Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 200012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH TOMORROW.

VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
STRONG AND GUSTY WNW WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER..WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH TIME THIS EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
BRIEFLY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO UNDER 2 MILES..BUT THESE ALSO
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHTER WINDS TO SUPPORT TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..READINGS SHOULD NOT GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. THURSDAY MAY STILL
BE A BIT BREEZY IN TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA..BUT
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIE OFF TO NEAR LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS WRN
MINNESOTA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE COMES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE AROUND MAJOR PUSH
OF WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY..AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

MAJOR PUSH OF WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY..WITH 850
TEMPS CLIMBING FROM AROUND -10C TO AROUND +5C IN LESS THAN 24
HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HINTING THAT A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURGE..WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN
LOTS OF STRATUS/FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AFTER A
SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MIGHT IN THIS DIRECTION..BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVELY AS WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WE ARE ALSO HESITANT
TO BUY INTO THE SURFACE TEMPS WARMING AS RAPIDLY AS MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AT THE MOMENT..WHICH MIGHT INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE PRECIP WILL
START OUT AS RAIN..BUT THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME..PRECISION ON EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNTS IS STILL HARD TO DO..BUT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MPX CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW
WINDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN BOTH INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND GUST WILL ALSO TAPER
OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...AND REMAIN VFR ON THURSDAY. A FEW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. AT THIS TIME COVERAGE IN A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER IS TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF BEYOND
01Z. ALSO...SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THOUGH
THURSDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR/FOG POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW 10G20KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH FZDZ/RA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JRB
SHORT...DLH
LONG...DLH





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