Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 061201
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
601 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 557 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Early morning IR satellite imagery together with surface obs showed
a strong cold front that making its way near the coast across the
entire eastern 2/3 of the country. Meanwhile cold cloud tops
associated with the subtropical jet that fed into the powerful low
pressure system associated with this cold front extended all the way
from New Foundland down through the Baja out toward the eastern
Pacific.

Meanwhile closer to home northwest flow continued over the Upper
Midwest. A broad upper level shortwave over North Dakota will sweep
across Minnesota and Wisconsin and bring some light snow showers
today. Forecast soundings show omega and saturation within the
dendritic growth zone. Increased pops since most locations should
see some falling snow today, but accumulations will only be around a
trace. Northwest winds will continue at the surface with afternoon
gusts around 20 to 30 mph. Highs will only be in the upper teens to
lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A persistent ridge over the west coast through the long term period
means we will see a lot of northwesterly flow and cool temperatures,
along with a few chances of show showers/flurries.  With this
pattern, do not expect any significant storms to head our direction.

There will be a chance for light snow with minimal accumulation
potential Thursday night into Friday as a subtle shortwave slides
south through our area.  The upper jet oriented from north to south
will nose into MN leading to weak divergence aloft locally and hence
the chance for some light snow showers and flurries.  For Friday
night, the jet will continue to dive south and a decent shortwave
will race through eastern MN/western WI.  That will bring a better
chance of seeing some light snow.  It will move through very quickly
and moisture is modest, so would expect an inch of snow possible in
western WI with less in eastern MN.

The upper jet will rapidly weaken Saturday and the ridge will
encroach on our area Sunday, leading to highs above freezing most
likely.  Meanwhile, a strong ridge will redevelop over the west
coast and yet another strong northerly jet will develop downstream
of the ridge axis, which will again send colder air south through
the eastern half of the continent early next week.  The difference
between the GFS and EC is exactly where the jet lines up.  The EC is
farther east with it, which would imply more of a glancing blow from
the colder air coming south, whereas the GFS brings the coldest air
directly into MN and WI.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions early, but should see increasing MVFR clouds move
in from the north along with some snow showers. Not anticipating
much if any accumulation, but could have periods of reduced
visibility. Northwest winds will continue, and skies should clear
out Wednesday night.

KMSP...
Should see a few snow showers this afternoon, with reduced
visibility at times. Not much of any accumulation. Expect
northwest winds to continue throughout the TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...MVFR possible late with Chc -SN. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR possible early with Slgt Chc -SN. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
Sat...MVFR cigs possible. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB



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