Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 260423
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1223 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
TOWARD LANSING AND JACKSON.

A COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW COULD HAVE HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE SFC FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PUSH OF COOLER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIR ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THURSDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
THE HIGH STILL IN CONTROL. HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WET AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING SOMEWHAT HUNG UP OVER
THE CENTRAL CWA FRIDAY AS A TRAILING LOW RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
MOVE THE COLD FRONT EAST QUICKER RESULTING IN A DRY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER AND LINGERS PCPN INTO
MONDAY. HIGHS 75-80 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

GOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST
WITH SFC DEW PTS AROUND 70 AND THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH HAS BEEN
IN PLACE ALL EVENING IS NOW STARTING TO THIN WITH A BACK EDGE ALSO
MOVING EAST ACROSS LK MI. LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
ROUGHLY 10Z TO 13Z ALTHOUGH MKG MAY BE SPARED FROM IFR SINCE THE
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AROUND THAT TIME.

THE THREAT FOR ANY TSTMS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS MAINLY
EAST OF GRR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AT LAN AND JXN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE FROPA WHICH SENDS IN DRIER AIR AS WELL AS
STABLE MARINE AIR OFF LK MI. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

WIND AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF MUSKEGON WHERE THEY MAY BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW A MILE
TONIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY EAST OF US-131. THESE
STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WIDESPREAD
HYDRO IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO






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