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000
FXUS63 KGRR 062351
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
651 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 40 ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE DAY.  A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SNOW...COULD BE SEEN TOWARD EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT SATURDAY
MORNING.  A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY.  HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH.  THE SNOW WILL END OVER
MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER
NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

NO BIG STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...BUT MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN COOLING INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.  HOW MUCH PCPN AND THE PCPN TYPE WAS THE CONCERN.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD LEVEL OFF LATE
TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.  SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE MORNING SUN AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS TEMPS WILL CLIMB NICELY WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...AROUND 40.

THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BATTLE DRY LOW LEVELS AS THE FRONT REACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY EVENING.  MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
DAY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF I-96...THAT MAY MIX WITH SNOW.  THE FRONT
THEN COMES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE CWA ALL NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE BORDER.  TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS RAIN...SWITCHING TO A BRIEF PERIOD SLEET...THEN
MOSTLY SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  HAVE ADDED THE MIXED PCPN TO
THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  IF WE DO SEE ANY ISSUES IT WOULD BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 AS THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES BY...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED...LESS THAN AN
INCH.  I INCREASED POPS FOR BOTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH.  THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ADDED A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A NW
FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE.  ALSO BUMPED UP MINS AS WE MAY HANG TO A
FAIR AMOUNT CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

TEMPS WILL AVERAGE FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM MAY
BRING A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HOWEVER THE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A RETURN TO BELOW OR EVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL OCCUR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM GULF
SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY SOUTH TO SE
OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THOUGH WITH 12Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A STRONG A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

WINDS WILL BE VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND INTO FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECTING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. BY 00Z...COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS WORK THEIR WAY
INTO MKG/GRR/AZO PER LATEST GFS/NAM BUFKIT RH OVERVIEWS. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING IFR FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT FOR THE 06Z TAFS
COULD ENVISION ADDING CIGS THAT WOULD YIELD IFR OR NEAR IFR
STATUS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 40 FRIDAY...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
SATURDAY...WE WILL SEE SOME GRADUAL SNOW MELT.  CURRENT SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE AND LARGELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. WITHOUT MUCH RAIN IN THE FORECAST
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...STABLE RIVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE IS LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...JK