Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 260011
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
811 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
TOWARD LANSING AND JACKSON.

A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW COULD HAVE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF COOLER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
THE HIGH STILL IN CONTROL. HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WET AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING SOMEWHAT HUNG UP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA FRIDAY AS A TRAILING LOW RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
MOVE THE COLD FRONT EAST QUICKER RESULTING IN A DRY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER AND LINGERS PCPN INTO
MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AIR MASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SFC DEW PTS OF 70-75. ONCE SOME THINNING
OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z
SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LIGHT WINDS IT WOULD SEEM THAT IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 10Z-13Z.

THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER LWR MI AT 12Z. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING... BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE TAFS
TONIGHT SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW. DID HOWEVER GO WITH
VCTS FOR LAN AND JXN ON TUESDAY AFTER 16Z SINCE THE SFC FRONT
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THESE SITES AFTER SOME HEATING TAKES
PLACE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

WIND AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF MUSKEGON WHERE THEY MAY BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE
TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 96.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO





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