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000
FXUS63 KGRR 170726
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL
INTO THE 50S IN SPITE OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A
MODERATING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
LIKELY NOT COMING UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S TODAY IN SPITE OF A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE AS WINDS VEER A
BIT MORE TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER DRY WX SHOULD PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. MILDER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY
AND WE TWEAKED THE MAX TEMP FCST UP BY SEVERAL DEGREES. QUITE A
BIT OF SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THERE IS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY BUT WASHES OUT WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WIND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE VFR CATEGORY WILL BE ABUNDANT THOUGH. A FEW GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EVART RIVER LEVELS REMAIN IN RECORD TERRITORY WHILE SCOTTVILLE AND
CROTON HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING. THE ONLY
OTHER WARNING OF NOTE IS MOUNT PLEASANT WHICH IS EXPERIENCING MINOR
FLOODING. THERES BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SHEER NUMBER OF THE SEVERAL
REMAINING ADVISORIES STILL OUT.

THERE IS A BIG POSITIVE HERE. RIVER LEVELS HAVE EITHER ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CRESTS OR ARE CURRENTLY DOING SO...INCLUDING EVART.
ADDITIONALLY...NO REAL ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A QUICK SPRINKLE MAY MIX IN WITH A FLURRY OR
TWO NORTH OF MUSKEGON TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. THEN LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NOT HAVING ANY REAL IMPACT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM