Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS63 KMPX 100508 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

NOTE...AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY CAN BE
FOUND BELOW.

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. 09.12Z MODELS
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH...BUT DID FEATURE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING
FOR TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST /KAXN AREA/ AROUND 00Z...AND MARCHING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
FEATURE THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR...WHERE SATURATION IS RICHER. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE AROUND/UNDER FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT ACTUALLY STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S /WI AND NC MN/ TO AROUND 60 /SW MN/.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TAKES A TUMBLE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...SO FIRE
WX WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR MUCH COOLER CONDS NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGH AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...LEADING TO COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTRUSIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPS...EVEN
SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR BOTH RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING UPON THE SFC TEMPS.

A QUICK MOVING SHRTWV WILL BRUSH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
QPF. ALTHOUGH THE EC HAS A BROAD AREA OF QPF FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GEM/GFS HAS A SMALL AREA OF
CONCENTRATED QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP HIGH CHC POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PART OF MPX CWA.

A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY AFTN. THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS DURING
THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IS THE ASSOCIATED JET AND HOW BOTH THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
STREAMS COMBINE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN FRIDAY NIGHTS/SATURDAY SYSTEM IS PWATS INCREASE TO
ARND 0.80 TO 1.00" WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF AMTS/HIGHER MODEL POPS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THESE
PARAMETERS CHG AND WHETHER THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LIFT AND
ASSOCIATED QPF AMTS.

AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...NEXT WEEK REMAINS BLW NORMAL BUT THERE IS
NO BIG SIGNAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL PLAY HAVOC ON SFC BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND WHETHER ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO GENERATE QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT
FALLEN APART DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE.
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST AND BRIEFLY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

KMSP...WINDS ARE VEERING NORTHWEST AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME AND
INCREASING A BIT. THE INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH A DECREASE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL AN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS BCMG N
5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

YET ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY...POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 20S WILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO 25
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STOUT AS
WELL...SUSTAINED AT SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISING RIVER LEVELS OVER MOST
OF THE MPX AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH MINOR QPF
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ALL RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FS WITH
ONLY A COUPLE OVER ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER...IF ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF
ARRIVES AS FCST OVER THE CHIPPEWA WI BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WE
COULD SEE THE CHIPPEWA AT DURAND REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THAT THREAT.
OTHERWISE...ICE JAMS ARE A CONCERN AS THE BREAKUP GETS GOING NORTH
AND EAST OF MSP...WITH POTENTIAL UNFORECAST RAPID RISES POSSIBLE
WHEN THEY FORM.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
FIRE WEATHER...LS
HYDROLOGY...CCS









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.