Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 190726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
MAINLY SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERGO A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME
UNTIL THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE RATHER MINIMAL. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER OUR ESE FCST AREA LATER TODAY OVER
TOWARD LAN/JXN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

OTHERWISE FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SLOW MODERATING TREND OF TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS BY
MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY IS PEAKING WITH LIFTED INDICES PROGGED TO BE AROUND
MINUS 6 AS THE SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OR
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES LIFT. HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS.

THE TREND WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUICKER WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PRECIP...WITH DRYING WORKING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE TAF SITES WEST OF US-69 JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOSTLY. MKG WILL SEE THE LAKE BREEZE SHIFT THE
WIND TO SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE TAF SITES NEAR AND EAST OF US-69 THERE IS A CHANCE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE RESULT OF A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PART OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE JXN AND
MAYBE THE LAN TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. I PUT VCSH FOR THOSE TAF SITES TO COVER THIS. EVEN IF
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS THERE FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS SHOULD
STAY VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND OF AT TO MAINLY BELOW TWO FEET
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

LITTLE OR NO QPF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS FALLING RIVER
LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...LAURENS








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