Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 271956
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

MESO-LOW MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE COAST THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW ONE MILE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE COAST FROM LUDINGTON TO MUSKEGON WITH A RECENT NEW SNOW REPORT
OF NEAR 4 INCHES AT LUDINGTON. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED TO RAISE
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST.

INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 12K FT PER GRR VWP BUT ARE
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE
HOURS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AS MESO-LOW HEADS TOWARD
KALAMAZOO...FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

HEAVY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH LIFR VIS / CIGS MAINLY ALONG
LAKESHORE FROM JUST WEST OF KMKG AND THEN ONSHORE BETWEEN KLWA AND
KAZO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. CURRENT TOPS 10-15 KFT WILL TREND TOWARDS 5-10 KFT BY 00Z.

ELSEWHERE LOOKING AT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SNOWSHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY TOO WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ICING POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND IN CLOUD ICING BELOW 10 KFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...COBB
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS








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