Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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450
FXUS63 KGRR 051516
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1116 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SOME CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...
WITH EVEN A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
60S. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
AND HIGHS AROUND 70.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL
BE THE COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER THE COLD AND DAMP DAY THE AREA HAD ON
WEDNESDAY.

LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE SETTLED IN THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO
BE RATHER EXPANSIVE THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE
UPPER FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC EARLY ON. VERTICAL EXTENT OF
THE CU WILL BE LIMITED...BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.

WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING FINALLY MOVE IN
AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE ALSO...WITH H850 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND 10C LATE IN THE
DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS UP AROUND 70 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND A STORM MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN...AND A
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SE TOWARD THE NRN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL PUSH A SFC FRONT THROUGH BEGINNING AFTER 06Z SAT AND SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY 18Z SAT. THERE ARE ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME RAIN. ELEVATED
LI/S ARE BELOW ZERO C...SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ALSO. THE TIMING AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE CHCS RATHER LOW. WE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SAT AFTERNOON AND WARM INTO THE 60S WITH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

OVERALL TREND IS FOR A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE LOWS ON SATURDAY
AND MONDAY...SO THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF DRY WEATHER SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH IS
BRIEFLY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOIST RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR MONDAY
BUT RAINS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
ADVANCING WESTERN CONUS CUTOFF LOW.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK UNSETTLED IN A PATTERN OF MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT. THERE
COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
ENOUGH TO LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

CEILINGS AROUND 800 TO 900 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY 18Z. VFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DECREASED THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE DROPPED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY POSTED FOR THE GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA... THE THORNAPPLE RIVER IN HASTINGS AND THE MAPLE RIVER IN
MAPLE RAPIDS. ALL RIVER LEVELS AT THESE SITES ARE RISING. THEY ARE
AT OR JUST ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS AND SHOULD CREST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A FEW OTHER SITES ARE FORECAST TO CREST BY THE
WEEKEND. RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND MAY SLOW THE FALL OF LEVELS... BUT
THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO



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