has us
likely bleeding a little too much PoP into Monday morning. For the
Monday afternoon activity, with the surface low nearby, ample
shear exists for a severe threat, but there is virtually no
surface based instability, which pretty much ends any severe
threat right there, but certainly this setup in say May would
probably be quite interesting.

For temperatures, beside rain, very warm temperatures are surging
north out of Nebraska and Iowa we should continue to see our
temperatures rise through the night. For most, highs for the
calendar day will be achieved right at 1159 pm. East of the
occluded boundary it will be very mild Monday, with highs in the 50
to 55 range likely. The record high for MSP Monday is 58. To achieve
this, it would need to be a cloud free dry slot and even then, 58 is
probably a little out of reach. However, those highs in the 50s for
eastern MN into western WI will be in the ballpark of 20 degrees
above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Much of the week will feature considerable cloudiness and
occasional light rain and/or snow showers as an upper low slowly
moves east across Minnesota and Wisconsin early to mid week. The
best chances for precip will be over western MN closest to the
upper low Monday night into early Wednesday until the wrap around
precip finally reaches Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon and the dry
slot heads east.

Temperatures will be fairly mild ahead and under the upper low
with diurnal spreads of only 2 to 5 degrees. Most of the precip
will be in the form of rain and thus snow accumulations are
expected to be meager and confined to near the SODAK border where
maybe an inch or two will fall through Wednesday.

A ridge will finally move in Friday with dry weather expected into
the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The majority of the rain has lifted north of the TAF sites, but
some light drizzle and low clouds will remain overnight. There is
a slot of dry air across eastern NE and western IA that is
forecast to make its way across southwest MN overnight, so do have
VFR conditions returning by early afternoon on Monday. A few
periods of rain showers are possible as the upper level cyclone
rotates overhead.

VFR conditions should return Monday afternoon. It is possible that
they could return sooner, but confidence is too low to get to
aggressive with the clearing later tonight. A few light rain
showers are possible overnight, but for the most part the majority
of the precipitation has ended at KMSP.

Tue...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.




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